540
FXUS64 KEPZ 250904
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
304 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 248 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIFT UP THROUGH OTERO
COUNTY IN THE NEXT HOUR, AND LINGER LONGER IN EASTERN EL PASO
AND MUCH OF HUDSPETH COUNTY OVERNIGHT.
- ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE FEW STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.
- A QUIET WEEKEND IS AHEAD.
- DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEFORE
SWEEPING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL RETURN, PERHAPS ENHANCED BY TROPICAL
REMNANTS FROM POLO, BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
REGARDLESS.
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SHOWN STEADY
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PERSISTING OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS EVEN AS DEEPER LOWLAND CONVECTION MOVES ON. SPC
MESOANALYSIS AND RAP13 SHOWS A 35-40 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO JUST AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVER ARIZONA. 200 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND WIND FIELDS HAVE
SHOWN INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS SE NEW MEXICO.
850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO BEING DRAWN UP INTO SE NEW MEXICO. THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LIKELY RESULTING IN SUSTAINED OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, FEEDING TOWARDS
THE SACRAMENTO-WEED-MAYHILL AREA. RECENT RADAR TRENDS MIGHT BE
SHOWING A MANIFESTATION OF THIS WITH A NARROW LINE OF DEEPER CONVECTION
TRAILING FROM FROM JUST NORTH OF TIMBERON CROSS THE TULAROSA
BASIN.
RAINFALL RATES ON VARIOUS TIPPING BUCKET RAIN GAUGES IN THE
SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN RUNNING AROUND 0.30
TO 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR. GIVEN 3 TO 5 INCHES OF PRIOR RAINFALL IN
RECENT DAYS, THIS IS LIKELY RESULTING IN INTENSE RUNOFF INTO
CREEKS AND STREAMS THAT FORM THE HEADWATERS OF THE RIO PENASCO.
WE'VE RECENTLY SEEN RAINFALL RATES DIMINISH A BIT, BUT THE
INCOMING DEEPER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GIVE US ANOTHER FINAL SHOT
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.
A "CONSIDERABLE" FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED AROUND 130 AM FOR
MANY OF THE HEADWATER STREAMS EAST OF THE SACRAMENTO CREST.
ADDITIONAL WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE SACRAMENTO RIVER
SHORTLY. BIGGEST CONCERNS FOR FLOOD IMPACTS INCREASE AS YOU GO
DOWNSTREAM ON THE RIO PENASCO, AGUA CHIQUITA CREEK, AND THE LOWER
PORTIONS OF JAMES, COX, ELK, AND SIXTEEN SPRINGS CANYONS,
INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF MAYHILL, SACRAMENTO, AND WEED.
BEST GUESS IS THIS LASTS ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO, WITH THE DRY SLOT
FINALLY MOVING IN. RAP13 SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL WIND MAX DIMINISHING
THROUGH 11Z, AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WEAKENING SLOWLY AS
WELL. DOWNSTREAM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WELL WITH ABQ AND
MAF.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
ANOTHER BUSY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WOUND-UP CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA IS SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH A
NOTICEABLE DRY SLOT KEEPING SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO QUIET TONIGHT.
AN 80+ KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM NOSING INTO NORTHERN SONORA UP
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS, COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, HAS LED TO SEVERAL ORGANIZED
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN, ALL ARCING INTO
INDIVIDUAL MCSS. THE FIRST TWO MANAGED TO MORE OR LESS SPLIT
AROUND EL PASO CITY, BUT ARE MORE OR LESS MERGED TOGETHER AGAIN,
ARCING FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA COUNTY, DOWN THE TULAROSA BASIN, AND
JUST FINALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE EL PASO-HUDSPETH COUNTY LINE.
EXPECT STORMS OVER SIERRA COUNTY TO WEAKEN, WITH UPSCALE GROWTH
ACROSS OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTY. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF
STORMS NEAR AHUMADA IN CHIHUAHUA WILL LIFT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
HUDSPETH COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE'S STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
A FEW STORMS POPPING UP OVER EL PASO IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, AS
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE EARLIER PRE-MERGED COMPLEXES
MEET, BUT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTING EAST, IT'S A
FAIRLY LOW CHANCE.
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LOWER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THE UPPER LOW
IN ARIZONA WILL GRAZE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AS A WEAKENED TROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND A TRAILING VORT LOBE WILL WORK INTO
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY DEEP NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE,
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY (SBCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG).
EXPECT WE WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, SOME OF THEM APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS WITH 25-30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR LINGERING. SIERRA,
OTERO, AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND.
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED BACK INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY, RUNNING OUT WELL AHEAD OF 'POLO', WHILE AN UPPER LOW DROPS
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AGAIN. POLO LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES TOWARDS US OR THE BIG BEND
AREA. THE DYNAMICS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH POLO ARE THE BIGGER
PLAYER THAN THE MOISTURE, WHICH MOSTLY GETS WASHED OUT OVER BAJA
AND THE SIERRA MADRES. THE GFS SHOWS A MODEST JUMP IN PWAT AROUND
EL PASO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FROM ABOUT 1.45 TO 1.60 INCHES. THE
LATTER IS A HIGH-END VALUE FOR US, BUT POLO OR NOT, THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
DYNAMICS ALOFT, AS POLO WEAKENS INTO AN UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG
VORT MAX, ARE PERHAPS MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN ITS MOISTURE POTENTIAL.
500MB FLOW AHEAD OF ITS REMNANT TROUGH INCREASES TO 50-65 KNOTS,
SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULDN'T BE DOWNPLAYED. RIGHT NOW, THAT
AREA LOOKS TO MOSTLY STAY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF EL PASO, BUT WILL
NEED TO BE CAREFULLY WATCHED. OTHERWISE, THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY SLOTTING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
"KICKER" LOW WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z
GFS EVEN LOOKS A BIT DRY AND BREEZY AS LEE TROUGHING MERGES WITH
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF POLO'S LOW LEVEL REFLECTION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST ELP PRESENTLY. CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GRAZING THE
AIRPORT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH
LOWER VISIBILITY LOOK TO STAY JUST EAST. WITH STEADY MOIST EAST
OUTFLOW WINDS, EXPECT CLOUDS TO TOP THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED ON FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
WORKS IN. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, WITH
PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL, WITH A QUIET WEEKEND AHEAD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTIFUL TODAY AS MIN RHS ARE IN THE
MID 40S-MID 60S IN THE LOWLANDS AND BLACK RANGE AND UP TO 95% IN
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FAVORS AREAS EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
UP FROM CHIHUAHUA INTO EL PASO, HUDSPETH, OTERO, AND DONA ANA
COUNTIES. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY IMPACT
LUNA AND SIERRA COUNTIES IN THE LATE EVENING. MIN RHS WILL FALL
TO THE MID 30S BY THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON FRIDAY,
THOUGH A RETURN OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY INCREASE
MIN RHS AGAIN. WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST, AND VENTILATION RATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
WILL RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 64 84 65 86 / 20 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 57 83 59 84 / 30 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 61 81 61 83 / 10 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 59 82 59 85 / 30 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 62 45 64 / 30 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 80 60 82 / 20 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 55 78 56 79 / 10 0 0 20
DEMING 60 84 61 86 / 10 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 60 84 62 84 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 84 64 86 / 10 0 0 10
DELL CITY 59 86 59 88 / 30 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 65 89 66 90 / 20 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 59 78 62 81 / 20 0 0 10
FABENS 63 87 64 89 / 20 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 62 83 62 85 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 82 65 85 / 20 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 60 81 60 84 / 20 0 0 0
HATCH 61 84 61 86 / 20 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 63 86 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 58 80 59 83 / 20 0 0 10
MAYHILL 49 78 49 79 / 20 0 0 10
MESCALERO 48 73 48 75 / 20 0 0 0
TIMBERON 48 71 48 73 / 30 0 0 10
WINSTON 49 75 50 76 / 10 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 58 81 59 82 / 20 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 57 80 57 82 / 20 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 49 77 50 78 / 10 0 0 20
HURLEY 55 80 56 81 / 20 0 0 10
CLIFF 57 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 20
MULE CREEK 55 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 57 80 57 81 / 10 0 0 10
ANIMAS 61 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 60 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 86 62 87 / 10 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 59 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA
BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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