821
FXUS64 KEPZ 170516
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1116 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1049 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST,
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE GILA REGION, AND
BRIEF BUT ISOLATED STORMS IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. CHANCES
FOR STORMS IN THE LOWLANDS AROUND LAS CRUCES AND EL PASO WILL
BE LIMITED TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 PERCENT AS INSTABILITY EASES.
- DRY, HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN TO LOWLANDS BY MIDWEEK.
- THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, BUT MOSTLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS NORTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT, AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLINGS TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
TODAY FOLLOWED THE FORECAST SCRIPT FAIRLY WELL, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE, SOME FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTOS, AND A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF STORMS IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DOWN INTO PARTS OF THE EL PASO AREA. THE
FAR EAST SIDE TAKING A HIT TWO DAYS IN A ROW WAS UNUSUAL, THOUGH
PARTS OF THE WEST SIDE SAW SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. IT
WAS A LITTLE QUIETER THAN EXPECTED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP IN THE GILA WAS VERY ISOLATED, ANY
MOSTLY ALONG THE MIMBRES AND SAPILLO CREEK VALLEYS.
EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE REALLY ALL THAT'S LEFT OF THE
CONVECTION. RAP 200 MB STREAMLINES SHOW THE UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
THAT WAS PRESENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NM HAS COLLAPSED, SO SUPPORT
FOR POST-CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WENT WITH IT. STILL, EXPECT THE MID-
SECTION OF THE CWA WILL BE SOMEWHAT STABILIZED TOMORROW, HELPING
LIMIT CONVECTION. OUR MID-LEVEL LOW DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LOW, WHICH HAS WEAKENED INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH,
STILL OVER COAHUILA. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS AROUND THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, QUITE A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE EXPECTED TRACK WAS
JUST A FEW DAYS AGO. IT IS ALSO CONTINUING TO SLOW DOWN, AND FOR
THIS REASON I CAN'T REALLY PULL POPS OUT OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NM
COMPLETELY, SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ISN'T COMPLETELY GONE.
BUT, THE STABILIZATION AND SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THINGS ISOLATED. THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE OVER SW NEW
MEXICO, INCLUDING THE GILA AND THE BOOTHEEL. SINCE THE GILA DIDN'T
REALLY TAKE IT ON THE NOSE TODAY, THEIR RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
(BEYOND NUISANCE LEVELS) IS DOWN A SMIDGE, WHICH IS JARGON FOR
"JUST ENOUGH TO NOT BE SO INCLINED FOR A FF WATCH". LOCALIZED,
MOSTLY NUISANCE-LEVEL FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE, BUT ALONG THE
LINES OF A MID-END MONSOON DAY. WITH CONVECTION IN THE GILA AND
BOOTHEEL, OUTFLOW-RAISED DUST ON LORDSBURG PLAYA CAN'T BE RULED
OUT.
STILL EXPECT A SHARP DECREASE IN CONVECTION COVERAGE AS WARM/DRY
AIR ALOFT WORKS IN FROM THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SIMILAR
EXPECTATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY, AS TEMPERATURES TICK BACK UP ABOVE THE
100 MARK AT ELP. RECYCLED MOISTURE AND NE FLOW SHOULD BRING A
RETURN TO CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW DAYS AGO, IT HAD
LOOKED LIKE NW FLOW WOULD DEVELOP WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
RETREATING WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS, AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WOULD GET TO SKIRT THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY, THE TREND HAS NOT
BEEN OUR FRIEND IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS, AND THE RIDGE LOOKS TO HANG IN
THERE. SO, WE MAY GO BACK TO THE PATTERN WE WERE STUCK IN ABOUT A
WEEK AGO, WITH NE FLOW KEEPING THE GILA AND SW NEW MEXICO ACTIVE,
BUT ALLOWING SE ARIZONA AND ADJACENT SONORA TO RUN AWAY WITH
THINGS. THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS MAY STILL BE IN PLAY, AND WITH NE
STEERING FLOW, NORMALLY THAT COULD BRING STORMS AND OUTFLOW DOWN
INTO THE TULAROSA BASIN TOWARDS EL PASO, INITIATING MORE STORMS
ALONG THE WAY. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRYING
OUT, WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING LOWER-40S DEWPOINTS. IN THAT CASE,
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY BE ALL WE CAN MUSTER IN EL PASO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN NM. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOMORROW WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE FOR LRU AND ELP, BUT STABILIZATION IN THE
WAKE OF TODAY'S STORMS, AND SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
PROBABILITIES AROUND 15 TO 20%. TCS AND DMN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE, BUT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
LOOKS TO WE WEST OF A TCS-DMN LINE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 957 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
CONTINUED RAIN WILL KEEP ERC VALUES ON THE LOW SIDE EARLY THIS
WEEK, BUT ERC VALUES WILL INCREASE BY MIDWEEK. MIN RHS WILL BE
ABOVE 20% ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW ON THE ACCOUNT OF
THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY BEING IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND IN THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST ON MONDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY. LOWLAND MIN RH VALUES WILL
FALL TO THE TEENS AND STAY IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
VENTILATION RATES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM GOOD TO VERY
GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 96 73 98 / 30 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 65 91 66 94 / 10 30 10 0
LAS CRUCES 67 93 67 95 / 40 20 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 67 92 68 95 / 20 20 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 50 70 51 72 / 10 30 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 92 69 94 / 50 20 20 0
SILVER CITY 63 86 62 88 / 20 50 20 20
DEMING 69 95 68 96 / 40 20 20 0
LORDSBURG 70 94 69 95 / 20 30 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 95 74 97 / 40 10 10 0
DELL CITY 70 95 70 98 / 0 20 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 97 73 100 / 10 30 10 0
LOMA LINDA 67 88 67 91 / 20 20 10 0
FABENS 72 95 72 98 / 20 30 10 0
SANTA TERESA 71 93 71 95 / 40 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 93 72 95 / 30 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 93 69 95 / 40 10 20 0
HATCH 69 96 69 98 / 40 20 20 0
COLUMBUS 73 94 72 97 / 30 20 20 0
OROGRANDE 67 92 68 94 / 20 20 10 0
MAYHILL 55 82 56 85 / 10 30 10 20
MESCALERO 54 81 55 83 / 10 30 10 20
TIMBERON 53 80 54 82 / 10 30 10 10
WINSTON 59 83 59 86 / 50 30 20 20
HILLSBORO 66 91 66 93 / 50 30 20 20
SPACEPORT 67 92 68 94 / 40 10 20 0
LAKE ROBERTS 57 85 56 86 / 20 60 20 20
HURLEY 64 88 64 90 / 30 40 20 20
CLIFF 66 93 65 95 / 20 50 20 20
MULE CREEK 64 90 64 91 / 20 60 20 20
FAYWOOD 65 88 65 90 / 40 30 20 20
ANIMAS 70 95 69 95 / 20 30 30 10
HACHITA 69 92 68 94 / 30 30 30 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 92 68 94 / 20 30 30 10
CLOVERDALE 66 88 65 89 / 20 30 30 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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