558
FNUS74 KEPZ 221634
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR ARRASTRA PRESCRIBED FIRE...USWFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1034 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 2.5 INCHES
OF RAIN. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH WITH NEAR 100% RH RECOVERIES AT NIGHT
AND HIGH MIN RH'S DURING THE DAY. WINDS AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIGHT. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE POOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING,
THEN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20700 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
SKY (%).........93 93 77 77
WEATHER COV.....NUMRUS DEFNTE NUMRUS NUMRUS
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 80 60 60
TEMP............60 63 64 63
RH..............100 93 87 90
20 FT WIND......SE 8 SE 7 SE 7 SE 7
20 FT WIND GUST.17 16 16 16
MIX HGT (FT)....2000 2500 2500 2100
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 14 SE 13 SE 13 SE 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..24 28 28 21
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 9 TO 10 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4700 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........74 74 85 87 87 82
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 30 30 20
TEMP............63 60 58 57 56 55
RH..............90 96 96 100 100 100
20 FT WIND......SE 7 SE 7 E 7 E 7 E 7 E 6
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 13 13 12
MIX HGT (FT)....1800 1000 600 800 600 500
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 13 SE 12 SE 10 S 12 S 10 NW 10
VRATE KT-FT/1K..20 10 6 8 5 5
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (50000 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........73 64 54 50
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE SCTTRD SCTTRD
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 50 50
TEMP............55 59 67 71
RH..............100 100 78 66
20 FT WIND......E 7G13 SE 8G17 SE 8G18 SE 9G20
MIX HGT (FT)....600 1400 4100 4500
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 10 SE 10 SE 12 S 13
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 12 41 50
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR FAIR
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
FRIDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH.
SATURDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. EAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
SUNDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
FORECASTER...BRICE
REQUESTED BY...JON SELBY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2622329.0/EPZ
.DELDT 09/22/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MMUNOZ@BLM.GOV,GROMERO@BLM.GOV,JSELBY@BLM.GOV
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