359
FXUS64 KEPZ 270439
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1039 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
- DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
- MOISTURE PULLED UP FROM TROPICAL REMNANTS IN NORTHERN MEXICO
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN IN RECENT WEEKS.
- DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT THURSDAY INTO EARLY OCTOBER AS THE
MONSOON SEASON COMES TO A RAPID END.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
FOR SUNDAY, DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE-SEPTEMBER, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
MID-80S. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE A PRECURSOR TO THE
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION COMING OUR WAY.
TWO WEATHER FEATURES TO FOCUS ON IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE OREGON COAST TO OUR NORTH, AND
HURRICANE POLO SPINNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO OUR SOUTH.
TROPICAL STEERING PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR POLO TO DRIFT NORTH
TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA NEXT FEW DAYS, EVENTUALLY LATCHING ONTO THE
STRONGER MID-LATITUDE JET FLOW NEXT WEEK AND DISSIPATING AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SONORA/CHIHUAHUA.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE A RAPID MOISTURE INCREASE LOCALLY, THANKS TO
THE APPROACHING TROPICAL REMNANTS. PACIFIC LOW ALOFT WILL MAKE A
SOUTHEAST DIVE DOWN TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY, FORCED
BY A STRENGTHENING 75-KNOT JET STREAK ON ITS BACKSIDE. VEERING OF
MID-LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL IN
DEEP, TROPICALLY-SOURCED MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, MEASURED AT JUST 0.7" THIS
EVENING (00Z KEPZ RAOB), WILL SPIKE TO 1.5-1.6" MONDAY EVENING.
THIS MAY BREAK SEASONAL MOISTURE RECORDS FOR EL PASO, AND IS
EASILY 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THE END OF
THE MONSOON SEASON. THIS MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE, COMBINED WITH
PVA AND INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE STARTING AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN RAIN FOR ALL LOCAL ZONES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS UP TROPICAL MOISTURE LIKE
A FIRE HOSE INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. 48-HOUR RAINFALL
FORECASTS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD TOTALS RANGING FROM 1.00-2.00". NBM
GUIDANCE BACKS THIS UP. STRONGER STORMS AND TRAINING (OR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS) OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED
3-4". SOIL SATURATION IS VERY HIGH RIGHT NOW, SO RAIN WILL LEAD
TO RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING QUICKLY. A MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF
4) RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS IN PLACE ALMOST AREA-WIDE FOR
TUESDAY. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR ME WILL BE THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS, WHICH HAVE ALREADY HAD AN ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
SEASON AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. CURRENT
PLAN IS TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH, COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS, ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS EVENT. WFO EL PASO WILL BE
LIBERAL WITH FLOOD WARNINGS IN AREAS WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS IF
NEEDED TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL NM ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING, LIKELY BECOMING DRY
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ONCE ALL THIS ACTION PASSES, IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY "BORING"
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE START OF OCTOBER. STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST WILL USHER IN A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS LINGERING IN THE UPPER 70S THE REST OF THE WEEK
AHEAD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VMC EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT, VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT
WITH SKIES SCT-BKN250. CONTINUED LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ON SUNDAY,
GENERALLY 100-150 AT 03-06 KNOTS. DRY WEATHER AGAIN TOMORROW WITH
ONLY FEW090 DURING EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THANKS TO THE RAIN WE HAVE
RECEIVED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND HUDSPETH COUNTY.
MIN RH'S WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 30% THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. WE WILL
BE DRY THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 85 65 84 / 0 0 0 30
SIERRA BLANCA 61 84 62 83 / 0 0 0 20
LAS CRUCES 60 82 62 81 / 0 0 0 40
ALAMOGORDO 60 82 62 80 / 0 0 0 30
CLOUDCROFT 46 63 48 62 / 0 0 0 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 81 61 79 / 0 0 0 50
SILVER CITY 58 79 59 76 / 0 0 10 70
DEMING 60 85 63 84 / 0 0 10 50
LORDSBURG 63 86 65 83 / 0 0 10 50
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 85 65 85 / 0 0 0 30
DELL CITY 59 86 61 85 / 0 0 0 20
FORT HANCOCK 66 90 67 91 / 0 0 10 30
LOMA LINDA 62 80 63 79 / 0 0 0 30
FABENS 63 88 65 88 / 0 0 0 30
SANTA TERESA 61 84 63 83 / 0 0 0 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 83 66 82 / 0 0 0 40
JORNADA RANGE 60 83 63 82 / 0 0 0 40
HATCH 61 85 64 84 / 0 0 0 40
COLUMBUS 63 87 65 85 / 0 0 10 50
OROGRANDE 58 81 61 80 / 0 0 0 30
MAYHILL 51 77 53 75 / 0 0 0 30
MESCALERO 50 74 52 73 / 0 0 0 30
TIMBERON 50 71 52 70 / 0 0 0 30
WINSTON 50 76 55 73 / 0 0 10 70
HILLSBORO 60 82 63 80 / 0 0 10 60
SPACEPORT 57 82 61 80 / 0 0 0 50
LAKE ROBERTS 52 79 55 75 / 0 0 10 70
HURLEY 57 81 59 78 / 0 0 10 60
CLIFF 58 86 62 82 / 0 0 20 60
MULE CREEK 57 82 61 78 / 0 0 20 60
FAYWOOD 59 80 62 78 / 0 0 10 60
ANIMAS 63 87 65 85 / 0 0 10 60
HACHITA 62 86 64 84 / 0 0 10 60
ANTELOPE WELLS 62 87 64 84 / 0 10 10 60
CLOVERDALE 61 84 62 81 / 0 10 10 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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