641
FNUS74 KEPZ 301149
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR RX ARRASTRA...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
549 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER FOR TODAY AS THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST. HOWEVER, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN
FROM ARIZONA, BRINGING LOW RAIN CHANCES TO THE SITE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES WON'T BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY, BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE
DAY. VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY TONIGHT, STAYING ON THE BREEZY SIDE. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND FAIR TO GOOD
VENTILATION. RAIN CHANCES DROP TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH MIN RHS AROUND 50%.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN
THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MIN HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (72500 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........84 73 73 73 68
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE S CHC S CHC S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 20 20 20
TEMP............47 49 53 54 55
RH..............93 96 86 86 80
20 FT WIND......W 12 W 12 W 15 W 15 W 16
20 FT WIND GUST.21 23 28 28 28
MIX HGT (FT)....2000 2800 3200 4000 3400
TRANSPORT WIND..W 18 W 18 W 18 W 21 W 20
VRATE KT-FT/1K..30 42 55 73 57
VENTRATE CAT....POOR FAIR FAIR GOOD FAIR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 12 TO
13 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (40900 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........60 60 51 35 35 26
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 0 0 0
TEMP............55 51 48 48 47 46
RH..............77 86 93 89 93 89
20 FT WIND......W 13 W 13 NW 10 NW 8 NW 8 N 8
20 FT WIND GUST.24 24 20 15 15 15
MIX HGT (FT)....2600 1000 800 900 600 600
TRANSPORT WIND..W 18 W 15 W 13 NW 14 N 13 N 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..41 12 10 10 7 7
VENTRATE CAT....FAIR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (61300 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........29 14 23 51
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............46 50 62 65
RH..............86 93 60 58
20 FT WIND......N 8G15 N 7G12 N 6G9 NE 6G9
MIX HGT (FT)....700 1100 6200 6600
TRANSPORT WIND..N 13 N 13 N 14 NE 9
VRATE KT-FT/1K..8 12 61 47
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR GOOD FAIR
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST
WINDS AROUND 9 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST
WINDS AROUND 8 MPH.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
FORECASTER...ARONSON
REQUESTED BY...SILVER CITY INTERAGENCY DISPATCH CENTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2622435.7/EPZ
.DELDT 09/30/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV,GROMERO@BLM.GOV,JSELBY@BLM.GOV,MMUNOZ@BLM.GOV
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