018
FXUS64 KEPZ 021138
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
538 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
- SPOTTY, LOW COVERAGE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP MOST OF
REGION DRY TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH A RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER, WITH LOWLANDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
UL HIGH IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR EAST, TOWARD TN/KY, BUT MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR AND NOT SO GREAT THERMODYNAMICS (MLCAPE OF 250-500
J/KG) HAVE GREATLY LIMITED CONVECTION, KEEPING IT TO THE SACS AND
HUDSPETH COUNTY. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE LITTLE FOR TOMORROW,
SO THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LARGELY BE LIMITED TO THE SAME AREAS. BY
THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND COVERAGE. THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH
HOW QUICKLY WE WILL MOISTEN UP WITH THE GFS MUCH QUICKER AND
THEREFORE SHOWING MORE QPF ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY, IT APPEARS
MOISTURE WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY. NBM MEAN SHOWS VALUES PEAKING
BETWEEN 1.35-1.45", AND THUS, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH STORMS.
THE MOISTURE STICKS AROUND FOR SATURDAY, BUT THE 500 MB HIGH WILL
BEGIN REFORMING OVER SOUTHERN NM, WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN. THIS PATTERN WILL REDUCE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND
THEREFORE LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. I SUSPECT GIVEN PW VALUES
AROUND 1.3" WE'LL STILL SEE SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED
STORMS.
THE UL HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO START NEXT WEEK WHILE PW
VALUES DRIFT DOWNWARD THANKS TO MID-LEVEL DRYING. NBM MEAN PW
DROPS FROM AROUND 1.35" TO AROUND 1.25" BY NEXT TUESDAY. THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THAT WILL
BE WHERE WE SEE OUR BEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. REGARDLESS, WE
WILL RETURN TO A HIT AND MISS STYLE FORECAST WITH MOST OF US
MISSING.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO LARGELY HOLD STEADY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH THE NBM KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE
LOWLANDS, WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ULTIMATELY THOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRYING OCCURS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
HIGH NEXT WEEK IF WE SEE EL PASO ADD TO ITS TALLY OF 100 DEGREE
DAYS. CONVERSELY, WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE FRIDAY WE MAY SEE
HIGHS COME IN A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
VMC EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES SKC-
FEW120 THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE WINDS 220-270 AOB 5 KNOTS.
SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED
SHRA ACROSS S NM. DIRECT IMPACTS TO TERMINALS ARE UNLIKELY THIS
EVENING, SO NO MENTION OF TS IN TAFS. SKIES SCT-BKN100 WITH WINDS
240-280 AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE AT
KDMN DUE TO OUTFLOWS. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SCT-
BKN120 CEILINGS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR AREA FORESTS TODAY WITH VERY LOW COVERAGE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. MIN RH 20-30%. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH
WILL LEAD TO GOOD VENT RATES.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
(30-50% COVERAGE) STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER GILA AND LINCOLN NF
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. STORMS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
LOW RISK OF NEW LIGHTNING STARTS THIS WEEKEND DUE TO RECENT
WETNESS. PREVAILING FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE SE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MIDDAY VENT RATES GENERALLY FAIR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 97 73 95 / 10 0 40 10
SIERRA BLANCA 67 94 66 91 / 10 10 30 10
LAS CRUCES 68 95 68 93 / 10 10 30 10
ALAMOGORDO 69 96 69 93 / 10 10 30 20
CLOUDCROFT 52 72 51 70 / 10 30 20 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 93 69 91 / 0 20 30 30
SILVER CITY 62 86 61 84 / 10 30 30 50
DEMING 68 95 66 93 / 10 10 30 20
LORDSBURG 67 91 66 89 / 10 30 30 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 96 75 94 / 10 0 40 10
DELL CITY 71 99 70 97 / 10 10 30 10
FORT HANCOCK 73 100 73 98 / 10 10 50 10
LOMA LINDA 68 90 67 88 / 10 0 40 10
FABENS 72 98 71 95 / 10 0 50 10
SANTA TERESA 71 95 70 92 / 10 0 40 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 96 72 94 / 10 10 30 20
JORNADA RANGE 68 95 68 93 / 10 10 30 30
HATCH 69 98 69 96 / 10 10 30 20
COLUMBUS 72 95 71 93 / 10 10 60 10
OROGRANDE 68 95 67 92 / 10 0 30 10
MAYHILL 57 85 57 84 / 10 40 20 70
MESCALERO 56 84 55 82 / 10 30 10 60
TIMBERON 55 82 54 80 / 10 10 20 30
WINSTON 58 84 58 82 / 0 40 30 80
HILLSBORO 67 92 66 91 / 0 30 30 50
SPACEPORT 66 94 66 92 / 10 10 30 20
LAKE ROBERTS 56 85 55 83 / 10 40 30 60
HURLEY 62 89 61 87 / 10 30 30 40
CLIFF 64 93 64 91 / 10 20 30 40
MULE CREEK 61 88 62 86 / 10 20 30 30
FAYWOOD 65 89 64 87 / 10 20 30 40
ANIMAS 67 90 66 89 / 20 50 30 50
HACHITA 66 90 65 89 / 20 30 30 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 88 64 87 / 40 40 40 60
CLOVERDALE 63 82 63 81 / 40 50 40 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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