496
FXUS64 KEPZ 150412
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1012 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1012 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
- A PATTERN SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING STEADILY COOLING
TEMPERATURES, INCREASING MOISTURE, AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY, ACROSS THE WIDER AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
UPPER HIGH NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF STATES. RIDGING STILL NOSING
BACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THOUGH MOISTURE COMPONENT IS GOOD
OVER ALL THE CWA, THE BEST MOISTURE STILL CONCENTRATES WEST OF THE
RG VALLEY. THUS OUR EARLY CONVECTION FOR THIS EVENING HAS BEEN IN
THAT AREA. HI RES MODELS SHOW THAT CHANGING THOUGH LATE TONIGHT AS
ISOLATED STORMS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH MOVES BACK WESTWARD, TO
TEXARK REGION BY THURSDAY. INITIALLY THIS RIDS THE HIGH CENTER OF
THE WESTERN RIDGE, SO THAT DEEP MOISTURE IS BETTER DISTRIBUTED
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. PWS WILL BE IN THE 1.3 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE BEST DAYS FOR AREA WIDE STORMS
AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE GILA/BLACK RANGE FOR TUESDAY, AND OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE TO BE
LOOKED AT FOR A POTENTIAL WATCH (PERHAPS MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY).
MODELS HAVE SPED THE HIGH'S WESTWARD MOVEMENT UP SOME, SO BY
THURSDAY THE HIGH IS CLOSE ENOUGH (TEXARK AREA) THAT MOISTURE MAY
BE NUDGED MORE OUT TO THE WESTERN CWA AGAIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH MIGRATES DOWN TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO MEXICO. MEANWHILE OVER OUR AREA THE
MOISTURE/SHORT WAVES GRADUALLY GET ENTRAINED INTO A MID-LATITUDE LOW
AND TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL SLOWLY SHUNT THE MOISTURE
BACK EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY FOR A BRIEF UPTICK IN STORM
ACTIVITY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO SATURDAY. DRYING
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY, THOUGH STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATE/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST
POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS, BUT PARAMETERS DON'T LOOK TO MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW ENTERING CALIFORNIA WILL
PROVIDE A DRY PUNCH INTO OUR AREA WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF STORMS.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE CALIFORNIA LOW MOVING
OVER NEVADA/ARIZONA, DRAWING UP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF RAIN AGAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1012 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
SCT090 SCT-BKN250. SCATTERED OVC060CB 4-6SM TSRA, MAINLY OVER
SIERRA, GRANT AND NORTHERN HIDALGO COUNTIES. ISOLATED STORMS
ELSEWHERE, THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS OVER LUNA, DONA ANA AND EL PASO
COUNTIES MAY INCREASE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. GUSTY WINDS OF 35-45 KNOTS
NEAR SOME STORMS, ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL. A FEW STORMS COULD LAST
UNTIL AROUND 10Z-12Z. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN MOST
AREAS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
WE HAVE SEEN A PATTERN SWITCH AWAY FROM WARM/HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TO NOT AS HOT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH THE THREAT OF FLOODING A POSSIBILITY IN THE GILA REGION. MIN
RH'S FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
30% AREA WIDE, WITH EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES AT NIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL STAY WELL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES. WE COULD SEE SOME
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ESPECIALLY TONIGHT FROM AREA THUNDERSTORMS.
VENTILATION RATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOKS FAIR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 71 94 70 92 / 30 20 60 30
SIERRA BLANCA 66 92 64 91 / 20 20 40 30
LAS CRUCES 66 92 65 90 / 30 20 60 40
ALAMOGORDO 66 92 66 92 / 30 20 50 70
CLOUDCROFT 51 70 49 68 / 30 50 50 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 66 88 66 86 / 50 30 60 60
SILVER CITY 61 83 60 80 / 40 40 70 70
DEMING 66 92 64 90 / 40 20 70 40
LORDSBURG 67 87 65 85 / 30 10 70 60
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 94 70 92 / 30 20 70 30
DELL CITY 69 96 67 94 / 10 20 50 50
FORT HANCOCK 72 98 71 98 / 20 20 50 30
LOMA LINDA 66 88 65 87 / 20 20 50 40
FABENS 70 95 69 95 / 20 20 60 40
SANTA TERESA 68 92 67 91 / 20 20 70 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 94 70 92 / 30 30 60 40
JORNADA RANGE 66 92 66 90 / 40 30 60 40
HATCH 67 94 66 91 / 40 30 60 50
COLUMBUS 70 92 68 90 / 40 20 60 30
OROGRANDE 65 92 65 90 / 30 20 60 50
MAYHILL 57 83 55 81 / 20 70 50 80
MESCALERO 55 81 53 79 / 40 50 50 80
TIMBERON 54 80 53 78 / 20 40 60 80
WINSTON 56 79 56 77 / 50 60 60 80
HILLSBORO 66 87 64 85 / 40 50 70 60
SPACEPORT 64 90 64 88 / 50 30 50 50
LAKE ROBERTS 57 82 56 79 / 50 50 70 80
HURLEY 62 85 61 82 / 40 30 70 60
CLIFF 62 89 63 86 / 50 40 70 80
MULE CREEK 58 84 59 81 / 60 30 70 80
FAYWOOD 64 85 63 83 / 40 30 70 60
ANIMAS 67 87 65 85 / 40 40 60 60
HACHITA 66 87 64 86 / 40 20 80 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 88 64 86 / 50 50 70 50
CLOVERDALE 63 81 62 81 / 50 60 60 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-SOUTHERN GILA
FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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