025
FXUS64 KEPZ 291158
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
558 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 312 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, RUNNING
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWLAND HIGHS 100 TO 107 EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE FOR THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH REMAINS FIXED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
AND WILL SIT THERE THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF LATE JULY.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. GFS
500-MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES SUGGEST THIS HIGH IS 3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN IS TYPICAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN MONSOON. THE PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN, AS ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY RECYCLED
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE/TERRAIN FORCING PRODUCING
MEAGER INSTABILITY. THE MONSOONAL PLUME WILL BE BROAD AND DIFFUSE,
BUT GENERALLY FAVOR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO,
WITH DRIER AIR FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
DOWNTREND IN STORM CHANCES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS,
AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL PUT IT DIRECTLY
OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, ACTING AS A SUPPRESSANT WITH SUBSIDENT
500-MB FLOW CAUSING A WARMING EFFECT ALOFT AND EATING AWAY AT
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGH TERRAIN
MAY STILL SEE ISOLATED (10-30% COVERAGE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AFTERNOONS, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL
REMAIN DRY.
THE MAIN HEADLINE FOR THE DESERT LOWLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT
TEMPERATURES. SUFFOCATING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROMOTE VERY HOT
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS, FOLLOWED BY LITTLE RELIEF OVERNIGHT. HIGHS
WILL RUN 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY, WHICH MEANS
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE 102 TO 106 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EL PASO AND THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED BACK
INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WARMER-
THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN NM HIGH ELEVATIONS.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE IN A SLIGHT RETROGRADE OF THE UPPER HIGH AS
WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
BETTER STORM COVERAGE AND SOME INTERESTING NORTH FLOW ALOFT THIS
UPCOMING SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS WE SAW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP, BUT THEY WERE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. ALSO LIKE YESTERDAY, THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. AWAY FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST, WITH KTCS
AND KDMN BEING THE EXCEPTION WITH A FEW HOURS OF LOW END WIND GUST
THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE UNLIMITED,
BUT BY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WE MAY SEE SOME MID AND HIGH
CEILINGS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HEAT WILL AGAIN BE A PROBLEM, SO IF
YOU WORK OUTSIDE BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE PLENTY OF
BREAKS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
DESPITE THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN
LOW OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. MIN RH'S TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN
THE 20'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS. FOR THE WEEKEND MIN RH'S WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER. WE WILL SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE, THIS LOW THREAT FOR RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE AN
UPTICK IN OUR RAIN CHANCES. WINDS AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STAY WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. VENTILATION RATES TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 78 104 78 105 / 0 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 99 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 74 102 74 104 / 0 0 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 74 102 75 103 / 0 10 10 30
CLOUDCROFT 55 78 57 79 / 10 20 20 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 74 101 75 102 / 20 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 67 95 67 97 / 30 30 20 60
DEMING 75 104 76 106 / 10 0 10 0
LORDSBURG 73 102 74 104 / 20 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 80 104 81 105 / 0 0 10 0
DELL CITY 72 102 73 104 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 77 106 77 108 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 71 97 72 99 / 0 0 10 0
FABENS 77 104 77 105 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 76 103 77 105 / 0 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 78 104 79 105 / 0 0 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 76 104 77 104 / 10 0 10 0
HATCH 76 105 76 107 / 10 0 10 0
COLUMBUS 77 104 78 106 / 10 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 72 102 73 103 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 61 90 61 90 / 0 20 10 40
MESCALERO 61 91 62 91 / 10 20 20 60
TIMBERON 58 88 59 88 / 0 20 20 30
WINSTON 63 93 64 94 / 30 40 20 40
HILLSBORO 72 100 73 101 / 20 20 10 20
SPACEPORT 73 102 74 103 / 10 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 61 95 61 96 / 30 40 20 60
HURLEY 68 98 69 100 / 30 20 10 50
CLIFF 69 102 70 103 / 20 20 10 50
MULE CREEK 67 98 68 100 / 20 10 20 40
FAYWOOD 70 98 71 100 / 20 10 10 30
ANIMAS 73 102 74 106 / 20 0 10 0
HACHITA 72 101 74 103 / 20 0 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 71 101 72 105 / 20 0 10 0
CLOVERDALE 68 97 68 100 / 30 0 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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