157
FNUS74 KEPZ 291126
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR RX ARRASTRA...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
526 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
IT WILL RAIN MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
LARGELY STEADY, KEEPING MIXING HEIGHTS LOW, AND THUS VENT
CATEGORIES WILL BE POOR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY, TOPPING OUT
AROUND 10 MPH THOUGH STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
WIND SHIFTS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TAPERING OFF LATER THIS
EVENING BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW THOUGH WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER
MIXING, YIELDING GOOD VENT CATEGORIES WITH SMOKE TRANSPORT TO THE
EAST.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MIN HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (14000 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........93 91 90 90 89
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).90 90 100 100 100
TEMP............55 56 57 58 58
RH..............96 100 100 96 96
20 FT WIND......S 9 S 10 S 9 S 9 S 8
20 FT WIND GUST.18 20 20 20 20
MIX HGT (FT)....1300 1600 1900 2000 1600
TRANSPORT WIND..S 13 S 13 S 14 S 15 S 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..14 19 21 21 17
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
EVENING. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
WEST 11 TO 12 MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10900 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........90 90 63 76 76 74
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).100 100 50 40 40 30
TEMP............56 52 50 49 48 48
RH..............100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT WIND......S 8 S 8 SW 12 W 12 W 12 W 11
20 FT WIND GUST.21 21 25 24 24 25
MIX HGT (FT)....1300 1300 1400 1400 1200 1000
TRANSPORT WIND..W 12 W 13 W 16 W 15 W 15 W 14
VRATE KT-FT/1K..13 17 17 17 11 11
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MIN HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12 TO 14 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (64800 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........94 85 82 86
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE S CHC S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 50 70 60
TEMP............47 52 56 58
RH..............100 86 80 75
20 FT WIND......W 12G26 W 14G28 W 14G26 W 14G26
MIX HGT (FT)....1100 2000 5000 4100
TRANSPORT WIND..W 15 W 17 W 21 W 18
VRATE KT-FT/1K..18 30 65 56
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR GOOD FAIR
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
THURSDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. EAST
WINDS AROUND 9 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST
WINDS AROUND 8 MPH.
FORECASTER...BROWN
REQUESTED BY...SILVER CITY INTERAGENCY DISPATCH CENTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2622435.6/EPZ
.DELDT 09/29/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MMUNOZ@BLM.GOV,NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV,GROMERO@BLM.GOV,JSELBY@BLM.GOV
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