078
FXUS64 KEPZ 251834
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1234 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. THE FEW STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS.
- A QUIET WEEKEND IS AHEAD.
- DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEFORE
SWEEPING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL RETURN, PERHAPS ENHANCED BY TROPICAL
REMNANTS FROM POLO, BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
REGARDLESS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN TO OUR WEST DRAWING UP
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE
AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ALOFT DRIER AIR WAS
MOVING INTO THE REGION SO THAT WILL HELP LIMIT OUR THUNDERSTORMS.
BUT WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH TO GIVE US A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AND
WITH THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND AND HAIL. THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE IN HUDSPETH COUNTY WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH 2 TO 3K CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY)
TO HELP GIVE THE STORMS AN EXTRA KICK.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND THAT WILL KEEP US GENERALLY DRY AND WITH OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS RUNNING VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. BUT
THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME
INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE POLO. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HURRICANE POLO WILL BE OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA. EARLY ON MONDAY IT WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE NORTH
AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. INITIALLY
ON MONDAY, THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DRAW ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PW'S) ON SUNDAY WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW A ONE INCH, BUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON PW'S WILL
RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.6 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ON TUESDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH POLO INTO THE REGION AND IT WILL DRAW THE REMNANTS OF POLO
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS WE UPDATE THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF
POTENTIAL RAINFALL. ON WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SWING ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING THE THREAT FOR RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AFTER WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE A DISTINCT DRYING TREND AND
THE END OF NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING VERY NICE. AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WE WILL SEE BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THEN WITH THE DRYING
TREND, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WE HAVE LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING, BUT THE
GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR THOSE LOWER CEILINGS TO SCATTERED OUT BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THESE STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREA
MOUNTAINS AND HUDSPETH COUNTY. WE WILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS TONIGHT,
BUT OUR CEILINGS WILL BE UNLIMITED. OUR SURFACE WINDS BE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AND THOSE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. STORM MOTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THANKS TO THE RAIN WE HAVE
RECEIVED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND HUDSPETH COUNTY.
MIN RH'S WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 30% INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AND
OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. WE WILL BE DRY
THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 62 84 63 86 / 20 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 60 84 61 85 / 40 0 10 10
LAS CRUCES 60 81 59 82 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 59 83 60 85 / 40 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 45 63 46 65 / 40 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 80 59 80 / 30 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 55 77 57 77 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 59 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 60 83 63 83 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 84 63 86 / 20 0 0 0
DELL CITY 61 87 60 88 / 40 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 65 91 66 91 / 30 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 60 79 61 81 / 30 0 0 0
FABENS 63 88 63 89 / 20 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 61 83 61 85 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 83 64 85 / 20 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 60 82 60 83 / 30 0 0 0
HATCH 61 83 61 84 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 62 85 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 59 81 58 83 / 30 0 0 0
MAYHILL 51 78 51 78 / 20 10 0 0
MESCALERO 49 73 49 76 / 40 10 0 0
TIMBERON 50 72 49 73 / 40 0 0 0
WINSTON 50 75 51 76 / 10 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 58 81 59 81 / 20 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 58 81 57 82 / 30 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 50 78 51 77 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 55 79 57 79 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 57 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 56 81 58 80 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 57 79 58 79 / 10 0 0 10
ANIMAS 61 85 63 84 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 60 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 58 82 61 82 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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