354
FXUS64 KEPZ 120431
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1031 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING.
- MOSTLY DRY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- COOL BLAST OF AIR WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
LONG WAVE UL TROUGH COVERS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN OR. SOMEWHERE EMBEDDED IN THAT
TROUGH IS THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL. CLOSER TO HOME, A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA WITH
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WANING AND EXITING, LEAVING MOST OF US DRY
OVERNIGHT. THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH STICKS AROUND FOR MONDAY, BUT WE
LOSE ANY MEANINGFUL DYNAMICS. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY.
MOISTURE, ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SIMON, WILL BE PULLED
NORTHWARD THANKS TO THE TROUGH, AND BY MONDAY EVENING THERE WILL
BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS HUDSPETH COUNTY AS MOST
OF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON STAYS EAST OF THE AREA. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER, STRONGER WAVE OF MOISTURE ON TUESDAY, BUT AGAIN,
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY EAST, ONLY GIVING HUDSPETH COUNTY A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BY WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UL LOW (SAME ONE THAT IS NOW OVER OREGON)
WILL EXIT INTO THE PLAINS, COMPLETELY PLACING SOUTHERN NM AND FAR
WEST TEXAS IN THE DRY SLOT, BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UL LOW WILL ALSO SEND COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD IN
ITS WAKE. THE GFS IS A TAD QUICKER THAN EURO WITH THE FRONT, BUT
IN ANY CASE, WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY
FOR WEST SLOPE AREAS BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING. CURRENT OPERATIONAL
NBM SHOWS WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING LEVEL WINDS WITH
THIS FRONT, SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALSO VERY MUCH SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST WITH MANY OF OUR
WEST SLOPE LOCATIONS SHOWING A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 50 MPH GUSTS. FRIDAY WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL FEEL A BIT BRISK!
A PIECE OF THE TROUGH BREAKS OFF ON THURSDAY, AND THE GFS AND
EURO SHOW A BROAD CLOSED LOW FORMING OFF THE BAJA COAST BY FRIDAY
WITH MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD. THIS MOISTURE IS, CHECKS AND
RECHECKS MODEL DATA, ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON, WHICH MANAGES TO
SURVIVE HAVING PART OF IT SHEARED OFF EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN090-150 TONIGHT BECOMING
SKC-FEW250 BY MORNING. AN ISO SHRA OR TSRA CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT CHANCES/CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE ARE
LOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
FROM THE W OR SW (220-250) TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS BY 18Z, DECREASING AGAIN AFTER DARK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. MIN RHS STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EACH AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TOMORROW
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES AS
THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER, DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY EASTERLY
CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE INT'L BORDER AND ESPECIALLY WINDY
FOR WEST FACING SLOPES. MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO
WHETHER WE COULD SEE RAIN OR NOT FROM THIS COLD FRONT.
MIN RHS IN THE LOWLANDS WILL BE 25-35% AND 40-60% IN THE AREA
MOUNTAINS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BREEZY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 MPH
SUSTAINED. TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT DIPS TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 85 63 84 / 30 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 63 85 62 82 / 50 0 20 0
LAS CRUCES 61 81 58 79 / 20 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 62 82 60 80 / 60 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 47 60 45 58 / 60 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 79 55 78 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 52 71 50 70 / 30 10 10 10
DEMING 58 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 58 77 54 77 / 10 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 84 65 83 / 30 0 0 0
DELL CITY 64 88 63 86 / 50 0 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 68 92 66 90 / 50 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 61 78 59 76 / 30 0 0 0
FABENS 66 88 64 86 / 30 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 64 83 61 82 / 30 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 84 62 83 / 50 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 61 81 57 80 / 30 0 0 0
HATCH 60 83 57 82 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 61 84 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 62 82 59 81 / 50 0 0 0
MAYHILL 52 74 52 72 / 40 0 0 0
MESCALERO 51 71 50 69 / 60 0 0 0
TIMBERON 51 69 50 67 / 60 0 0 0
WINSTON 49 72 45 71 / 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 56 77 53 77 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 58 80 55 78 / 20 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 47 69 44 68 / 40 10 10 0
HURLEY 52 74 50 74 / 10 10 0 0
CLIFF 56 75 53 75 / 50 20 10 10
MULE CREEK 53 71 50 70 / 50 30 10 20
FAYWOOD 55 73 52 73 / 10 10 0 0
ANIMAS 59 79 55 79 / 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 57 79 55 79 / 0 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 58 81 55 81 / 0 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 56 73 52 73 / 10 20 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page