535
FXUS64 KEPZ 231259
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
659 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 658 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
- LATE-SEPTEMBER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE CAPABLE OF FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEAVY RAIN UP TO 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE, WHICH
WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING FOR SOME AREAS.
- STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A LOWERING THREAT OF
FLOODING. MOSTLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND AND WARMER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
OUR BIG HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK OVER THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH WED AM WITH STORM MOTION GENERALLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD (0Z RAOB
PWS RECORDED 1.29") AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST,
WITH THAT PATTERN HOLDING STEADY THROUGH WED. FOR TONIGHT, WE'LL BE
UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK
THAT'S OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ADDITIONALLY, VORT MAXES/EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES PUSHING IN FROM CHIHUAHUA WOULD PROVIDE MORE FORCING FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE HREF AND REFS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH A CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT INTO
SOUTHERN LUNA AND DONA ANA COUNTIES. THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION IS MODELED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH DONA ANA AND
SIERRA COUNTIES EARLY WED AM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY AVOID
EL PASO, BUT THE SHARP QPF GRADIENT IN THE CAMS IS TOO CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN DATA FOCUSES THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OVER CENTRAL DONA ANA THROUGH SE SIERRA COUNTIES. MIDNIGHT-6AM IS
THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME TO SEE FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR DONA ANA AND SIERRA WITH
PMM SHOWING 2-3" IN THE LAS CRUCES VICINITY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
AMOUNTS TOWARDS T OR C (1-2"). HIGH-END RAINFALL SHOWS 4" OR MORE IN
ISOLATED AREAS.
WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED EARLY WED AM WITH ISOLATED CONSIDERABLE OR
EVEN CATASTROPHIC FLOODING. ARROYOS, SENSITIVE CANYONS, BURN SCARS
(LATER WED), AND URBAN AREAS ARE MOST VULNERABLE. EVEN RISES ON THE
RIO GRANDE CAN BE SEEN WITH MINOR FLOOD STAGE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF THE HIGHER END RAINFALL COMES TO PASS. MOST OF THIS RAIN
WILL EVENTUALLY END UP IN THE RIO GRANDE OR SIERRA CO RESERVOIRS.
AREAS ALONG AND W OF THE DIVIDE AND E OF THE 54 CORRIDOR ARE
FORECAST TO AVOID THE WORST OF THE RAIN THROUGH WED AM WITH MORE
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHIFTS NE DURING THE DAY WED WITH A
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX, BUT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE STILL
FORECAST. LESS CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND RAIN AMOUNTS WED PM, BUT
GENERALLY FAVORING SIERRA AND OTERO COUNTIES. ALL AREAS HAVE AT
LEAST A LOW RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH WED NIGHT, DECREASING OUT WEST.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2" IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SPOTS FOR WED PM.
FOR THU, THE FLOOD THREAT FOCUSES OUT EAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
WEST OF THE RGV. PWS REMAIN AT LEAST 50% ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE
RGV WITH A GENERAL LOW RISK OF FLOODING AND MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THERE'S A CONCERNING QPF BULLS-EYE OVER THE SALT BURN
SCAR ON THE 18Z REFS THU AFTERNOON, SO THAT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON.
MOISTURE LEVELS AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE BY SAT AND PWS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL. AREA MTNS AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR STORMS.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE
PACIFIC, POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM. PWS SHOULD
REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW-MEDIUM STORM CHANCES AREA-WIDE TO
END THE PERIOD.
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR WED (LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE 70S)
DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. WE'LL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY GUSTY
OUTFLOWS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULDN'T PRODUCE GUSTS MUCH MORE
THAN 40 MPH SINCE WE'RE SO SATURATED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
RAIN POSSIBLE FOR KTCS AND KDMN IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TRANSITION TO THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-18Z WITH
KELP AND KLRU HAVING THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS.
SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY STAY LIGHT AT 5-10KT OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. GENERALLY STAYING VFR TO MVFR WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO 3SM POSSIBLE DUE TO STORMS AND CIGS DOWN TO
AROUND 3000' POSSIBLE AT KELP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 658 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT WILL START
TAPERING OFF THURSDAY AND EVEN MORESO INTO FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND.
MIN RHS TODAY AND TOMORROW INCREASE TO 60-80% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 80-
100% IN THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TOMORROW WHERE FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS
THE AREA. MIN RHS FRIDAY WILL BE 40-60% AND 80-100% IN THE
MOUNTAINS. RHS DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND BOTH AFTERNOONS
BUT STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 MPH (OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 60 78 62 81 / 50 50 90 50
SIERRA BLANCA 57 78 57 79 / 50 60 80 60
LAS CRUCES 57 75 59 77 / 60 40 90 40
ALAMOGORDO 59 77 58 79 / 80 70 90 80
CLOUDCROFT 45 57 45 59 / 90 80 90 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 74 59 77 / 70 50 100 50
SILVER CITY 52 73 54 74 / 40 30 80 40
DEMING 57 77 58 79 / 40 30 90 30
LORDSBURG 58 77 60 79 / 20 10 60 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 78 63 80 / 50 50 90 50
DELL CITY 60 79 62 81 / 60 60 90 70
FORT HANCOCK 64 85 65 86 / 50 60 80 50
LOMA LINDA 56 73 57 75 / 60 50 90 60
FABENS 62 81 63 83 / 50 50 80 40
SANTA TERESA 60 77 61 79 / 50 40 90 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 77 62 79 / 70 60 90 60
JORNADA RANGE 58 75 59 77 / 70 60 90 50
HATCH 59 78 61 80 / 60 50 90 40
COLUMBUS 61 79 63 81 / 30 30 80 20
OROGRANDE 60 75 60 77 / 70 60 90 70
MAYHILL 52 70 51 73 / 90 70 90 80
MESCALERO 50 68 50 70 / 80 80 90 80
TIMBERON 48 65 48 67 / 90 70 90 80
WINSTON 50 68 52 71 / 50 50 90 60
HILLSBORO 56 74 58 77 / 60 50 100 50
SPACEPORT 56 74 57 77 / 70 50 90 50
LAKE ROBERTS 49 73 51 75 / 50 40 80 40
HURLEY 52 73 54 75 / 40 30 80 40
CLIFF 57 80 59 81 / 40 30 80 30
MULE CREEK 54 76 56 77 / 40 30 70 20
FAYWOOD 56 73 58 75 / 50 40 90 50
ANIMAS 60 78 61 81 / 20 10 60 10
HACHITA 59 77 60 79 / 20 20 70 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 59 79 61 81 / 30 20 50 10
CLOVERDALE 56 77 59 80 / 40 20 50 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO
COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER
CITY AREA-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHERN GILA
FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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