432
FXUS64 KEPZ 180520
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1120 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1108 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2026
- A SHARP DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY, AND HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SEEP IN.
- HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IN THE GILA AND SACRAMENTOS WILL GET A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT
WITH MINIMAL CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS.
- THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE RELIABLE AND
WIDESPREAD FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2026
NOT TERRIBLY ACTIVE TODAY, WITH THE GILA PARTICULARLY FALLING
SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS. MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WAS ENOUGH TO FLARE UP
CONVECTION A BIT IN SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY, WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA FROM NEAR ESPERANZA AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANKS OF THE
QUITMAN MOUNTAINS RECEIVING 1 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN. AND AGAIN,
PARTS OF EAST EL PASO RECEIVED MODERATE RAIN, THOUGH MOSTLY INSIDE
OF LOOP-375 THIS TIME AROUND, AND SHORT-LIVED.
GOING FORWARD, THE MID-LEVEL UPPER LOW REMNANTS, NOW AN INVERTED
TROUGH, WILL MOVE OR PERHAPS REORGANIZE FURTHER TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT (IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MCS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA). UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH,
WITH WARM AND DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT,
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY EVEN MIX-OUT INTO THE 30S.
A LITTLE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL SNEAK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION COULD OCCUR
IN THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN (GILA, SACRAMENTOS), WITH AN ISOLATED
EVENING STORM DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL SIERRA COUNTY OR THE NORTHERN
TULAROSA BASIN. ANYWHERE SOUTH OF THERE WILL BE VERY HOSTILE
TERRAIN.
THURSDAY STILL LOOKS MORE ACTIVE OVER THE GILA AGAIN, LIKELY
SPREADING INTO THE FAR SW NEW MEXICO LOWLANDS IN THE EVENING, AND
A FEW STORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND FAR WEST TEXAS...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW.
AND IT DOESN'T GET MUCH BETTER FROM THERE, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SETTING UP OVER NORTHERN NM OR OCCASIONALLY DRIFTING
TOWARDS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, AND A WARM CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORY
LIMITING CONVECTION CHANCES OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAKER INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO NE MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK WILL
GET DEFLECTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CRAWL BACK UP
INTO THE 100-103 RANGE IN MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS, AND STAY THERE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION
CHANCES RAMP DOWN SHARPLY FOR TUESDAY, SO VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS OUR WINDS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
MIN RH'S WILL DROP TO AROUND 20% ON TUESDAY, THEN RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS TO THE 20'S IN AREA
MOUNTAINS MID TO LATE WEEK. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN, WE WILL
SEE LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH
CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO AREA MOUNTAINS. VENTILATION RATES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 97 73 100 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 65 93 66 97 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 66 95 67 99 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 68 94 70 98 / 10 0 0 20
CLOUDCROFT 50 72 52 76 / 10 20 10 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 94 70 99 / 10 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 62 87 64 91 / 20 10 0 30
DEMING 68 96 69 100 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 69 95 71 98 / 20 0 0 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 96 73 100 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 69 97 69 100 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 73 100 73 103 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 67 90 68 93 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 71 97 71 100 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 70 94 70 98 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 95 74 100 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 68 95 70 99 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 68 98 70 102 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 71 96 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 66 93 68 97 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 55 86 57 89 / 0 20 0 30
MESCALERO 54 83 57 87 / 10 20 20 40
TIMBERON 53 82 55 85 / 10 20 0 20
WINSTON 59 86 60 90 / 20 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 66 93 67 98 / 20 0 0 20
SPACEPORT 66 94 68 99 / 0 0 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 56 87 58 90 / 20 20 0 40
HURLEY 63 90 64 94 / 20 0 0 20
CLIFF 65 95 67 98 / 20 10 10 30
MULE CREEK 63 91 66 94 / 20 20 20 60
FAYWOOD 65 89 66 94 / 20 0 0 20
ANIMAS 69 95 70 99 / 10 0 0 10
HACHITA 68 94 69 97 / 10 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 93 67 97 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 65 89 65 93 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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