851
FXUS64 KEPZ 280441
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1041 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- MOISTURE PULLED UP FROM TROPICAL REMNANTS OF POLO WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN IN RECENT WEEKS.
- NEW RAIN AMOUNTS 1 TO 2 INCHES WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING 3 TO 4
INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORCED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
TWO WEATHER FEATURES TO FOCUS ON IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND HURRICANE POLO
SPINNING OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. TROPICAL STEERING PATTERN
IS FAVORABLE FOR POLO TO DRIFT NORTH ON MONDAY, MAKING LIKELY
LANDFALL OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC LOW ALOFT WILL MAKE A
SOUTHEAST DIVE DOWN TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, FORCED BY A
STRENGTHENING 75-KNOT JET STREAK ON ITS BACKSIDE. A WEAKENING POLO
WILL LATCH ONTO THIS STRONGER MID-LATITUDE FLOW, SHIFTING IT
NORTHEAST INTO SONORA/CHIHUAHUA AND STRAIGHT TOWARD EL PASO ON
TUESDAY.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE A RAPID MOISTURE INCREASE LOCALLY, THANKS TO
THE APPROACHING TROPICAL REMNANTS. VEERING OF MID-LEVEL WINDS TO
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW WILL PULL IN DEEP, TROPICALLY-
SOURCED MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, MEASURED AT JUST 1.1" THIS EVENING
(00Z KEPZ RAOB), WILL SPIKE TO 1.5-1.6" MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
BREAK SEASONAL MOISTURE RECORDS FOR EL PASO, AND IS EASILY 3 TO 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THE END OF THE MONSOON
SEASON. THIS MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE, COMBINED WITH PVA AND
INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE STARTING AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN RAIN FOR ALL LOCAL ZONES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS UP TROPICAL MOISTURE LIKE
A FIRE HOSE INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. 48-HOUR RAINFALL
FORECASTS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD TOTALS RANGING FROM 1.00-2.00". NBM
GUIDANCE BACKS THIS UP. STRONGER STORMS AND TRAINING (OR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS) OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED
3-4". SOIL SATURATION IS VERY HIGH RIGHT NOW, SO RAIN WILL LEAD
TO RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING QUICKLY. A MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF
4) RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS IN PLACE ALMOST AREA-WIDE FOR
TUESDAY. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR ME WILL BE THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS, WHICH HAVE ALREADY HAD AN ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
SEASON AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WFO EL PASO WILL BE PROACTIVE WITH FLOOD
WARNINGS IN AREAS WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS IF NEEDED TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.
ON TOP OF THE HEAVY RAIN RISK, THE PASSING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAY STILL HAVE SOME STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. 00Z HRRR
RUN TONIGHT WAS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN, AND RECENT NAM RUNS HAVE
ALSO PICKED UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
EVENING AS POLO MOVES THROUGH. INCREASED FORECASTED WINDS FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR EL PASO, HUDSPETH, OTERO
COUNTIES WHERE STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH JUST AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED STORM TRACK COULD LEAD TO GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL NM ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE REMNANTS
OF POLO QUICKLY DISSIPATING. SUBSIDENT "DRY-SLOTTING" AT THE BASE
OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO DRIER WEATHER FOR OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
ONCE ALL THIS ACTION PASSES, IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY "BORING"
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE START OF OCTOBER. STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST WILL USHER IN A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM
RAINFALL. CONTINUED EAST SURFACE FLOW COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOWLAND HIGHS LINGERING
IN THE UPPER 70S INTO NEXT WEEKEND SEEMS LIKE THE BEST BET RIGHT
NOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SKIES FEW-SCT110, SCT-BKN250 TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS AOB 05
KNOTS. INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SCT-BKN080,
BKN-OVC150 BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHRA REACHING SW NM BY
18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. INCLUDED GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT KTCS AS FLOW
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD RAINS AND POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR VIS AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MAINLY DRY
TODAY WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS. A SHOWER OR STORM MAY
DEVELOP IN THE NM BOOTHEEL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY, SHIFTING WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON OVER AREA MTNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A HIGH RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING AREA- WIDE. FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL
ELEVATE THE FLOOD RISK. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS. TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MIDWEEK.
MIN RHS WILL BE 25-40% TODAY, RISING TO 60-90% ON TUE. VENT RATES
RANGE FROM POOR TO GOOD THROUGH MON, THEN MOSTLY POOR ON TUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 67 86 65 77 / 0 30 90 100
SIERRA BLANCA 63 84 62 78 / 0 30 90 70
LAS CRUCES 64 83 62 73 / 0 30 80 100
ALAMOGORDO 63 85 61 74 / 0 20 90 100
CLOUDCROFT 49 65 48 55 / 0 20 90 100
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 63 82 62 69 / 0 60 100 100
SILVER CITY 61 76 57 65 / 0 90 100 100
DEMING 64 85 61 73 / 0 60 90 100
LORDSBURG 66 83 62 71 / 0 80 90 100
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 87 65 77 / 0 30 90 100
DELL CITY 62 88 65 81 / 0 20 80 80
FORT HANCOCK 69 92 68 86 / 0 40 90 70
LOMA LINDA 63 81 61 72 / 0 40 90 90
FABENS 67 90 66 82 / 0 40 90 90
SANTA TERESA 65 85 63 75 / 0 40 80 100
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 86 64 75 / 0 30 90 100
JORNADA RANGE 64 84 62 72 / 0 30 80 100
HATCH 65 86 63 74 / 0 40 90 100
COLUMBUS 66 85 64 75 / 0 50 80 90
OROGRANDE 61 84 62 73 / 0 20 90 100
MAYHILL 54 77 54 67 / 0 10 90 100
MESCALERO 53 76 53 65 / 0 10 90 100
TIMBERON 53 72 52 62 / 0 20 100 100
WINSTON 56 75 54 64 / 0 70 90 100
HILLSBORO 65 81 60 71 / 0 70 100 100
SPACEPORT 62 83 60 70 / 0 50 100 100
LAKE ROBERTS 56 75 54 64 / 0 80 100 100
HURLEY 61 79 57 68 / 0 90 90 100
CLIFF 63 83 61 71 / 10 80 100 100
MULE CREEK 61 79 57 66 / 10 90 100 100
FAYWOOD 63 79 60 67 / 0 80 100 100
ANIMAS 66 84 63 73 / 10 70 90 100
HACHITA 65 84 61 72 / 10 70 90 100
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 83 62 73 / 10 60 80 100
CLOVERDALE 62 78 59 67 / 10 60 80 100
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST
TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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