783
FXUS64 KEPZ 032326
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
526 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 515 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.
- STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS. AREAS
OF THUNDERSTORM-GENERATED BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWLANDS THIS EVENING.
- FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED STORM CHANCES BEFORE
RETREATING TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SW NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
CAROLINAS. ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE HIGH, A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOST RECENT
GFS AND ECMWF RUNS HAVE LOWLAND PWAT VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1.3-
1.4". SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
COULD SLOW THE START OF LOWLAND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. THE PAST FEW HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH FORECASTING A LARGE OUTFLOW WITH 50 MPH GUSTS
BLOWING IN FROM CHIHUAHUA AROUND SUNSET. TO REFLECT THIS, I PUT A
MENTION OF AREAS OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS
FROM 6-9 PM THIS EVENING, INCLUDING THE EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES METRO
AREAS.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY, AND BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
HAVE LOWLAND PWAT VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.4-1.5". THE WPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST AND
AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION
HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR FRIDAY. EL PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES HAVE A
30-50% CHANCE TO SEE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. LIKE THURSDAY, LOCALIZED FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. ON SATURDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CONTINUE THE STREAK OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED OVER
THE LOWLANDS.
PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED DECREASE TO 1.2-1.25" ON SUNDAY IF THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE ANY INDICATION. THIS IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
FUEL SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED LOWLAND
THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE FAVORED WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY'S STORM CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.
THE LONG-RANGE MODEL RUNS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES
BEYOND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH STATIONED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY MID-NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO, WHICH WOULD LIMIT CONVECTION.
I'M LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF'S FORECAST, THOUGH THAT MAY CHANGE AS
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS BEGIN TO CONVERGE.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOUT 3-7 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WITH
LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID 90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
P6SM SCT-BKN090-110 BKN150-200 WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 3-5SM
BKN050-070 MOVING NORTH OUT OF MEXICO STARTING AROUND 01Z. STORMS
SO FAR ARE SLOW TO GET GOING AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH SO KEPT IN
PROB30 FOR KDMN AND SOME VCTS/VCSH FOR OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS. WINDS
WILL START WEST-SOUTHWEST AOB 12KTS BUT INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING TO 10-15G25KTS BEFORE DYING OFF AFTER 08Z AND BECOMING
MORE VARIABLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL INITIATE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, SOME OF WHICH
MAY GENERATE PATCHY BLOWING DUST, WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS. MIN RHS 25-35% WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 MPH WILL KEEP VENTILATION RATES GOOD FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR GILA NATIONAL
FOREST AND AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WHILE THE REST OF
THE REGION, INCLUDING LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST, HAS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR FRIDAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE MOST PROMINENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY FOR THE FORESTS. CONTINUED MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW FOR THE
REGION. VENTILATION RATES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR
AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN. VENTILATION RATES WILL RETURN TO GOOD ON
SUNDAY AS THE PREVAILING FLOW SHIFTS TO OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 96 72 97 / 30 20 40 10
SIERRA BLANCA 66 92 65 92 / 30 20 50 20
LAS CRUCES 68 94 67 95 / 20 20 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 69 95 68 95 / 30 20 30 30
CLOUDCROFT 51 72 51 71 / 20 40 40 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 92 70 93 / 30 20 30 10
SILVER CITY 61 85 61 87 / 40 30 10 40
DEMING 67 94 67 96 / 30 20 10 10
LORDSBURG 66 88 66 92 / 40 20 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 95 73 96 / 30 20 40 0
DELL CITY 70 97 69 97 / 20 20 40 10
FORT HANCOCK 72 99 72 99 / 40 20 50 10
LOMA LINDA 67 89 66 90 / 30 20 50 20
FABENS 71 97 70 97 / 40 20 50 0
SANTA TERESA 70 93 69 95 / 30 20 40 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 95 71 95 / 30 20 30 30
JORNADA RANGE 68 94 67 95 / 30 20 20 30
HATCH 69 97 68 98 / 30 20 20 30
COLUMBUS 71 94 71 96 / 40 20 20 0
OROGRANDE 67 93 67 94 / 30 20 30 10
MAYHILL 57 85 57 84 / 20 50 30 70
MESCALERO 55 83 55 83 / 20 40 30 80
TIMBERON 54 81 54 81 / 30 30 30 50
WINSTON 57 83 57 84 / 30 60 30 60
HILLSBORO 66 92 66 92 / 30 30 20 40
SPACEPORT 66 93 65 94 / 30 20 30 30
LAKE ROBERTS 56 84 55 86 / 40 40 20 70
HURLEY 62 88 62 90 / 40 20 10 40
CLIFF 64 91 64 93 / 40 30 10 20
MULE CREEK 61 86 61 89 / 40 30 20 10
FAYWOOD 64 88 64 89 / 40 20 10 40
ANIMAS 66 87 67 91 / 30 30 20 10
HACHITA 65 89 66 92 / 30 20 30 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 87 64 90 / 30 30 20 10
CLOVERDALE 61 81 61 84 / 40 30 20 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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