203
FXUS64 KEPZ 131121
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
521 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MOSTLY LIMITED TO
WESTERN NM. INCREASING STORM COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND, BECOMING
SCATTERED AREA WIDE. STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- TYPICAL MID-AUGUST TEMPERATURES NEXT FEW DAYS, BECOMING WARMER
AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
PERHAPS THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST IS IN THE NEXT
3 TO 6 HOURS. MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES, BUT WITH VERY WEAK FORCING.
AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHED THROUGH EPZ AROUND 9:30 PM,
SPARKING A HIGHLY LOCALIZED SHOWER THAT DROPPED 0.08 INCHES IN
JUST A FEW MINUTES. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
CROPPING UP OVER WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY, AND EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS IN OTERO HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
SEVERAL CAMS, INCLUDING THE 00Z HRRR AND MOST RRFS MEMBERS, HAVE
BEEN INDICATING AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IN FAR WEST
TEXAS. SOME NEARER TO ELP, OTHERS IN WESTERN HUDSPETH, WITH SOME
VARIABILITY IN TIMING. A FEW OF THE HRRR RUNS PRIOR TO 00Z GAVE UP
ON THIS IDEA. AND NONE OF THE 00Z CAMS RUNS REALLY MATCH REALITY,
MOST RUNNING TOO HOT WITH PRECIP ON HUDSPETH, WHILE SHOWING IT
EXTENDING WELL SOUTH INTO CHIHUAHUA. THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF AHUMADA IS NOT WELL HANDLED AT ALL.
THAT WEAK LITTLE BOUNDARY THAT HELPED SPARK OUR LOCAL SHOWER
LOOKS TO HAVE PUSHED OUT TOWARDS LOOP-375 ON THE EAST SIDE, BUT
IT'S TOO SHALLOW TO SHOW UP ON HDX, AND MOSTLY BLOCKED NOW BY THE
FRANKLINS ON EPZ. THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO FLARE UP A BIT IN HUDSPETH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WHETHER THAT'S ENOUGH TO PUSH STORMS WEST TOWARDS EL PASO LIKE A
FEW RRFS MEMBERS SUGGEST IS MOSTLY A COIN-FLIP, BUT I'M LEANING
TOWARDS PRECIP STAYING WEST OF TOWN, WITH 30-POPS REACHING AS FAR
WEST AS THE AIRPORT. IF WE GET ANY SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW FROM THE
SOUTH, IT'LL BE AT LEAST 3-4 HOURS FROM NOW, AND IT'S HARD TO PIN
HOPES ON THAT.
GOING FORWARD, THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOK TO REMAIN COOLER AND
MOISTER, BUT THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MEDIOCRE
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MOSTLY FOCUSED ON THE
MOUNTAINS. LATER FRIDAY SEEMS LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE SAY AS WEAK
CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED DISTURBANCES ROLL UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
WHILE PWAT VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES. THE UPPER-MOST
LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE START TO SHOW DIFFLUENT FLOW, BUT MOSTLY
FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE BORDER LATE FRIDAY AS WELL, AHEAD OF AN
APPARENT LATE-SEASON INVERTED TROUGH ROLLING INTO COAHUILA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
VCSH AROUND KELP THIS MORNING FROM DECAYING TS. SSW GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS THROUGH 16Z. SKIES BKN-OVC120 AT KELP THIS MORNING,
SCT120 ACROSS SW NM. ISOLATED TS ACROSS W NM THIS AFTERNOON. TS
MENTION INCLUDED AT KTCS, BUT NOT THE OTHER TAF SITES DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE. SKIES GENERALLY SCT-BKN100 WITH SURFACE WINDS 230-260
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
SCATTERED (30-50%) THUNDERSTORMS FOR GILA NF, BUT LINCOLN NF WILL
BE MOSTLY DRY TODAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE PRESENT, WITH MIN RH
35-45% AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH LEADING TO GOOD VENT
RATES.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER STORM COVERAGE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS OVER MOUNTAINS. NEW RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, BUT MOSTLY
LIKELY 0.50-1.00" OVER LOCAL FORESTS. PREVAILING SW WINDS 10 TO 15
MPH THROUGH FRIDAY SHIFTING TO THE SE OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 96 73 98 / 10 10 10 20
SIERRA BLANCA 67 92 65 93 / 30 30 40 30
LAS CRUCES 67 94 67 96 / 10 10 10 20
ALAMOGORDO 69 95 70 95 / 10 10 10 40
CLOUDCROFT 51 72 52 71 / 10 30 20 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 93 69 94 / 10 10 0 10
SILVER CITY 59 86 61 88 / 10 10 0 20
DEMING 66 94 67 97 / 10 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 66 91 67 94 / 10 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 96 74 97 / 10 10 10 20
DELL CITY 71 97 70 97 / 10 20 30 20
FORT HANCOCK 74 98 73 99 / 30 30 40 30
LOMA LINDA 67 89 67 90 / 10 10 30 40
FABENS 73 96 72 98 / 20 10 30 20
SANTA TERESA 71 94 71 96 / 10 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 95 73 96 / 10 10 10 40
JORNADA RANGE 68 95 69 95 / 10 10 10 30
HATCH 68 98 69 99 / 10 0 0 20
COLUMBUS 71 94 72 97 / 10 10 10 10
OROGRANDE 68 94 68 94 / 10 10 20 30
MAYHILL 58 84 57 83 / 0 40 20 80
MESCALERO 56 83 57 83 / 10 30 10 70
TIMBERON 54 82 55 81 / 10 20 20 60
WINSTON 56 84 57 85 / 20 40 10 40
HILLSBORO 63 92 64 93 / 10 20 0 30
SPACEPORT 66 94 66 95 / 10 10 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 54 85 55 87 / 10 20 0 30
HURLEY 60 89 62 91 / 10 10 0 10
CLIFF 63 91 64 95 / 10 10 0 10
MULE CREEK 60 86 62 90 / 10 10 0 10
FAYWOOD 62 89 64 91 / 10 10 0 20
ANIMAS 65 90 67 93 / 20 10 0 10
HACHITA 65 91 67 94 / 10 0 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 90 66 92 / 10 20 10 10
CLOVERDALE 62 84 63 88 / 10 10 0 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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