363
FXUS64 KEPZ 182335
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
535 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
TO LOWER 100S, WHICH WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORDS.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, LIMITED
MOSTLY TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMAL
STORM COVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
DRIER AIR IS SHOWING UP NICELY ON WV ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER
PUSHING WEST INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO JUST THE GILA REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE IS
STILL SOME MODEST MOISTURE AROUND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY
SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FOR WED, THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING IN FROM A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS USUAL, SCATTERED
STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS. GFS/EC ARE GENERALLY
KEEPING STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THE CAMS SHOWING OUTFLOWS
PUSHING SOUTH AND ISOLATED STORMS FORMING OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. EVEN THE GFS DOES SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG OUTFLOW PUSHING
OFF THE GILA, SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP OFF OF THIS. DID RAISE POPS FROM THE NBM TO MENTIONABLE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT WITH MOST OF THE
LOWLANDS IN THE 99-105 RANGE. NBM TEMPS SEEMED A LITTLE LOW AND
DID RAISE A DEGREE OR TWO AS WE WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS.
THE RECORD AT KELP TOMORROW IS 103 AND WE WILL BE CLOSE. THU LOOKS
SIMILAR WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND, BUT LESS CONFIDENT STORMS
MAKE IT ONTO THE LOWLANDS AS MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY
WITH UPPER HIGH BEING WELL ESTABLISHED JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE NEAR RECORDS, ESPECIALLY FURTHER
SOUTH.
FOR SAT-MON, THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE SE AND END UP
NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS WILL NOT BE GOOD FOR THE CWA AS THE
MOISTURE ALL GETS PUSHED UP INTO AZ. IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HOT
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS CONTINUING. NBM TEMPS MAY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOL, BUT THEY ARE CLOSE WITH NEAR 100 FOR THE LOWLANDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
VMC EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES FEW-SCT110 THIS
EVENING WITH WEAKENING TCU OVER MTNS, BECOMING SKC-FEW120
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS 250-300 AOB 5 KNOTS. LIGHT SSE FLOW
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, GENERALLY 140-180 AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. ISOLATED
TSRA ACROSS SW NM. CONSIDERED INCLUDING PROB30 TS FOR KTCS/KDMN
THIS CYCLE, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH. KELP/KLRU WILL REMAIN DRY
TOMORROW WITH A LOW RISK FOR OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS BETWEEN
00-06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR QUITE SOME TIME. THERE
WILL BE A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WED AND
BRING BACK SOME MODEST MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FOR WED
AND THU, THERE WILL BE SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOME ISOLATED STORMS MOVING ONTO THE LOWLANDS FROM GUSTY OUTFLOWS.
STORM COVERAGE BECOMES MINIMAL TO NONE BY THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND PUSHES THE MOISTURE
WEST INTO AZ. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. RH'S WILL FALL
INTO THE TEENS FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 20S/30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
VENT RATES FAIR TO GOOD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 102 73 103 / 0 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 97 67 98 / 0 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 68 100 69 101 / 0 0 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 99 72 98 / 0 20 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 53 77 54 76 / 10 20 10 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 99 72 98 / 0 20 20 10
SILVER CITY 65 93 65 92 / 0 40 20 30
DEMING 67 101 69 102 / 0 10 20 10
LORDSBURG 69 98 70 99 / 0 10 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 71 101 74 102 / 0 0 10 0
DELL CITY 67 101 70 102 / 0 0 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 70 103 74 103 / 0 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 66 94 69 95 / 0 0 10 0
FABENS 69 102 72 103 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 68 99 71 100 / 0 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 69 101 75 102 / 0 0 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 65 100 67 99 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 69 103 71 102 / 0 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 70 101 73 102 / 0 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 67 100 69 101 / 0 0 10 10
MAYHILL 59 89 59 88 / 10 20 10 30
MESCALERO 57 88 58 87 / 10 20 10 60
TIMBERON 53 87 56 86 / 0 20 10 20
WINSTON 60 91 62 90 / 0 20 20 30
HILLSBORO 66 96 69 95 / 0 20 20 10
SPACEPORT 66 100 69 99 / 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 52 91 57 90 / 10 40 20 50
HURLEY 64 95 66 94 / 0 30 20 20
CLIFF 60 96 63 95 / 10 40 20 40
MULE CREEK 56 94 61 93 / 10 40 20 50
FAYWOOD 65 95 67 94 / 0 20 20 10
ANIMAS 69 99 70 100 / 0 10 10 10
HACHITA 67 98 69 99 / 0 10 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 97 68 98 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 63 93 66 94 / 0 10 10 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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