327
FXUS64 KEPZ 121916
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
116 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 115 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
GILA REGION AND HUDSPETH COUNTY.
- MOSTLY DRY, BREEZY, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- COLD BLAST OF AIR WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
UPPER CUTOFF LOW SITUATED OVER THE PACNW TODAY WILL JOG SOUTH TODAY
AND TOMORROW MAKING IT TO NORTHERN AZ BY LATE TUESDAY, THEN CROSSES
THE FOUR CORNERS AND STARTS TO LIFT OUT BY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE
UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND THEN RE-CENTERS
ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US BY MID-WEEK. THE REST OF TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE QUIET CONDITIONS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, SOME BREEZINESS TUESDAY BUT
LIGHTER BREEZES ON WEDNESDAY, AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS.
SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS WEDNESDAY IN SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
STILL EXPECTING A POTENT COLD FRONT TO PUSH IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS
LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. WINDS MAY START SHIFTING NORTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY BECOMING BREEZY BUT AFTER SUNSET IS WHEN THE
FRONT REALLY PUSHES THROUGH. EXPECT A BRISK THURSDAY NIGHT,
OVERNIGHT, AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS AT 25-40 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
RIDGE TOPS AND WEST FACING SLOPES LIKE THE HUECO TANKS, WEST EL
PASO, ETC. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
BEING COUNTIES ALONG THE INT'L BORDER WHERE THE STRONGEST BELT OF
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, AS WELL AS WEST FACING SLOPES IN EL PASO AND
THE HUECO TANKS. WINDS SOMEWHAT RELAX THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT
STILL WILL BE NOTICEABLY BREEZY. ONE LOCATION TO WATCH OUT FOR
FRIDAY WILL BE THE LORDSBURG PLAYA CAUSING DUST FROM THE STRONG
WINDS. MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE THAT THE AREA WILL SEE SOME
RAIN ALONG WITH THIS COLD FRONT. CLOUDCROFT COULD POTENTIALLY SEE
SOME FLURRIES OR A QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW FRIDAY MORNING. SIMILAR
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AS WHAT WE'LL SEE FRIDAY (LOWLANDS: LOW
TO MID 60S, MTNS: 40S AND LOW 50S). STILL GOING TO BE WINDY LATE
FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS RELAX THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL STAY BREEZY OUT WEST NEARING THE AZ BORDER.
THIS MAY BE ANOTHER DAY TO WATCH FOR BLOWING DUST ON THE LORDSBURG
PLAYA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY (NOT AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY) WITH MAXIMUM SPEEDS TOPPING OUT ANYWHERE FROM
12-25G24-34KT AROUND 21Z TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT TO AROUND 5-10KT AFTER 03Z. SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT AS WELL. NO RAIN EXPECTED NEAR TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MIN RHS STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LOWLAND MIN RHS WILL BE 20-30% AND 40-50% IN
THE AREA MOUNTAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 MPH SUSTAINED
BUT LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR NORMAL TO JUST
ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR,
RAIN SHOWERS, AND WINDY CONDITIONS. ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT DRY ELSEWHERE,
AND DRY WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 61 85 60 83 / 20 0 20 0
LAS CRUCES 56 81 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 59 81 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 60 43 58 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 80 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 72 48 69 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 55 82 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 79 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 84 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 62 87 60 86 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 65 92 64 91 / 0 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 58 78 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 63 89 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 60 83 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 84 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 56 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 56 84 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 85 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 82 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 51 74 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 48 71 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 49 69 47 68 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 45 73 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 52 78 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 53 80 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 69 42 68 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 50 75 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 54 76 52 74 / 10 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 50 71 48 69 / 10 10 0 10
FAYWOOD 52 75 51 73 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 55 80 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 55 81 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 83 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 52 75 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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