146
FXUS64 KEPZ 081750
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1150 AM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 933 AM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- STORM CHANCES PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON FAVORING AREA MOUNTAINS AND
WESTERN NM WITH LESSER ACTIVITY IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS. STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL BE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS
TODAY, PUSHING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION FROM THE EAST.
BUT EVEN WITH THIS PUSH OF DRY AIR, THE COMBINATION OF PWAT VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN 1.1-1.3" AND THE CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. THE DESERT LOWLANDS WILL ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%)
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS WARMER AIR IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH WILL HINDER THE FORCING NEEDED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL RUN 4-7
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN MIDWEST WILL WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY SPLIT THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IN TWO ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
THE WESTERN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY. THE LOWER EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (30-60%) IN GILA AND
LINCOLN NATIONAL FORESTS. THE LOWLANDS ARE EXPECTED SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE (10-20%) OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY,
AND AN ISOLATED CHANCE (20-40%) ON THURSDAY. FOR BOTH DAYS, THE
BIGGEST RISKS WITH THESE STORMS ARE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING--ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST, WITH STORMS LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR WEST NEW
MEXICO. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE THE HOTTEST
DAYS OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PERSISTS, WITH THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY REACHING THE TRIPLE-DIGIT MARK BOTH DAYS. SOME
PASSING TROUGHS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL MOSTLY DISSOLVE THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THAT SHOULD BRING SOME
BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE OBSERVATION PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
BLOWING IN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. CEILINGS WILL BE UNLIMITED
AGAIN, THOUGH SOME MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND IN AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME -TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35KT NEAR THE
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL DIE OUT BY LATE EVENING AND CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
QUIET FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MIN RHS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20%.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WE'LL SEE SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
AND ISOLATED LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, LIGHT WINDS WILL BLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
TOMORROW, AND START TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY.
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE GENERALLY FAIR TODAY AND TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 98 75 96 / 10 20 20 30
SIERRA BLANCA 68 93 67 92 / 10 20 20 30
LAS CRUCES 70 95 69 94 / 20 20 30 30
ALAMOGORDO 69 94 68 93 / 10 30 40 40
CLOUDCROFT 51 71 51 70 / 10 50 40 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 95 71 94 / 10 20 30 30
SILVER CITY 64 88 63 88 / 20 50 20 70
DEMING 70 96 69 96 / 10 20 30 30
LORDSBURG 69 93 69 93 / 20 20 30 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 97 76 96 / 10 20 30 20
DELL CITY 71 97 70 96 / 0 20 10 30
FORT HANCOCK 75 100 74 99 / 0 20 20 30
LOMA LINDA 69 90 69 89 / 10 20 20 50
FABENS 73 99 72 97 / 10 20 20 20
SANTA TERESA 73 96 72 95 / 10 20 30 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 96 74 95 / 10 20 30 40
JORNADA RANGE 71 95 70 95 / 20 20 30 30
HATCH 72 98 71 97 / 20 20 40 30
COLUMBUS 73 97 73 97 / 10 20 30 20
OROGRANDE 70 94 68 93 / 10 20 40 30
MAYHILL 56 83 57 82 / 10 40 30 80
MESCALERO 55 83 55 81 / 10 50 30 70
TIMBERON 55 81 54 79 / 10 40 30 70
WINSTON 60 86 60 86 / 20 40 30 60
HILLSBORO 70 93 70 92 / 20 30 30 40
SPACEPORT 70 95 69 94 / 10 20 30 40
LAKE ROBERTS 58 87 57 87 / 30 60 20 80
HURLEY 65 91 64 90 / 20 40 20 70
CLIFF 66 95 66 94 / 20 40 20 60
MULE CREEK 64 91 64 91 / 20 40 40 50
FAYWOOD 67 90 66 89 / 20 30 30 60
ANIMAS 69 95 69 95 / 20 20 30 30
HACHITA 68 93 68 93 / 20 20 30 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 93 68 93 / 30 20 40 50
CLOVERDALE 64 88 64 86 / 40 30 30 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...41-ZOTTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page