738
FXUS64 KEPZ 121140
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
540 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
- INCREASING STORM COVERAGE THIS WEEK, BECOMING SCATTERED AREA
WIDE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HIGHEST RISK FOR FLOODING
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER MOUNTAIN ZONES.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT FEW DAYS. TYPICAL MID-AUGUST
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID-90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
A PATTERN SHIFT IS UNDERWAY. THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH HAS WEAKENED
WITH A NEW CENTER OVER TX. THIS IS TURNING FLOW FROM EAST TO WEST
TO SOUTH TO NORTH. MOISTENING IS UNDERWAY AS WELL, AND WE SAW AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT THOUGH IT HAD
RESULTED IN A LOT OF DUST THANKS TO HIGH TEMPERATURE - DEWPOINT
SPREADS. WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WHICH WILL GIVE US DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
WITH PW VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.25-1.5", HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THESE RAINFALL CHANCES WILL
ESPECIALLY BE ENHANCED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANY SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS.
THE GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO SHOW A NOTABLE TROUGH/LOW PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE, HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL. WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A
BREAK FROM THE 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES.
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. THE GFS AND EURO
SHOW THE HIGH PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN POOR
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HOW FAR WEST IT SHIFTS AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR
SHIFTS IN WITH IT. A LOOK AT THE LREF THOUGH DOES SHOW A DISTINCT
DOWNWARD TURN IN MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS SCT-BKN150 BKN250 ACROSS S NM AND W TX.
SURFACE WINDS 210-260 AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS. ISOLATED TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SKIES FEW-SCT100CB. VCTS MENTION INCLUDED AT KTCS,
BUT OMITTED FROM OTHER SITES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT
IMPACTS. KELP WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR OUTFLOW OUT OF MEXICO
BETWEEN 00-03Z, WHICH COULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY 20G30KT AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
SCATTERED (40-60%) THUNDERSTORMS FOR GILA NF, ISOLATED (20-40%)
FOR LINCOLN NF TODAY. WETTER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE MIN RH TO
30-40%. SW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH LEADING TO GOOD VENT RATES.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS OVER MOUNTAINS.
NEW RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
BUT MOSTLY LIKELY 0.50-1.00" OVER LOCAL FORESTS. PREVAILING
SW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH FRIDAY SHIFTING TO THE SE OVER THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 95 73 96 / 20 0 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 67 91 67 92 / 20 10 50 30
LAS CRUCES 67 93 67 95 / 20 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 69 94 69 95 / 20 0 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 52 71 52 72 / 20 10 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 93 68 93 / 20 30 10 10
SILVER CITY 59 83 59 86 / 30 30 10 20
DEMING 66 92 66 95 / 20 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 66 88 65 90 / 40 20 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 94 73 96 / 20 0 10 10
DELL CITY 72 97 71 97 / 10 0 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 74 97 74 98 / 20 0 40 30
LOMA LINDA 67 88 67 89 / 20 0 10 10
FABENS 72 95 72 96 / 30 0 30 10
SANTA TERESA 71 93 71 94 / 20 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 94 72 95 / 20 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 68 94 68 95 / 20 0 0 10
HATCH 68 97 68 98 / 30 10 0 10
COLUMBUS 71 93 71 95 / 20 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 67 93 68 93 / 20 0 0 10
MAYHILL 59 85 58 84 / 10 10 0 60
MESCALERO 57 82 57 82 / 10 10 10 50
TIMBERON 54 81 54 81 / 10 10 10 30
WINSTON 57 83 57 84 / 20 60 10 60
HILLSBORO 63 91 63 92 / 20 30 0 30
SPACEPORT 66 93 66 94 / 20 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 55 83 55 85 / 30 40 10 50
HURLEY 61 87 60 89 / 30 20 0 20
CLIFF 64 89 63 91 / 40 40 10 20
MULE CREEK 61 84 61 86 / 50 40 10 10
FAYWOOD 63 87 62 89 / 20 20 0 20
ANIMAS 66 87 65 90 / 40 30 10 20
HACHITA 65 88 65 91 / 20 10 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 87 65 89 / 20 20 10 30
CLOVERDALE 61 81 62 83 / 30 20 20 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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