125
FXUS64 KEPZ 290456
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1056 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, RUNNING
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWLAND HIGHS 100 TO 107 EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE FOR THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH REMAINS FIXED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
AND WILL SIT THERE THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF LATE JULY.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. GFS
500-MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES SUGGEST THIS HIGH IS 3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN IS TYPICAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN MONSOON. THE PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN, AS ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY RECYCLED
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE/TERRAIN FORCING PRODUCING
MEAGER INSTABILITY. THE MONSOONAL PLUME WILL BE BROAD AND DIFFUSE,
BUT GENERALLY FAVOR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO,
WITH DRIER AIR FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
DOWNTREND IN STORM CHANCES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS,
AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL PUT IT DIRECTLY
OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, ACTING AS A SUPPRESSANT WITH SUBSIDENT
500-MB FLOW CAUSING A WARMING EFFECT ALOFT AND EATING AWAY AT
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGH TERRAIN
MAY STILL SEE ISOLATED (10-30% COVERAGE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AFTERNOONS, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL
REMAIN DRY.
THE MAIN HEADLINE FOR THE DESERT LOWLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT
TEMPERATURES. SUFFOCATING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROMOTE VERY HOT
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS, FOLLOWED BY LITTLE RELIEF OVERNIGHT. HIGHS
WILL RUN 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY, WHICH MEANS
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE 102 TO 106 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EL PASO AND THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED BACK
INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WARMER-
THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN NM HIGH ELEVATIONS.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE IN A SLIGHT RETROGRADE OF THE UPPER HIGH AS
WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
BETTER STORM COVERAGE AND SOME INTERESTING NORTH FLOW ALOFT THIS
UPCOMING SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. SOME
LINGERING TSRA ACROSS SOUTHWEST NM TONIGHT, CLEARING AFTER 08Z.
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS 280-360 AT 5-10 KNOTS ACROSS S NM, WITH SKIES
FEW-SCT150. DRIER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO LOWER
STORM COVERAGE OVER MTNS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR KELP. SE
SURFACE WINDS 100-150 AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS MID-AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. MOST AREAS
REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH LIGHT S-SE WINDS AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.
STORM CHANCES DECREASE WED/THU TO THE WEST AS TEMPS REMAIN HOT.
AREA MTNS WILL SEE BETTER STORM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY COVERAGE IN THE LOWLANDS. TEMPS COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FOR THE
WEEKEND. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 12-30% THROUGH FRI. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO
VERY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 104 78 104 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 99 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 71 102 74 102 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 73 102 74 102 / 0 10 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 56 79 55 78 / 10 10 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 101 74 101 / 10 10 20 10
SILVER CITY 64 94 67 95 / 20 30 30 30
DEMING 71 103 75 104 / 10 10 10 0
LORDSBURG 70 100 73 102 / 20 20 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 103 80 104 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 71 102 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 76 106 77 106 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 70 97 71 97 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 76 103 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 75 102 76 103 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 78 104 78 104 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 74 103 76 104 / 10 0 10 0
HATCH 73 104 76 105 / 10 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 75 103 77 104 / 20 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 72 102 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 61 89 61 90 / 10 10 0 20
MESCALERO 60 91 61 91 / 10 10 10 20
TIMBERON 58 88 58 88 / 10 10 0 20
WINSTON 63 93 63 93 / 20 20 30 40
HILLSBORO 71 99 72 100 / 10 20 20 20
SPACEPORT 71 101 73 102 / 10 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 59 94 61 95 / 20 30 30 40
HURLEY 65 97 68 98 / 10 30 30 20
CLIFF 65 101 69 102 / 10 20 20 20
MULE CREEK 63 96 67 98 / 20 10 20 10
FAYWOOD 68 97 70 98 / 10 20 20 10
ANIMAS 69 100 73 102 / 40 20 20 0
HACHITA 69 100 72 101 / 30 20 20 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 99 71 101 / 30 20 20 0
CLOVERDALE 65 93 68 97 / 30 30 30 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHERN
GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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