933
FXUS64 KEPZ 081127
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
527 AM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 441 AM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- STORM CHANCES PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON FAVORING AREA MOUNTAINS AND
WESTERN NM WITH LESSER ACTIVITY IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS. STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
UPPER HIGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS
TUESDAY BUT THE HIGH GETS DISSOLVED AND THEN REDEVELOPS ITSELF OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO PERSIST IN
THIS AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST EACH
AFTERNOON FOCUSING OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NM LOCATIONS
OF THE CWA. MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE DESERT
LOWLANDS. BIGGEST THREATS WITH STORMS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. FRIDAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE A DOWNTICK IN ACTIVITY, MOSTLY JUST FOCUSING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR WESTERN NM LOCATIONS WITH HARDLY ANY STORMS IN
THE LOWLANDS. A COUPLE OF PASSING TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
WILL MOSTLY DISSOLVE THE HIGH OVER THE AREA AND WOULD BRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BETTER AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OUR WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TODAY, GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. LIKE THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, OUR CEILINGS WILL BE UNLIMITED THIS MORNING,
BUT BY THE AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CEILINGS MAINLY IN
AREA MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AS USUAL THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.
WHAT THUNDERSTORMS THERE WILL BE WILL DIE DOWN BY EVENING AND WE
WILL HAVE A QUIET NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WE WILL SEE GENERALLY QUIET FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MIN RH'S TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20%.
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WE WILL SEE SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND
ISOLATED LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS OUR
WINDS WILL STAY WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. VENTILATION RATES
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 97 75 96 / 10 20 40 20
SIERRA BLANCA 67 92 67 92 / 10 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 70 95 69 94 / 20 20 50 30
ALAMOGORDO 69 94 68 93 / 10 40 50 30
CLOUDCROFT 51 70 51 70 / 10 50 50 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 94 72 93 / 20 40 40 30
SILVER CITY 63 88 63 87 / 20 50 20 70
DEMING 69 96 69 95 / 20 20 40 30
LORDSBURG 69 93 69 93 / 20 20 20 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 97 76 96 / 20 20 40 20
DELL CITY 70 97 70 96 / 10 10 10 30
FORT HANCOCK 75 100 74 100 / 10 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 69 90 68 89 / 10 20 30 40
FABENS 73 98 73 97 / 10 10 20 20
SANTA TERESA 72 95 72 94 / 20 20 40 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 96 74 95 / 20 20 40 40
JORNADA RANGE 70 95 70 94 / 20 30 50 30
HATCH 71 97 71 96 / 20 40 50 30
COLUMBUS 73 97 73 97 / 20 20 20 30
OROGRANDE 70 94 68 92 / 10 30 50 30
MAYHILL 56 83 56 82 / 10 40 40 70
MESCALERO 55 83 55 82 / 10 50 50 60
TIMBERON 55 80 54 79 / 20 40 40 60
WINSTON 60 86 60 85 / 20 40 20 60
HILLSBORO 70 92 70 91 / 20 20 40 50
SPACEPORT 69 94 69 94 / 20 40 50 30
LAKE ROBERTS 57 86 58 86 / 30 70 30 80
HURLEY 65 90 64 90 / 20 40 30 60
CLIFF 66 93 67 93 / 30 40 30 60
MULE CREEK 64 91 64 90 / 30 40 50 60
FAYWOOD 66 89 66 89 / 20 30 40 60
ANIMAS 69 95 69 94 / 20 30 30 30
HACHITA 68 93 68 93 / 20 20 30 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 93 68 93 / 30 30 30 40
CLOVERDALE 63 88 64 87 / 40 40 50 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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