222
FXUS64 KEPZ 130438
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1038 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1033 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
- MOSTLY DRY, BREEZY, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- COLD BLAST OF AIR WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
- IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS ON FRIDAY WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR
LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
WE WILL HAVE A NICE COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE AND
MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE A BIG CHANGES TO OUR WEATHER BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST. MANY TIMES A PATTERN LIKE THIS WOULD
DRAW UP MOISTURE, BUT FOR THIS TIME WE ARE MOVING IN DRIER AIR.
SOME OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF HURRICANE
SIMON, WILL BE DRAWN UP TO OUR EAST (THOUGH JUST TO OUR EAST).
MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
ONE EXCEPTION BEING HUDSPETH COUNTY WHICH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN BOTH AFTERNOONS, AS IT IS CLOSER TO SOME OF THAT
TROPICAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGES WEST OF RIVER.
ON THURSDAY OUR WEATHER STARTS TO CHANGE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WAS TO OUR NORTHWEST, WILL PUSH EAST, BUT A CHUNK OF ENERGY
WILL CARVE AND FORM A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RETROGRADE
BACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR. HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL SEE A BAND
OF STRONG WINDS PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS TO 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS JUST TO THE WEST OF
AREA MOUNTAINS. THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN ON
FRIDAY, BUT MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH THOSE BRISK EAST
WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL TRY AND LIFT
SOME OF THE MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL GIVE LOTS
OF CLOUDS AND COULD GIVE US A SOME PRECIPITATION BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE EXTENDED DETERMINISTIC GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT THE EXTENDED DETERMINISTIC EC BRINGS
A GOOD AREA OF RAIN AND MAYBE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW (YES I SAID
SNOW) TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. IF
THE EC MODEL IS RIGHT, FRIDAY WILL BE A WET, COLD AND DREARY DAY,
IF THE GFS IS CORRECT IS WILL BE COOL AND BRISK. EITHER WAY IT
WILL CERTAINLY FINALLY FEEL LIKE FALL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TONIGHT WE WILL HAVE
UNLIMITED CEILINGS. ON TUESDAY WE WILL SEE LOW TO MID CLOUDS BOTH
WEST IN ARIZONA AND EAST IN CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT FOR US, OUR SKIES
WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. FOR WINDS, JUST LIKE TODAY, WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT TONIGHT, BUT WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF LOW END
WIND GUSTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE WIND GUSTS WILL LAST TILL
AROUND SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. MIN RHS STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EACH AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN HUDSPETH BOTH
AFTERNOONS. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, RAIN SHOWERS, AND WINDY
EASTERLY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE INT'L BORDER AND ESPECIALLY WINDY FOR WEST FACING SLOPES.
EXPECTING CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MIN RHS IN THE LOWLANDS WILL BE 20-30% AND 40-50% IN THE AREA
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BREEZY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 MPH
SUSTAINED. 20 FT WINDS THURSDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREEZINESS BUT AFTER SUNSET THAT NIGHT, EXPECT
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS (20 FT WINDS 15-30 MPH SUSTAINED). BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 20-30 MPH.
LINGERING BREEZINESS EARLY SATURDAY MOSTLY FOR LOCATIONS CLOSE BY
THE AZ BORDER BUT THEN WINDS RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT DIPS TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY POST-COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 62 83 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 61 83 59 80 / 20 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 56 79 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 59 80 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 58 43 56 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 78 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 70 47 67 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 55 80 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 77 52 73 / 0 0 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 82 63 81 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 62 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 65 90 64 88 / 10 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 58 76 57 75 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 63 86 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 60 81 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 82 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 56 79 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 56 82 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 83 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 80 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 51 72 49 70 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 48 69 47 67 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 49 67 47 65 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 45 71 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 52 77 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 53 78 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 68 42 66 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 50 74 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 54 75 51 73 / 10 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 50 70 48 68 / 10 10 10 0
FAYWOOD 52 73 51 71 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 55 79 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 55 79 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 81 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 52 73 50 72 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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