688
FXUS64 KEPZ 250555
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1155 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1059 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIFT UP THROUGH OTERO
COUNTY IN THE NEXT HOUR, AND LINGER LONGER IN EASTERN EL PASO
AND MUCH OF HUDSPETH COUNTY OVERNIGHT.
- ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE FEW STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.
- A QUIET WEEKEND IS AHEAD.
- DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEFORE
SWEEPING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL RETURN, PERHAPS ENHANCED BY TROPICAL
REMNANTS FROM POLO, BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
REGARDLESS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
ANOTHER BUSY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WOUND-UP CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA IS SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH A
NOTICEABLE DRY SLOT KEEPING SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO QUIET TONIGHT.
AN 80+ KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM NOSING INTO NORTHERN SONORA UP
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS, COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, HAS LED TO SEVERAL ORGANIZED
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN, ALL ARCING INTO
INDIVIDUAL MCSS. THE FIRST TWO MANAGED TO MORE OR LESS SPLIT
AROUND EL PASO CITY, BUT ARE MORE OR LESS MERGED TOGETHER AGAIN,
ARCING FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA COUNTY, DOWN THE TULAROSA BASIN, AND
JUST FINALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE EL PASO-HUDSPETH COUNTY LINE.
EXPECT STORMS OVER SIERRA COUNTY TO WEAKEN, WITH UPSCALE GROWTH
ACROSS OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTY. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF
STORMS NEAR AHUMADA IN CHIHUAHUA WILL LIFT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
HUDSPETH COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE'S STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
A FEW STORMS POPPING UP OVER EL PASO IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, AS
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE EARLIER PRE-MERGED COMPLEXES
MEET, BUT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTING EAST, IT'S A
FAIRLY LOW CHANCE.
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LOWER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THE UPPER LOW
IN ARIZONA WILL GRAZE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AS A WEAKENED TROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND A TRAILING VORT LOBE WILL WORK INTO
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY DEEP NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE,
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY (SBCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG).
EXPECT WE WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, SOME OF THEM APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS WITH 25-30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR LINGERING. SIERRA,
OTERO, AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND.
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED BACK INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY, RUNNING OUT WELL AHEAD OF 'POLO', WHILE AN UPPER LOW DROPS
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AGAIN. POLO LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES TOWARDS US OR THE BIG BEND
AREA. THE DYNAMICS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH POLO ARE THE BIGGER
PLAYER THAN THE MOISTURE, WHICH MOSTLY GETS WASHED OUT OVER BAJA
AND THE SIERRA MADRES. THE GFS SHOWS A MODEST JUMP IN PWAT AROUND
EL PASO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FROM ABOUT 1.45 TO 1.60 INCHES. THE
LATTER IS A HIGH-END VALUE FOR US, BUT POLO OR NOT, THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
DYNAMICS ALOFT, AS POLO WEAKENS INTO AN UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG
VORT MAX, ARE PERHAPS MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN ITS MOISTURE POTENTIAL.
500MB FLOW AHEAD OF ITS REMNANT TROUGH INCREASES TO 50-65 KNOTS,
SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULDN'T BE DOWNPLAYED. RIGHT NOW, THAT
AREA LOOKS TO MOSTLY STAY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF EL PASO, BUT WILL
NEED TO BE CAREFULLY WATCHED. OTHERWISE, THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY SLOTTING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
"KICKER" LOW WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z
GFS EVEN LOOKS A BIT DRY AND BREEZY AS LEE TROUGHING MERGES WITH
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF POLO'S LOW LEVEL REFLECTION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST ELP PRESENTLY. CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GRAZING THE
AIRPORT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH
LOWER VISIBILITY LOOK TO STAY JUST EAST. WITH STEADY MOIST EAST
OUTFLOW WINDS, EXPECT CLOUDS TO TOP THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED ON FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
WORKS IN. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, WITH
PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL, WITH A QUIET WEEKEND AHEAD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTIFUL TODAY AS MIN RHS ARE IN THE
MID 40S-MID 60S IN THE LOWLANDS AND BLACK RANGE AND UP TO 95% IN
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FAVORS AREAS EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
UP FROM CHIHUAHUA INTO EL PASO, HUDSPETH, OTERO, AND DONA ANA
COUNTIES. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY IMPACT
LUNA AND SIERRA COUNTIES IN THE LATE EVENING. MIN RHS WILL FALL
TO THE MID 30S BY THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON FRIDAY,
THOUGH A RETURN OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY INCREASE
MIN RHS AGAIN. WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST, AND VENTILATION RATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
WILL RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 79 64 84 / 70 20 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 58 79 57 83 / 60 30 30 10
LAS CRUCES 60 76 61 81 / 90 20 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 59 76 59 82 / 80 20 30 0
CLOUDCROFT 45 59 44 62 / 80 40 30 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 60 76 59 80 / 70 20 20 0
SILVER CITY 55 74 55 78 / 30 20 10 0
DEMING 58 81 60 84 / 60 10 10 0
LORDSBURG 60 82 60 84 / 40 20 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 78 63 84 / 90 10 10 0
DELL CITY 63 78 59 86 / 70 30 30 0
FORT HANCOCK 65 84 65 89 / 70 20 20 10
LOMA LINDA 59 74 59 78 / 90 20 20 0
FABENS 64 82 63 87 / 90 20 20 0
SANTA TERESA 62 78 62 83 / 100 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 77 64 82 / 90 20 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 59 76 60 81 / 80 20 20 0
HATCH 61 78 61 84 / 90 20 20 0
COLUMBUS 63 83 63 86 / 70 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 61 76 58 80 / 80 20 20 0
MAYHILL 53 69 49 78 / 80 40 20 0
MESCALERO 50 66 48 73 / 80 40 20 0
TIMBERON 49 65 48 71 / 80 40 30 0
WINSTON 53 73 49 75 / 30 30 10 0
HILLSBORO 58 76 58 81 / 70 20 10 0
SPACEPORT 58 75 57 80 / 80 20 20 0
LAKE ROBERTS 51 74 49 77 / 20 20 10 0
HURLEY 55 76 55 80 / 40 10 20 0
CLIFF 59 83 57 85 / 20 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 56 78 55 81 / 40 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 57 76 57 80 / 50 10 10 0
ANIMAS 60 84 61 86 / 20 10 0 0
HACHITA 59 81 60 85 / 20 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 80 61 86 / 30 20 10 0
CLOVERDALE 58 81 59 83 / 20 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO
COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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