059
FXUS64 KEPZ 262332
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
532 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
- DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
- MOISTURE PULLED UP FROM TROPICAL REMNANTS IN NORTHERN MEXICO
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN IN RECENT WEEKS.
- DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT THURSDAY INTO EARLY OCTOBER AS THE
MONSOON SEASON COMES TO A RAPID END.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
OVERVIEW: MINIMAL CHANGES REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE WITH OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TODAY AND TOMORROW,
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL AIRMASS ON MONDAY.
WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND, WITH GENERALLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF HUDSPETH COUNTY WHICH
COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY DUE TO A WEAK PASSING
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE (PWATS
~1.2").
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY MORNING...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY (60-90%) EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A MOISTURE
INFLUX OVER THE AREA AS THE REMNANTS OF POLO MERGE WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW PASSING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE INDICATING
RECORD PWATS (1.4-1.6") AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FOR ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE PERIOD. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS NEXT PASSING SYSTEM, AS
SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM THIS PAST WEEK STORMS. HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOST LIKELY
RANGE AROUND 1-2" ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 3-4". ALTHOUGH WE CURRENTLY ARE UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH THE
INCREASED FLOOD CONCERN AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST,
ANTICIPATE THESE TO BE UPGRADED IN LATER PACKAGES. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL ALSO NEED TO BE EVALUATED AT A LATER PACKAGE. STAY
TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST
TO COME TO AN END THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM DRIFTS EASTWARD AND MUCH DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND IT AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK UP. THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING TO BE MUCH QUIETER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
FLOOD SAFETY...FLASH FLOODING CAN ESCALATE QUICKLY. HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS, ARROYOS, AND LOW-WATER CROSSINGS WILL FACE THE
HIGHEST RISK OF SWIFT, DANGEROUS WATER FLOWS. MAKE SURE TO CHECK
THE FORECAST OFTEN OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND
HAVE AT LEAST TWO WAYS TO RECEIVED THE WARNINGS. NEVER ENTER
FLOODWATER, ONLY 12" OF FAST-MOVING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY A CAR.
TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VMC EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT, MOSTLY VRB WINDS
OVERNIGHT, WITH SKIES SCT-BKN250. CONTINUED LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ON
SUNDAY, GENERALLY 100-150 AT 03-06 KNOTS. DRY WEATHER AGAIN
TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THANKS TO THE RAIN WE HAVE
RECEIVED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND HUDSPETH COUNTY.
MIN RH'S WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 30% THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. WE WILL
BE DRY THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 84 64 85 / 0 0 0 40
SIERRA BLANCA 61 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 20
LAS CRUCES 60 81 62 81 / 0 0 10 40
ALAMOGORDO 60 81 61 80 / 0 0 10 40
CLOUDCROFT 46 63 48 62 / 0 0 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 80 61 79 / 0 0 10 50
SILVER CITY 58 78 60 76 / 0 10 30 60
DEMING 60 85 62 84 / 0 0 20 50
LORDSBURG 63 85 64 83 / 0 10 10 50
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 85 64 85 / 0 0 0 40
DELL CITY 59 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 30
FORT HANCOCK 66 88 66 91 / 0 0 0 30
LOMA LINDA 62 79 62 79 / 0 0 0 40
FABENS 63 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 30
SANTA TERESA 61 84 63 84 / 0 0 10 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 82 65 82 / 0 0 10 40
JORNADA RANGE 60 82 62 82 / 0 0 10 40
HATCH 61 84 63 84 / 0 0 10 40
COLUMBUS 63 87 64 86 / 0 0 10 40
OROGRANDE 58 79 59 80 / 0 0 10 40
MAYHILL 51 76 52 75 / 0 0 10 50
MESCALERO 50 73 52 73 / 0 0 10 50
TIMBERON 50 70 52 70 / 0 0 10 40
WINSTON 50 75 54 73 / 0 0 20 80
HILLSBORO 60 81 63 80 / 0 0 10 50
SPACEPORT 57 81 60 80 / 0 0 10 40
LAKE ROBERTS 52 79 54 75 / 0 0 20 60
HURLEY 57 80 60 78 / 0 10 30 50
CLIFF 58 85 61 82 / 0 10 20 60
MULE CREEK 57 81 60 77 / 0 0 20 60
FAYWOOD 59 79 61 78 / 0 0 20 50
ANIMAS 63 86 64 85 / 0 20 10 60
HACHITA 62 86 63 85 / 0 10 20 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 62 86 64 85 / 0 10 10 70
CLOVERDALE 61 84 61 81 / 0 10 10 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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