778
FXUS64 KEPZ 040430
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1030 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
- FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORM CHANCES BEFORE PUSHING MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY SUNDAY.
- THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOW STORM
MOTION.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH 90S FOR THE
LOWLANDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
MODELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTING WESTWARD AND ENDING UP IN THE KS/OK BORDER REGION
WITH A RIDGE AXIS CUTTING THROUGH THE CWA. CURRENTLY WE HAVE SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PW'S OF THE MONSOON SEASON IN PLACE WITH 1.4" ON
00Z EPZ SOUNDING. WITH PRETTY WEAK FLOW OVER THE AREA, THIS
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SAT. THE ISSUE WILL BE A LITTLE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND
400-500MB AND THAT RIDGE AXIS.
THERE WILL BE AN MCV DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA. LOOKS LIKE MOST PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNRISE FRI, BUT THERE WILL BE RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING
SOMEWHAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS HAPPENED TODAY, THESE MORNING
CLOUDS COULD LIMIT AFTERNOON STORMS AS WELL. GFS AND CAMS ARE
KEEPING COVERAGE PRETTY LIMITED AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS. EC IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH STORMS CONTINUING INTO
THE RGV AND FAR WEST TX AFTER 00Z. THERE IS AGREEMENT THERE WILL
BE SOME LL CONVERGENCE OVER HUDSPETH AROUND 00Z WHICH COULD SEND
OUTFLOWS FURTHER WEST AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS. PREVIOUS
FORECAST SEEMS TO COVER THIS PRETTY WELL AND WILL NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM THAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH
MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
A SIMILAR PATTERN FOR SAT, EXCEPT THERE IS A BETTER LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SACS AND THEN OUTFLOWS PUSHING
STORMS ONTO THE LOWLANDS. THE RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL LIMIT STORM COVERAGE BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED(20%) COVERAGE
LOOKS WARRANTED FOR EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO
FRI.
FOR SUN/MON, THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND
STARTS TO BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO EASTERN AREAS. EXPECT MOST
STORM COVERAGE HERE TO BE FOCUSED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THESE ALSO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH SOME AREAS APPROACHING
100 IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY.
TUE-THU OF NEXT WEEK WE ARE SEEING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
THE EC KEEPS UPPER HIGH THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE AREA
WHILE THE GFS HAS THE HIGH FURTHER EAST AND ALLOWS A WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER FLOW TO MOVE IN FROM MEXICO. ENSEMBLE MEANS OF BOTH ARE
MORE SIMILAR AND THE UPPER WEAKNESS SHOWN ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS
IS NOT AS NOTICEABLE IN IT'S MEAN. THERE WILL BE A NICE ESE FLOW
PATTERN THOUGH, WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME BETTER MOISTURE,
SO WILL KEEP NBM LOW END POPS GOING WITH TEMPS REMAINING ON A VERY
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
P6SM SCT-BKN090-110 BKN150-200 WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AROUND THE LUNA/DONA ANA CO LINE AND
THEN ANOTHER AREA ALONG THE RGV IN FAR WEST TX. STORMS ARE
STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO ANY TERMINALS BUT INCLUDED SOME PROB30
FOR KDMN EARLY ON AND JUST VCSH AT KLRU AND KELP. EXPECT
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY START TO BREAK UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS SEEING STORMS BETWEEN 20-00Z WITH A FEW STORMS PUSHING ONTO
THE LOWLANDS AFTER 00Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE OFF
AND ON STORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RH'S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S WITH 30S/40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION AS WELL
WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO OVERALL FIRE DANGER
WILL BE LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 96 72 97 / 30 20 40 10
SIERRA BLANCA 66 92 65 92 / 30 20 50 20
LAS CRUCES 68 94 67 95 / 20 20 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 69 95 68 95 / 30 20 30 30
CLOUDCROFT 51 72 51 71 / 20 40 40 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 92 70 93 / 30 20 30 10
SILVER CITY 61 85 61 87 / 40 30 10 40
DEMING 67 94 67 96 / 30 20 10 10
LORDSBURG 66 88 66 92 / 40 20 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 95 73 96 / 30 20 40 0
DELL CITY 70 97 69 97 / 20 20 40 10
FORT HANCOCK 72 99 72 99 / 40 20 50 10
LOMA LINDA 67 89 66 90 / 30 20 50 20
FABENS 71 97 70 97 / 40 20 50 0
SANTA TERESA 70 93 69 95 / 30 20 40 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 95 71 95 / 30 20 30 30
JORNADA RANGE 68 94 67 95 / 30 20 20 30
HATCH 69 97 68 98 / 30 20 20 30
COLUMBUS 71 94 71 96 / 40 20 20 0
OROGRANDE 67 93 67 94 / 30 20 30 10
MAYHILL 57 85 57 84 / 20 50 30 70
MESCALERO 55 83 55 83 / 20 40 30 80
TIMBERON 54 81 54 81 / 30 30 30 50
WINSTON 57 83 57 84 / 30 60 30 60
HILLSBORO 66 92 66 92 / 30 30 20 40
SPACEPORT 66 93 65 94 / 30 20 30 30
LAKE ROBERTS 56 84 55 86 / 40 40 20 70
HURLEY 62 88 62 90 / 40 20 10 40
CLIFF 64 91 64 93 / 40 30 10 20
MULE CREEK 61 86 61 89 / 40 30 20 10
FAYWOOD 64 88 64 89 / 40 20 10 40
ANIMAS 66 87 67 91 / 30 30 20 10
HACHITA 65 89 66 92 / 30 20 30 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 87 64 90 / 30 30 20 10
CLOVERDALE 61 81 61 84 / 40 30 20 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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