193
FNUS74 KEPZ 122011
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR SMOKEY BEAR ADMIN PILE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
211 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0000 MDT ON OCTOBER 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT BREEZES OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS BECOMING BREEZY.
WINDS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BUT SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. MIN RHS STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES (70-85%)
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS, RAIN SHOWERS, AND MUCH
COLDER AIR.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8500 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........18 18 19
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0
TEMP............54 52 51
RH..............83 86 86
20 FT WIND......SW 7 SW 8 SW 8
20 FT WIND GUST.12 14 15
MIX HGT (FT)....800 600 600
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 17 SW 16 SW 16
VRATE KT-FT/1K..12 9 9
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 32 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 26 MPH INCREASING TO 24 TO 28
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (93000 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........24 24 8 12 12 8
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............49 53 61 67 70 71
RH..............89 74 58 42 36 36
20 FT WIND......SW 11 SW 11 SW 16 SW 18 SW 18 SW 16
20 FT WIND GUST.23 23 31 32 32 31
MIX HGT (FT)....600 800 2000 3000 3900 3700
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 17 SW 17 SW 24 SW 28 SW 26 SW 25
VRATE KT-FT/1K..9 12 55 84 93 81
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD GOOD
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 23 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 13
MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (59000 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
SKY (%).........18 9 8 7
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............64 55 52 50
RH..............48 66 74 77
20 FT WIND......SW 10G21 SW 6G13 SW 5G9 SW 5G9
MIX HGT (FT)....2900 1100 600 600
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 23 SW 17 SW 14 SW 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..59 16 7 5
VENTRATE CAT....FAIR POOR POOR POOR
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 31 MPH
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 23
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (100400 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
SKY (%).........9 3 4
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0
TEMP............47 60 69
RH..............86 58 33
20 FT WIND......SW 8G17 SW 15G29 SW 17G31
MIX HGT (FT)....500 4200 5100
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 12 SW 22 SW 22
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 84 96
VENTRATE CAT....POOR GOOD GOOD
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
FRIDAY
COOLER. PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS AROUND 50. EAST WINDS AROUND 18 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. EAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
FORECASTER...SLUSHER
REQUESTED BY...JON CRANE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2623630.0/EPZ
.DELDT 10/12/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JONATHAN.CRANE@USDA.GOV
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