727
FXUS64 KEPZ 281144
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
544 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2026
- MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL REMNANTS OF POLO WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY
WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN IN RECENT WEEKS.
- NEW RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING 3 TO 4 INCHES. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
MOISTURE IS PUSHED EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
TWO WEATHER FEATURES TO FOCUS ON IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND HURRICANE POLO
SPINNING OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. TROPICAL STEERING PATTERN
IS FAVORABLE FOR POLO TO DRIFT NORTH ON MONDAY, MAKING LIKELY
LANDFALL OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC LOW ALOFT WILL MAKE A
SOUTHEAST DIVE DOWN TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, FORCED BY A
STRENGTHENING 75-KNOT JET STREAK ON ITS BACKSIDE. A WEAKENING POLO
WILL LATCH ONTO THIS STRONGER MID-LATITUDE FLOW, SHIFTING IT
NORTHEAST INTO SONORA/CHIHUAHUA AND STRAIGHT TOWARD EL PASO ON
TUESDAY.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE A RAPID MOISTURE INCREASE LOCALLY, THANKS TO
THE APPROACHING TROPICAL REMNANTS. VEERING OF MID-LEVEL WINDS TO
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW WILL PULL IN DEEP, TROPICALLY-
SOURCED MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, MEASURED AT JUST 1.1" THIS EVENING
(00Z KEPZ RAOB), WILL SPIKE TO 1.5-1.6" MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
BREAK SEASONAL MOISTURE RECORDS FOR EL PASO, AND IS EASILY 3 TO 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THE END OF THE MONSOON
SEASON. THIS MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE, COMBINED WITH PVA AND
INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE STARTING AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN RAIN FOR ALL LOCAL ZONES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS UP TROPICAL MOISTURE LIKE
A FIRE HOSE INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. 48-HOUR RAINFALL
FORECASTS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD TOTALS RANGING FROM 1.00-2.00". NBM
GUIDANCE BACKS THIS UP. STRONGER STORMS AND TRAINING (OR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS) OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED
3-4". SOIL SATURATION IS VERY HIGH RIGHT NOW, SO RAIN WILL LEAD
TO RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING QUICKLY. A MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF
4) RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS IN PLACE ALMOST AREA-WIDE FOR
TUESDAY. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR ME WILL BE THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS, WHICH HAVE ALREADY HAD AN ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
SEASON AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WFO EL PASO WILL BE PROACTIVE WITH FLOOD
WARNINGS IN AREAS WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS IF NEEDED TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.
ON TOP OF THE HEAVY RAIN RISK, THE PASSING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAY STILL HAVE SOME STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. 00Z HRRR
RUN TONIGHT WAS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN, AND RECENT NAM RUNS HAVE
ALSO PICKED UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
EVENING AS POLO MOVES THROUGH. INCREASED FORECASTED WINDS FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR EL PASO, HUDSPETH, OTERO
COUNTIES WHERE STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH JUST AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED STORM TRACK COULD LEAD TO GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL NM ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE REMNANTS
OF POLO QUICKLY DISSIPATING. SUBSIDENT "DRY-SLOTTING" AT THE BASE
OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO DRIER WEATHER FOR OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
ONCE ALL THIS ACTION PASSES, IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY "BORING"
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE START OF OCTOBER. STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST WILL USHER IN A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM
RAINFALL. CONTINUED EAST SURFACE FLOW COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOWLAND HIGHS LINGERING
IN THE UPPER 70S INTO NEXT WEEKEND SEEMS LIKE THE BEST BET RIGHT
NOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2026
CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VIRGA SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
PROGRESSING NE. SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD AFTER 21Z.
EMBEDDED TS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
OVERNIGHT IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. TS MAY LOWER VIS TO MVFR OR IFR
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. CLOUDS LOWER TO ABOUT 030 LATE IN PERIOD, MOST
LIKELY AT KTCS AND KDMN. SOME GUSTS TO UPPER TEENS FROM S-SE THIS
AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE WINDS AOB 8KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TODAY, BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY TONIGHT.
HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A MEDIUM-HIGH
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, WORSENED BY SATURATED SOILS FROM LAST
WEEKS' RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE BREEZIER TODAY FROM THE SOUTH WITH
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COOLER TOMORROW WITH POSSIBLY STRONG
WINDS IN THE EVENING FOR EASTERN AREAS AS POLO'S REMNANTS COME
ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE WED AM BEHIND THE
PASSING UPPER LOW WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BEGINNING THU.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 35-55% TODAY, RISING TO 60-90% TUE. VENT RATES
WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MOSTLY POOR TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 65 77 61 74 / 90 100 70 0
SIERRA BLANCA 62 78 58 72 / 90 70 70 10
LAS CRUCES 62 73 56 72 / 80 100 70 0
ALAMOGORDO 61 74 56 72 / 90 100 90 30
CLOUDCROFT 48 55 42 51 / 90 100 90 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 69 54 72 / 100 100 70 20
SILVER CITY 57 65 48 65 / 100 100 70 20
DEMING 61 73 54 73 / 90 100 60 0
LORDSBURG 62 71 54 70 / 90 100 60 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 65 77 60 74 / 90 100 70 0
DELL CITY 65 81 61 76 / 80 80 80 0
FORT HANCOCK 68 86 63 80 / 90 70 70 10
LOMA LINDA 61 72 56 67 / 90 90 80 0
FABENS 66 82 61 77 / 90 90 70 0
SANTA TERESA 63 75 58 73 / 80 100 70 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 75 59 74 / 90 100 80 10
JORNADA RANGE 62 72 55 72 / 80 100 80 20
HATCH 63 74 56 75 / 90 100 70 10
COLUMBUS 64 75 58 75 / 80 90 60 0
OROGRANDE 62 73 56 71 / 90 100 80 10
MAYHILL 54 67 49 65 / 90 100 80 20
MESCALERO 53 65 47 61 / 90 100 90 50
TIMBERON 52 62 46 59 / 100 100 90 30
WINSTON 54 64 45 65 / 90 100 70 20
HILLSBORO 60 71 52 72 / 100 100 60 10
SPACEPORT 60 70 54 72 / 100 100 70 20
LAKE ROBERTS 54 64 45 64 / 100 100 70 20
HURLEY 57 68 49 68 / 90 100 60 10
CLIFF 61 71 54 71 / 100 100 70 30
MULE CREEK 57 66 49 67 / 100 100 70 30
FAYWOOD 60 67 51 68 / 100 100 70 0
ANIMAS 63 73 54 73 / 90 100 50 0
HACHITA 61 72 54 72 / 90 100 60 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 62 73 55 74 / 80 100 60 0
CLOVERDALE 59 67 52 68 / 80 100 70 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST
TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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