122
FXUS64 KEPZ 151224
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
624 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 603 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
- AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, INCLUDING IN THE LOWLANDS,
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, AS AN UPPER LOW TRAVELS
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD, TYPICAL FOR MID-END MONSOON DAYS.
- ANOTHER DRY AND WARMER SPELL IS ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK, BUT
IT MAY BE BRIEF, AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS WEST OF THE AREA, AND
OPENS US UP TO WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
TODAY WENT MORE OR LESS AS EXPECTED, WITH STORMS AGAIN FOCUSED
OVER THE GILA REGION AND DOWN INTO THE BOOTHEEL. PERHAPS A LITTLE
MORE ACTIVITY INTO SIERRA AND LUNA COUNTIES THAN I WOULD HAVE
EXPECTED.
OUR UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW IS CRAWLING TOWARDS COAHUILA, AND AGAIN
INFLUENCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN "NEAR-WEST" TEXAS. SOME OF
ON-GOING CONVECTION HAS DRIFTED INTO HUDSPETH COUNTY, ROUGHLY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. EXPECT WE'LL SEE OFF AND ON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN PARTS
OF HUDSPETH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BUT WITH NO REAL IMPACT.
OVERALL EXPECT A CONTINUED UPTICK IN CONVECTION COVERAGE TOMORROW,
MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THAT UPPER LOW. ITS TRACK IS SLOWING DOWN, HOWEVER, AND NOW SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES AREA-WIDE,
RATHER THAN SHIFTING WEST. THE WESTERN PREFERENCE NOW SLIPS TO
MONDAY WITH THE SLOWER TRACK.
THEN THE RIDGE BUILDS WEST, LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE TUE AND
WEDNESDAY, AND BOOSTING TEMPS BACK TOWARDS THE 100 MARK. BUT
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED, WITH
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WEAK TRAILING END OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO SKIRT THE AREA, AND
COMBINED WITH TYPICAL MID/LATE-MONSOON RECYCLED MOISTURE, SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO BOOST PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO HELP FIRE OFF
SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. RIGHT NOW THERE IS
NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL ON ANY OF THE TAF'S SITES BEING IMPACTED
DIRECTLY BY ANY STORMS, BUT WE WILL UPDATE TAF'S AS TRENDS BECOME
CLEARER. AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS WE WILL HAVE GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. WE WILL HAVE OFF AND ON MID AND HIGH
CEILINGS THIS MORNING. THEN THIS AFTERNOON, THE MID AND HIGH
CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINATE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DIE OFF AS WE HEAD LATER INTO THE EVENING. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL
BE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 603 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY, BUT
THEN DRIER AIR AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MIN RH'S TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE NEAR OR
ABOVE 20% ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK THE DRIER AIR WILL GIVE US MIN RH'S IN THE MID TEENS IN THE
LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS. EACH AFTERNOON ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, OUR WINDS WILL
STAY WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. VENTILATION RATES TODAY AND
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 98 73 97 / 40 30 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 92 65 93 / 40 20 10 10
LAS CRUCES 68 97 67 95 / 30 30 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 71 95 68 95 / 20 60 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 52 72 50 71 / 20 70 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 96 70 93 / 20 50 50 10
SILVER CITY 63 90 63 88 / 20 40 40 60
DEMING 69 98 69 96 / 20 40 50 10
LORDSBURG 69 97 70 95 / 20 30 30 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 97 75 97 / 30 30 20 0
DELL CITY 70 97 70 97 / 30 20 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 73 99 73 99 / 40 30 10 10
LOMA LINDA 68 90 68 90 / 40 40 10 10
FABENS 72 98 72 98 / 40 30 20 10
SANTA TERESA 71 96 71 95 / 30 30 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 96 72 95 / 20 40 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 70 96 69 95 / 20 40 20 10
HATCH 70 100 70 98 / 20 40 40 10
COLUMBUS 73 98 73 97 / 20 30 30 10
OROGRANDE 68 94 68 94 / 20 40 10 10
MAYHILL 57 83 55 83 / 20 70 10 30
MESCALERO 56 83 55 82 / 20 70 10 50
TIMBERON 55 82 53 82 / 20 70 10 20
WINSTON 60 88 59 85 / 20 40 50 50
HILLSBORO 67 95 66 92 / 20 50 60 20
SPACEPORT 68 96 67 94 / 10 40 40 10
LAKE ROBERTS 57 88 57 87 / 20 50 50 80
HURLEY 64 93 64 91 / 20 40 50 40
CLIFF 65 97 66 95 / 20 30 40 60
MULE CREEK 63 93 64 92 / 10 30 20 70
FAYWOOD 66 93 66 90 / 20 50 60 20
ANIMAS 69 97 70 96 / 20 30 30 10
HACHITA 69 96 69 95 / 20 40 50 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 95 68 94 / 20 20 20 10
CLOVERDALE 65 90 66 90 / 20 20 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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