013
FNUS74 KEPZ 221334
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR CROOKED PILES RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
734 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE MOVING UP INTO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START AROUND MID AFTERNOON
WITH LIKELY RAIN THIS EVENING. LOOKING LIKE THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND GETS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BY THE WEEKEND.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 26 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 17
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (42300 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
SKY (%).........86 86 90 95 95
WEATHER COV.....NONE ISOLD CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 30 70 70
TEMP............57 65 67 66 63
RH..............96 61 65 65 75
20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 6 SE 10 SE 12 SE 12
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 23 26 26
MIX HGT (FT)....1300 2700 3600 3800 3000
TRANSPORT WIND..S 9 SE 10 SE 13 SE 17 E 13
VRATE KT-FT/1K..10 24 36 42 33
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR FAIR POOR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN
THE EVENING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8300 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........85 85 92 96 96 98
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).90 70 70 60 40 40
TEMP............61 59 56 56 56 56
RH..............81 93 100 100 96 100
20 FT WIND......SE 8 SE 8 SE 9 SE 8 SE 8 SE 7
20 FT WIND GUST.16 16 17 16 16 14
MIX HGT (FT)....1900 1200 900 800 1100 900
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 12 SE 15 SE 15 SE 12 SE 15 SE 17
VRATE KT-FT/1K..19 16 12 8 14 13
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, SHOWERS LIKELY IN
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MIN HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 24 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 13 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (40000 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........97 97 97 94 94 94 91 91 91 88 88 88
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 40 40 40 60 60 80 90 80
TEMP............55 55 53 55 59 62 60 60 60 59 59 59
RH..............100 100 100 100 93 84 90 90 90 90 90 93
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 12 12 12 10 10 10 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 22 22 22 24 24 24 24 24 24
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.0 1.4 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.9 2.9 2.4 2.4 1.7 1.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE S SE SE S S SE S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 16 17 18 17 17 16 16 15 16 13 13
VRATE KT-FT/1K..15 15 22 22 31 31 40 40 31 31 18 18
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR PR PR PR PR
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
THURSDAY
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH.
FRIDAY
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
SATURDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
FORECASTER...GRZYWACZ
REQUESTED BY...MATTHEW BARONE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2622243.1/EPZ
.DELDT 09/22/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MATTHEW.BARONE@USDA.GOV
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