260
FXUS64 KEPZ 140411
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1011 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1011 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY, WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED UPTICK BEGINNING TUESDAY. - DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE
IN DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
EACH DAY WILL BRING THE RISK OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
MID-LEVEL HIGH NOW OVER EAST TEXAS, WITH UPPER-LEVEL HIGH GRADUALLY
DRIFTING EAST TO JOIN. MONDAY BEGINS A 2-3 DAY RAMP UP IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AS FAR
AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING
RIDGING BACK WEST OVER THE CWA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, PERHAPS
CONCENTRATING BEST MOISTURE/CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER HIGH BEGINS DRIFTING BACK WEST
BECOMING MORE CONCENTRIC, ALLOWING BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD DISTRIBUTE THE MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES MORE EVENLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT MONDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGHEST PWS ARRIVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
BEST AREA-WIDE STORM COVERAGE AND RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS ON THESE
TWO DAYS. MODELS STILL SHOWING NUMEROUS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. A COUPLE OF THESE WAVES
PHASE IN WITH THE MID-LATITUDE JET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SWEEPING
THEM EAST BOTH DAYS.
MODELS DO BEGIN DIVERGING ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AFTER FRIDAY. GFS SHOWS
MAIN MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, AND FLUSHING THE MOISTURE
EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MOVING A FAIR WEATHER RIDGE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. ECMWF SLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH, NOT MOVING THROUGH AND
FLUSHING THE MOISTURE UNTIL MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND THIS WEEK--WE MAY HAVE SEEN
OUR LAST CHANCE TODAY FOR TRIPLE DIGITS. BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WE MAY EVEN SEE BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1011 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
SCT100 SCT-BKN250. ISOLATED BKN060CB -TSRA, MOSTLY OVER THE AREAS
CLOSES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, BUT CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH. GUSTY
WINDS 35-45 KNOTS NEAR SOME STORMS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PERSIST TO OR PAST 12Z. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN
AFTER 18Z, FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN FOLLOWED WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OVER THE LOWLANDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. WE WILL
BE ENTERING A VERY MOIST PATTERN WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS DECREASE.
MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 20S WILL SEE A STEADY
INCREASE TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY MID TO LATE WEEK. WITH
THE INCREASED MOISTURE, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
DAILY, PEAKING IN THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD, WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERNS. WINDS, APART FROM
THE THUNDERSTORMS, WILL BE LIGHT WHILE VENT CATEGORIES WILL RANGE
GOOD TO VERY GOOD TODAY, DECREASING TO FAIR TO GOOD FOR MONDAY,
AND THEN POOR TO GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 97 73 93 / 20 10 30 60
SIERRA BLANCA 68 95 68 92 / 20 10 20 50
LAS CRUCES 69 95 68 90 / 30 20 40 50
ALAMOGORDO 70 96 69 92 / 30 20 50 50
CLOUDCROFT 54 72 53 69 / 30 20 40 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 93 68 88 / 30 50 50 40
SILVER CITY 63 86 62 83 / 30 40 60 50
DEMING 68 95 67 90 / 30 30 40 50
LORDSBURG 69 92 68 87 / 30 50 50 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 97 73 93 / 20 10 30 60
DELL CITY 70 99 71 95 / 10 10 20 60
FORT HANCOCK 74 101 74 98 / 20 10 20 50
LOMA LINDA 68 89 68 87 / 20 10 20 60
FABENS 72 98 72 95 / 20 0 20 60
SANTA TERESA 70 95 70 91 / 20 20 30 60
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 97 73 93 / 30 20 30 60
JORNADA RANGE 66 95 65 91 / 30 30 40 50
HATCH 70 98 69 93 / 20 30 50 50
COLUMBUS 72 96 72 91 / 30 30 40 50
OROGRANDE 65 94 65 91 / 30 10 30 60
MAYHILL 59 85 59 82 / 30 40 30 60
MESCALERO 58 83 57 80 / 30 20 40 50
TIMBERON 56 81 56 79 / 20 20 40 50
WINSTON 59 83 58 79 / 30 60 60 70
HILLSBORO 68 91 68 86 / 30 40 50 50
SPACEPORT 64 94 63 90 / 30 30 40 40
LAKE ROBERTS 56 84 56 81 / 30 50 60 60
HURLEY 64 88 63 84 / 30 40 50 40
CLIFF 61 93 60 89 / 30 40 60 40
MULE CREEK 56 87 56 84 / 30 40 50 40
FAYWOOD 66 88 65 84 / 30 40 50 50
ANIMAS 68 92 68 87 / 40 60 50 60
HACHITA 68 92 67 87 / 30 50 40 60
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 92 67 88 / 30 50 40 70
CLOVERDALE 64 85 65 82 / 30 50 40 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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