414
FXUS64 KEPZ 080430
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1030 PM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1017 PM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
- STORM CHANCES PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON FAVORING AREA MOUNTAINS AND
WESTERN NM WITH LESSER ACTIVITY IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS. STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
UPPER HIGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS
TUESDAY BUT THE HIGH GETS DISSOLVED AND THEN REDEVELOPS ITSELF OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO PERSIST IN
THIS AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST EACH
AFTERNOON FOCUSING OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NM LOCATIONS
OF THE CWA. MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE DESERT
LOWLANDS. BIGGEST THREATS WITH STORMS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. FRIDAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE A DOWNTICK IN ACTIVITY, MOSTLY JUST FOCUSING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR WESTERN NM LOCATIONS WITH HARDLY ANY STORMS IN
THE LOWLANDS. A COUPLE OF PASSING TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
WILL MOSTLY DISSOLVE THE HIGH OVER THE AREA AND WOULD BRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BETTER AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING BUT
FOCUSED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM (AS OF 04:30Z). A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ARE STILL SLOSHING AROUND OUT THERE WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME WIND SHIFTS BUT WIND SPEEDS AREN'T TOO FAST ACCOMPANYING THE
BOUNDARY. MOST RECENT HI-RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS STORM
ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 06Z AND THEN SHOULD FINALLY
FIZZLE OUT FOR THE NIGHT. CALM AND QUIET IN MORNING HOURS TOMORROW
BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THAT AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE WEEK. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. MAINLY DRY TODAY FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE GILA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS
OVER THE LINCOLN. GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE THE MAIN
THREATS TODAY OUT WEST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT TONIGHT. LIGHT SE FLOW TODAY OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS.
STORM CHANCES INCREASE A BIT FOR TUE, FAVORING N AND W AREAS. AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS WED-THU, BRINGING SOME LIFT
AND INSTABILITY, CREATING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS
REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 20-30% IN THE LOWLANDS THROUGH MIDWEEK, 30-50% IN
THE MTNS. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TO GOOD THROUGH MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 96 75 97 / 0 20 10 20
SIERRA BLANCA 68 91 67 92 / 10 20 10 10
LAS CRUCES 70 95 70 95 / 0 20 20 20
ALAMOGORDO 68 94 69 94 / 10 30 10 40
CLOUDCROFT 50 70 51 70 / 10 50 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 93 72 94 / 10 20 20 40
SILVER CITY 63 87 63 88 / 40 20 20 50
DEMING 70 95 69 96 / 10 20 20 20
LORDSBURG 69 93 69 93 / 30 20 20 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 96 76 97 / 0 20 20 20
DELL CITY 70 96 70 97 / 0 20 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 75 99 75 100 / 10 20 10 10
LOMA LINDA 68 89 69 90 / 0 20 10 20
FABENS 73 97 73 98 / 10 20 10 10
SANTA TERESA 72 95 72 95 / 0 20 20 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 96 75 96 / 0 20 20 20
JORNADA RANGE 70 94 70 95 / 0 20 20 30
HATCH 71 97 71 97 / 10 20 20 40
COLUMBUS 72 97 73 97 / 10 20 20 20
OROGRANDE 69 94 70 94 / 0 20 10 30
MAYHILL 56 83 56 83 / 10 40 10 40
MESCALERO 55 82 55 83 / 10 40 10 50
TIMBERON 54 80 55 80 / 10 40 20 40
WINSTON 59 84 60 86 / 50 20 20 40
HILLSBORO 68 91 70 92 / 20 20 20 20
SPACEPORT 68 93 69 94 / 10 20 20 40
LAKE ROBERTS 57 85 57 86 / 50 50 30 70
HURLEY 64 90 65 90 / 30 20 20 40
CLIFF 66 93 66 93 / 40 30 30 40
MULE CREEK 64 90 64 91 / 30 30 30 40
FAYWOOD 66 89 66 89 / 20 20 20 30
ANIMAS 69 94 69 95 / 40 20 20 30
HACHITA 68 93 68 93 / 40 20 20 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 93 67 93 / 30 30 30 30
CLOVERDALE 63 87 63 88 / 40 40 40 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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