263
FXUS64 KEPZ 271747
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1147 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER.
- MOISTURE PULLED UP FROM TROPICAL REMNANTS OF POLO WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN IN RECENT WEEKS.
- DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORCED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SHORT WAVE RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA AS INCOMING PACIFIC
TROUGH (JUST MOVING ONSHORE OF THE WEST COAST) APPROACHES THE
WESTERN US. AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH,
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BOTH TS ODALYS AND HURRICANE POLO WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS MOMENT, ODALYS IS CONTRIBUTING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE, WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR AREA AND LOWER
CLOUDS/PRECIP WELL FURTHER WEST. MOISTURE AHEAD OF POLO WILL
SLOWLY ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS (AND GFS/NAM12)
ARE SHOWING SOME PRECIP OVER SW NEW MEXICO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, SO DID PUT LOW POPS IN GRIDS FOR THIS AREA.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN EVENT STARTS WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES OVER SOCAL
WITH A 90+ KT SUB-TROPICAL JET ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE OVER
ARIZONA AND FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LAYERED
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE CWA, WITH PWS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES
OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE REMNANTS OF POLO REACH THE CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON (LATEST NAM12/ECMWF ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS), WITH
PWS STILL MAXING OUT AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS ABOUT 240% OF
NORMAL, WHILE DAILY PW RECORDS AT KEPZ ARE AROUND 1.3 INCHES.
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE POLO REMNANTS LIFTS OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH NEARS THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WAIN, WITH
PWS RAPIDLY FALLING BELOW ONE INCH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE
PACIFIC TROUGH IS OVER NE NEW MEXICO AND APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC TROUGH PERSISTS.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH BECOMING POSITIVELY
TILTED AND TRY TO RETROGRADE A CIRCULATION BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS COULD DROP A FEW SHOWERS OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES.
GFS MOVES WHAT WILL BE RACHEL OVER THE BAJA BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY SPREADING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA--ECMWF KEEPS
RACHEL WELL TO THE WEST.
***BOTTOM LINE FOR WEATHER/IMPACTS:*** FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOWER ON
AREAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE RAINFALL. WHAT WE CAN SEE FROM THE
MODELS IS THE RAINFALL ORIENTED IN A SW- NE PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MANY OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM ABOUT A LINE FROM COLUMBUS- ALAMOGORDO
NORTHWEST, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER SIERRA, LUNA, HIDALGO
AND EASTERN GRANT COUNTIES; GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES WITH A FEW AREAS
POSSIBLY RECEIVING UP TO 4 INCHES. TO THE AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
THIS LINE, RAINFALL OF .5 TO 2 INCHES, WITH LOCAL AREAS (MAINLY
THE SACRAMENTO MTNS) SEEING 3-4 INCHES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT100 SCT-BKN250. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A BKN070CB -TSRA OVER HIDALGO AND LUNA COUNTIES BETWEEN
21Z-03Z THIS EVENING. WON'T INCLUDE THIS CHANCE IN THE KDMN TAF
AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MAINLY DRY
TODAY WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS. A SHOWER OR STORM MAY
DEVELOP IN THE NM BOOTHEEL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY, SHIFTING WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON OVER AREA MTNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A HIGH RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING AREA- WIDE. FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL
ELEVATE THE FLOOD RISK. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS. TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MIDWEEK.
MIN RHS WILL BE 25-40% TODAY, RISING TO 60-90% ON TUE. VENT RATES
RANGE FROM POOR TO GOOD THROUGH MON, THEN MOSTLY POOR ON TUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 88 65 80 / 0 40 90 90
SIERRA BLANCA 62 86 63 81 / 0 20 70 70
LAS CRUCES 63 84 62 75 / 0 50 90 100
ALAMOGORDO 62 84 62 76 / 0 20 90 100
CLOUDCROFT 49 65 49 57 / 0 20 90 100
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 82 62 72 / 0 60 90 100
SILVER CITY 58 77 56 68 / 0 60 100 100
DEMING 63 86 62 76 / 10 60 90 100
LORDSBURG 65 85 63 73 / 10 60 100 100
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 88 66 80 / 0 50 90 90
DELL CITY 61 89 65 83 / 0 20 70 80
FORT HANCOCK 68 93 69 88 / 0 30 80 80
LOMA LINDA 63 81 61 74 / 0 20 80 90
FABENS 66 91 66 84 / 0 30 80 80
SANTA TERESA 64 86 64 78 / 0 50 80 90
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 86 64 78 / 0 40 90 100
JORNADA RANGE 61 84 63 75 / 0 50 90 100
HATCH 63 86 64 77 / 0 50 90 100
COLUMBUS 65 88 64 79 / 20 50 80 100
OROGRANDE 58 84 62 76 / 0 20 90 100
MAYHILL 54 77 54 70 / 0 20 80 100
MESCALERO 53 76 53 67 / 0 20 90 100
TIMBERON 53 72 52 64 / 0 20 90 100
WINSTON 56 74 55 66 / 0 70 90 100
HILLSBORO 65 82 61 73 / 0 70 100 100
SPACEPORT 59 83 61 73 / 0 60 90 100
LAKE ROBERTS 49 76 52 66 / 0 70 100 100
HURLEY 60 80 58 71 / 0 70 100 100
CLIFF 49 84 53 71 / 0 60 100 100
MULE CREEK 46 80 52 69 / 0 60 100 100
FAYWOOD 63 80 60 70 / 0 70 90 100
ANIMAS 65 86 64 75 / 20 70 100 100
HACHITA 64 86 62 75 / 20 60 90 100
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 85 63 76 / 20 60 90 100
CLOVERDALE 63 81 60 71 / 20 70 90 100
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST
TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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