177
FXUS64 KEPZ 031130
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
530 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY. BEST
CHANCES OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER, WITH LOWLANDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
- STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED, HIT-
AND-MISS COVERAGE, THEN FAVORING WESTERN NEW MEXICO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST OF
THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR THIS YEAR. AS WE MOVE FURTHER INTO
SEPTEMBER IT GETS HARDER AND HARDER TO HIT 100F. CASE AND POINT,
THURSDAY'S RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IS ONLY 101F. NOW WE MAY BE
FINISHED WITH THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT, BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN ANY
GREAT COOL DOWN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WHICH MEANS
LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90'S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FACTOR HELPING TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OF OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PW'S) WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE RANGE OF 1.2 TO 1.3
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HELP FUEL
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WE WON'T SEE
RAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE EACH AFTERNOON, BUT WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE
BETTER RAIN COVERAGE THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOOKING
JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE RAIN CHANCES. THE GFS PARKS OUR OLD FRIEND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHICH ALLOWS COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS A LOBE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LEANING INTO NEW MEXICO AND
THAT REALLY LIMITS ANY MOISTURE INFLUX GETTING INTO THE AREA.
CONSIDERING HOW OUR SUMMER HAS BEEN GOING, I'M TENDING TO LEARN
MORE TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
SKIES FEW-SCT120 THIS MORNING WITH SPOTTY -SHRA ALONG THE INTL
BORDER. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 210-240 AOB 6 KNOTS THIS MORNING,
THEN 230-260 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS MID-AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSRA
DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z, WITH SCT-BKN100 SKIES AND VCTS AROUND TAF
SITES AFTER 21Z. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND POSSIBLE BLDU MOVING
NORTH OUT OF CHIHUAHUA AFTER 01Z TONIGHT DUE TO TS OUTFLOWS.
GUSTS UP TO 40KT POSSIBLE. SCATTERED TSRA MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NM FORESTS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH COULD CAUSE SUDDEN, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MIN RH 25-35% WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH LEADING TO FAIR/GOOD VENT RATES. RAIN
SHOWERS MAY LINGER LATER THAN USUAL TONIGHT, INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NM.
GOOD RAIN CHANCES FOR BOTH LINCOLN AND GILA NF OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH FLOODING RISK PEAKING DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS EACH
DAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAVORABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER LOW WITH MINIMAL RISK OF NEW LIGHTNING STARTS. PREVAILING
FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE SE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH MIDDAY VENT
RATES GENERALLY POOR/FAIR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 95 72 96 / 20 0 30 10
SIERRA BLANCA 65 91 64 91 / 30 10 40 10
LAS CRUCES 68 94 67 95 / 30 10 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 69 94 68 94 / 20 20 30 30
CLOUDCROFT 51 71 51 71 / 20 50 20 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 92 70 93 / 30 20 20 10
SILVER CITY 61 85 61 87 / 30 30 10 30
DEMING 66 94 67 96 / 30 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 66 90 66 93 / 30 20 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 94 73 95 / 20 0 20 0
DELL CITY 70 97 69 96 / 30 10 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 72 98 72 98 / 40 20 50 10
LOMA LINDA 67 88 66 89 / 30 10 40 10
FABENS 71 96 71 96 / 30 10 40 0
SANTA TERESA 70 93 70 94 / 30 10 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 94 71 95 / 30 10 20 20
JORNADA RANGE 68 93 67 94 / 30 20 20 20
HATCH 69 97 68 97 / 30 10 20 10
COLUMBUS 71 94 71 96 / 40 10 20 0
OROGRANDE 67 92 66 93 / 30 10 30 10
MAYHILL 57 85 56 84 / 20 50 10 70
MESCALERO 56 82 55 82 / 10 50 20 80
TIMBERON 54 81 54 80 / 30 20 30 40
WINSTON 57 84 58 84 / 30 60 20 50
HILLSBORO 66 91 66 91 / 20 30 20 30
SPACEPORT 66 93 65 93 / 30 20 30 10
LAKE ROBERTS 55 84 55 86 / 30 40 10 60
HURLEY 61 88 62 90 / 20 20 10 20
CLIFF 65 91 64 94 / 30 20 10 10
MULE CREEK 62 87 62 90 / 30 20 10 10
FAYWOOD 64 88 64 89 / 30 20 10 30
ANIMAS 66 89 66 92 / 30 30 10 10
HACHITA 65 89 66 92 / 30 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 87 64 90 / 20 30 20 10
CLOVERDALE 62 81 63 85 / 40 30 10 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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