031
FXUS64 KEPZ 071722
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1122 AM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1028 AM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
- STORM CHANCES FAVOR WESTERN AREAS AND HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOSTLY DRY TODAY. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
FOR TODAY, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. PWS COME DOWN A BIT (1.1-
1.2") FROM YESTERDAY AS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT FROM THE HIGH LIMITS
STORM COVERAGE IN THE LOWLANDS. THE MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS OUT W
WITH SCATTERED STORMS IN THE GILA AND ISOLATED COVERAGE FOR THE SACS
AND W OF THE DIVIDE. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE
THE MAIN THREATS. THE RGV SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY (0-10% CHANCES),
INCLUDING LAS CRUCES AND EL PASO. OUTFLOWS OFF THE GILA COULD SPARK
A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING W OF THE RGV.
THE HIGH ELONGATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US TUE-WED DUE TO A PASSING
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AGAIN, FORCING WILL BE HARD TO COME
BY ON TUE DUE TO THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE. BETTER
INSTABILITY (NEAR 1000 J/KG CAPE) IS MODELED FOR TOMORROW WITH
STRONGER WIND GUST POTENTIAL AND AREA-WIDE STORM CHANCES. THE TROUGH
THAT SQUASHES THE HIGH MIDWEEK SLIPS IN FROM THE PLAINS WED-THU AND
BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTRALIZES OVER
THE DESERT SW DURING THAT TIME WITH STORM MOTION FROM THE NORTH,
WHICH TYPICALLY MEANS POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE WINDS ROLLING DOWN THE
UPPER RGV/TULAROSA BASIN.
THE UPPER HIGH IS PUSHED E TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY BY A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS IS LESS EXCITED ABOUT THE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MAKING IT DOWN HERE FROM THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WHILE THE 6Z GFS RUN HAS THE FRONT REACHING US MON/TUE. LONG-
RANGE NBM GUIDANCE HAS SOME COOLING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE
EAST WILL GET OUR MONSOON MOISTURE FLOW GOING AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD. WE'LL SEE EXACTLY WHERE THE MOISTURE PLUME AND ANY
SHORTWAVES SET UP TO DETERMINE THE FAVORED AREAS FOR STORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. PWS NEXT WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 1.1-1.3"
RANGE, WHICH IS AROUND THE 75TH %-ILE FOR MID-SEP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (4-8 DEGREES) THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE 90S. SOME SPOTS ALONG THE LOWER RGV
WILL APPROACH 100 INTO THE WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND
ORIENTATION OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPS LOOK TO FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL MON/TUE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH NEXT WEEK'S POTENTIAL COLD FRONT BRINGING BREEZY
E/NE WINDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
AROUND 10% THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY FOR TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR KDMN IN THE EVENING. OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 25KTS FOR KTCS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS AOB 10KTS FROM S-SE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE WEEK. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. MAINLY DRY TODAY FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE GILA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS
OVER THE LINCOLN. GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE THE MAIN
THREATS TODAY OUT WEST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT TONIGHT. LIGHT SE FLOW TODAY OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS.
STORM CHANCES INCREASE A BIT FOR TUE, FAVORING N AND W AREAS. AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS WED-THU, BRINGING SOME LIFT
AND INSTABILITY, CREATING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS
REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 20-30% IN THE LOWLANDS THROUGH MIDWEEK, 30-50% IN
THE MTNS. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TO GOOD THROUGH MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 97 75 98 / 10 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 68 92 68 93 / 10 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 70 95 70 96 / 10 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 68 94 69 95 / 10 20 10 30
CLOUDCROFT 50 70 51 71 / 10 50 10 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 93 72 95 / 20 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 63 88 64 89 / 40 20 20 60
DEMING 70 97 70 97 / 10 10 10 0
LORDSBURG 69 94 70 95 / 30 20 20 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 97 77 97 / 10 10 10 0
DELL CITY 70 96 71 97 / 0 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 75 100 75 101 / 10 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 68 90 69 90 / 0 10 10 20
FABENS 73 98 73 98 / 10 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 72 95 73 96 / 10 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 96 75 97 / 10 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 70 95 71 96 / 10 10 10 10
HATCH 71 97 72 99 / 10 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 72 97 74 98 / 10 10 10 0
OROGRANDE 69 94 69 95 / 0 10 10 10
MAYHILL 56 83 56 84 / 0 30 10 50
MESCALERO 55 83 55 83 / 10 40 10 70
TIMBERON 54 80 55 81 / 0 40 10 60
WINSTON 59 85 60 86 / 40 20 20 50
HILLSBORO 68 92 70 93 / 20 10 10 20
SPACEPORT 68 94 70 95 / 10 10 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 57 86 57 87 / 50 40 20 80
HURLEY 64 91 65 92 / 30 20 20 40
CLIFF 66 94 67 95 / 40 20 20 50
MULE CREEK 64 91 64 91 / 40 30 30 50
FAYWOOD 66 89 67 91 / 30 20 10 30
ANIMAS 69 95 69 96 / 40 20 20 10
HACHITA 68 94 69 95 / 30 20 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 94 67 95 / 30 20 20 10
CLOVERDALE 63 88 64 89 / 30 20 30 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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