588
FXUS64 KEPZ 261136
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
536 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
- MAINLY DRY AND WARMER THIS WEEKEND.
- DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF POLO STREAMS INTO
THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH THE HELP OF ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER ARIZONA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL RETURN.
- SKIES CLEARING WEDNESDAY, WITH A PLEASANT BACK END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...RIDGING FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH, BRINGING IN MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER WITH SUPPRESSED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A
VORT CENTER OR POSSIBLE MCS OVER THE SIERRA MADRES OF MEXICO
SATURDAY AND THIS FEATURE MOVES SOME MOISTURE UP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. GFS ACTUALLY BRINGS SOME RAIN UP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO AREAS
WEST OF THE RG VALLEY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF POLO REMNANTS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS IT GRADUALLY GETS ABSORBED BY MID-LATITUDE LOW
SWEEPING INTO ARIZONA TUESDAY. LATEST GFS RUN BRINGS THE REMNANTS
ACROSS WEST TEXAS, WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT A BIT FURTHER WEST OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS CORRESPONDS BETTER TO OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST TRACK. BOTH SCENARIOS WOULD HAVE SOME POTENTIAL DANGEROUS
IMPACTS ON OUR AREA, BUT THE ECMWF PATH WOULD ESPECIALLY IMPACT
THE ENTIRE CWA. PWS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT CENTER AND THEN AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE KINDS OF PWS ARE AROUND 220% OF
NORMAL AND LIKELY RECORD HIGHS. OBVIOUSLY WE ARE LOOKING AT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH FLOOD POTENTIAL, THOUGH BRIEFER THAN THIS
RECENT EVENT WE JUST EXPERIENCED. GFS ALSO KEEPS WELL DEFINED
SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE MID-LATITUDE
LOW OVER CENTRAL OR WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS PWS DROP TO UNDER
ONE INCH. UPPER LOW WILL STILL PROVIDE LIFT AND WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY
THE UPPER LOW IS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS (SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE
ECMWF), WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA.
NEXT PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AFTER
WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE NICE DRYING OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AOB 8KTS FROM
S-SW. MAINLY SKC THROUGH THE DAY WITH SCT250 MOVING IN FROM WEST
TONIGHT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK. DRIER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH MINIMAL STORM CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY BELOW 10 MPH, SHIFTING WEST-SOUTHWEST.
RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY. HIGHER CLOUDS
MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURNING OVERNIGHT AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF POLO. HIGH
STORM CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, COOLING DOWN BY TUE.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 25-40% THROUGH SUN, RISING TO 40-65% ON TUE.
VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TO GOOD THROUGH TUE, BETTER OVER AREA MTNS
THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 86 65 87 / 0 0 20 40
SIERRA BLANCA 61 84 62 86 / 0 0 20 30
LAS CRUCES 59 81 62 82 / 0 0 20 40
ALAMOGORDO 60 84 61 85 / 0 0 20 40
CLOUDCROFT 45 68 47 64 / 0 0 20 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 80 61 79 / 0 0 20 50
SILVER CITY 57 77 59 75 / 0 0 20 70
DEMING 60 83 62 83 / 0 0 20 50
LORDSBURG 63 83 65 81 / 0 0 20 60
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 86 64 87 / 0 0 20 40
DELL CITY 59 87 62 88 / 0 0 20 40
FORT HANCOCK 66 90 67 93 / 0 0 20 40
LOMA LINDA 62 81 63 82 / 0 0 20 40
FABENS 63 89 65 90 / 0 0 20 40
SANTA TERESA 61 84 63 86 / 0 0 20 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 84 65 86 / 0 0 20 40
JORNADA RANGE 60 83 62 83 / 0 0 20 50
HATCH 61 83 63 84 / 0 0 20 50
COLUMBUS 63 85 65 86 / 0 0 20 40
OROGRANDE 58 82 60 84 / 0 0 20 40
MAYHILL 49 80 52 77 / 0 0 20 50
MESCALERO 50 78 52 75 / 0 0 20 50
TIMBERON 48 75 51 73 / 0 0 20 40
WINSTON 50 77 53 73 / 0 0 20 70
HILLSBORO 60 81 62 80 / 0 0 20 60
SPACEPORT 57 81 60 81 / 0 0 20 50
LAKE ROBERTS 39 79 51 74 / 0 0 30 70
HURLEY 56 79 59 77 / 0 0 20 70
CLIFF 41 84 55 82 / 0 0 20 70
MULE CREEK 38 81 52 77 / 0 0 20 80
FAYWOOD 58 80 61 78 / 0 10 30 60
ANIMAS 63 84 65 82 / 0 10 0 60
HACHITA 62 83 64 82 / 0 0 20 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 63 84 64 82 / 0 10 20 50
CLOVERDALE 62 83 62 80 / 0 10 10 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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