705
FXUS64 KEPZ 141138
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
538 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 511 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT INTO FAR
WEST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED OVER SW NEW
MEXICO TOMORROW. HIGHLY LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSING NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL FAVOR AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ON SATURDAY, AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE ON SUNDAY.
- ANOTHER DRY AND WARMER SPELL IS ON THE WAY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
IT WAS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE TODAY, AT LEAST OVER THE GILA REGION
IN TERMS OF CONVECTION, BUT FAIRLY QUIET EVERYWHERE ELSE. NOW
WE'RE FACED WITH A VERY SIMILAR SCENARIO TO LAST NIGHT. A VERY
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ONCE AGAIN DRIFTING ACROSS EL PASO,
THOUGH WITHOUT SPARKING OFF ANY LITTLE RENEGADE SHOWERS. WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS ARE PRESENT ACROSS CHIHUAHUA JUST SOUTH OF
AHUMADA, AND SEVERAL CAMS RUNS SHOW SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN DRIFTING NORTH INTO PARTS OF EL PASO
AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES IN THE WEE HOURS, AFTER ABOUT 1-2 AM. THE
RRFS MEMBERS HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY THAN USUAL, AND THEY
FAVOR PULLING PRECIP UP A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN RECENT
HRRR RUNS, CLIPPING EASTERN EL PASO, AND PERHAPS MAINTAINING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FOR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. ONCE AGAIN PLAYED THE POPS VERY CLOSE TO ELP, WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) GENERALLY OVER THE WEST SIDE, AND RAMPING
UP TO ABOUT 40-50 IN THE FAR EAST SIDE OF TOWN. BETTER CHANCES
(60 PERCENT) WILL BE OVER EAST EL PASO COUNTY INTO FAR WESTERN
HUDSPETH.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO, WITH A CLOSED
LOW EVEN SHOWING UP DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB. IT FITS CONCEPTUAL
MODELS PRETTY NICELY, WITH MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES KICKING OFF AN MCS
IN NORTHERN SINALOA, AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WELL WEST OF
THE LOW. A TONGUE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR EXTENDS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION DOWN TOWARDS THE LOWER PECOS VALLEY, AND ANOTHER AREA OF
DIMINISHING CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CHIHUAHUA UP THROUGH
THE TRANS-PECOS REGION...IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
AND AN ILL-DEFINED PV ANOMALY AROUND THE 345K LEVEL, WHERE YOU'D
EXPECT IT TO BE IN RELATION TO THE UPPER LOW.
MEANWHILE, MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STREAM
MOISTURE FROM THE SIERRA MADRES UP INTO THE AREA. BUT THE UPTICK
IN PWAT VALUES HAS MOSTLY GONE TO WASTE DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING
AND SO-SO INSTABILITY (SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, AND A BIT OF CIN IF
YOU CONSIDER THE MIXED LAYER AS A PARCEL STARTING POINT).
SO REALLY, THE MAIN DRIVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THAT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LOW. BUT IT WILL BE CRAWLING WEST OVERNIGHT, WITH THE
FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION SETTING UP NEARLY IN THE SAME SPOT IN
"NEAR WEST" TEXAS TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND STABILIZATION
FROM ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD QUASH PRECIP CHANCES
IN AND AROUND EL PASO TOMORROW. FURTHER WEST, WE'LL SEE A NEAR
REPEAT OF TODAY AROUND THE GILA AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS DOWN IN THE
BOOTHEEL.
SATURDAY IS THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO
COAHUILA. THE PV ANOMALY BAND DRIFTS INTO AREAS EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE, JUST BEHIND A HIGH-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. ESSENTIALLY THE
FAVORED AREA JUST TO OUR EAST WILL FINALLY DRIFT OVER US. A BIT OF
LOW LEVEL SE FLOW WILL HELP TOP-OFF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS
A BIT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD, "BEEFIER" CONVECTION OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND A SECONDARY FOCUS OVER THE BLACK
RANGE, WITH NE TO SW STORM MOTIONS FAVORING OUTFLOW CONVERGENCE IN
THE LOWLANDS DURING THE EVENING. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN,
OBVIOUSLY, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS.
SUNDAY, WE'LL HAVE TO DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND
STABILIZATIONCONCERNS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE UPPER
LOW WILL BARELY INCH INTO EASTERN CHIHUAHUA, FOCUSING THE BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORMS OVER SW NEW MEXICO. SOME DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO EASTERN AREAS, BUT THE DRY TONGUE WILL BE
SLOWLY FILLING IN A BIT. 500 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB FROM AROUND -6C
SATURDAY TO -4C SUNDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS TOO, FURTHER SUPPORTING
A DROPOFF IN CONVECTION CHANCES EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LOW, OR PERHAPS WEAKENED INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH, WILL
PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT, USUALLY THE LEAST-FAVORED
REGION FOR UPPER SUPPORT. SOMETIMES THE BACKSIDE OF THESE THINGS
CAN BRING ANOTHER UPTICK, BUT THE INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO DAMPEN
OUT FOR MONDAY.
WE'LL STILL BE IN MONSOONAL EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE SPRAWLING BACK TO THE WEST AGAIN, WITH
SOME WARMER/DRIER AIR WORKING IN AS WELL. THIS FAVORS A DOWNTICK
IN CONVECTION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
ATTEMPTING TO TICK BACK UP TOWARDS THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN THE
LOWLANDS AGAIN. PERHAPS SOME RELIEF MID-WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH
TRIES TO DROP DOWN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE? LONG WAY TO GO.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE TODAY, BUT STILL NOTHING TO KICK
STORMS OFF, SO LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS, MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO AREA MOUNTAINS, WITH JUST A FEW STORMS IN THE
LOWLANDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY, EXCEPT FOR OUTFLOW WINDS
WHICH CAN TRAVEL GREAT DISTANCES FROM THEIR PARENT THUNDERSTORMS.
WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CEILINGS THIS MORNING, BUT BY THE AFTERNOON
WE COULD SEE SOME MID CEILINGS FROM TIME TO TIME. BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOWER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY WILL
BE IN AREA MOUNTAINS, BUT THEN FOR SATURDAY WE WILL SEE BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION, BEFORE THINGS START TO DRY BACK
OUT FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MIN RH'S TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20%. WE WILL SEE NEAR AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THEN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AND THAT WILL DRIVE OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE AVERAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 98 73 98 / 20 40 40 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 93 65 92 / 30 50 20 10
LAS CRUCES 67 96 68 96 / 20 40 30 10
ALAMOGORDO 69 95 69 95 / 20 60 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 52 72 52 72 / 20 80 20 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 95 70 95 / 20 20 10 20
SILVER CITY 60 89 62 89 / 20 20 10 50
DEMING 67 97 68 97 / 20 20 10 30
LORDSBURG 66 95 68 96 / 10 10 0 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 98 74 97 / 20 40 40 0
DELL CITY 70 97 69 97 / 20 30 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 99 73 99 / 20 40 20 10
LOMA LINDA 67 90 67 90 / 20 60 40 0
FABENS 72 98 71 98 / 20 40 30 0
SANTA TERESA 71 96 71 96 / 20 40 40 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 96 72 96 / 20 50 30 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 96 69 96 / 20 50 20 10
HATCH 68 99 69 99 / 20 30 20 20
COLUMBUS 72 97 72 97 / 20 30 20 10
OROGRANDE 68 94 67 94 / 20 60 20 10
MAYHILL 57 84 56 83 / 20 80 20 30
MESCALERO 56 83 55 83 / 20 80 20 50
TIMBERON 54 82 53 82 / 20 80 20 30
WINSTON 57 86 59 87 / 30 20 10 40
HILLSBORO 64 93 66 94 / 20 30 20 40
SPACEPORT 66 95 67 96 / 20 40 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 54 87 57 88 / 20 20 10 60
HURLEY 62 92 64 92 / 20 20 10 40
CLIFF 63 95 65 96 / 10 10 0 40
MULE CREEK 61 90 63 93 / 20 10 0 30
FAYWOOD 63 91 65 92 / 20 20 10 40
ANIMAS 67 93 68 96 / 10 20 10 30
HACHITA 67 94 68 95 / 20 20 10 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 93 67 94 / 20 20 20 30
CLOVERDALE 64 88 64 90 / 10 20 10 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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