761
FNUS74 KEPZ 221356
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR RUIDOSO LOOKOUT PILES RX...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
756 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE MOVING UP INTO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START AROUND MID AFTERNOON
WITH LIKELY RAIN THIS EVENING. LOOKING LIKE THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND GETS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BY THE WEEKEND.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (45300 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........96 86 76 76 73
WEATHER COV.....NONE ISOLD LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 60 70 70
TEMP............55 67 71 68 67
RH..............96 65 53 63 65
20 FT WIND......NE 2 E 3 SE 7 SE 7 SE 10
20 FT WIND GUST.6 7 15 15 18
MIX HGT (FT)....1300 4000 5300 4000 3400
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 8 S 9 S 9 SE 10 SE 13
VRATE KT-FT/1K..11 32 45 36 34
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR POOR POOR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN
THE EVENING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8800 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........85 85 90 93 93 98
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 60 50 40 30
TEMP............62 59 57 56 55 55
RH..............81 87 96 100 100 100
20 FT WIND......SE 8 SE 8 E 6 E 5 E 5 E 5
20 FT WIND GUST.16 16 13 9 9 9
MIX HGT (FT)....2100 1100 1400 1100 900 700
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 13 SE 12 SE 13 SE 12 E 12 SE 14
VRATE KT-FT/1K..23 12 16 11 10 9
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 24 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8200 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........94 83 81 89
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 40 60 80
TEMP............55 57 64 63
RH..............100 100 81 81
20 FT WIND......SE 7G20 SE 9G24 SE 10G23 SE 8G23
MIX HGT (FT)....700 1700 2600 2500
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 14 SE 16 S 16 S 15
VRATE KT-FT/1K..8 24 36 30
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
THURSDAY
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
FRIDAY
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
SATURDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT
WINDS.
FORECASTER...GRZYWACZ
REQUESTED BY...JON CRANE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2622317.0/EPZ
.DELDT 09/22/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JONATHAN.CRANE@USDA.GOV
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