202
FNUS74 KEPZ 131230
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR SMOKEY BEAR ADMIN PILES RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
630 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 MDT ON OCTOBER 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MIN RHS STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, DESPITE AFTERNOON BREEZES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE
EAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY, WITH SOME
SHOWERS.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 27 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 29 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (92700 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........16 3 3 3 7
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............52 61 67 70 71
RH..............74 56 40 35 36
20 FT WIND......SW 13 SW 16 SW 19 SW 19 SW 17
20 FT WIND GUST.18 21 27 27 23
MIX HGT (FT)....2000 2900 3500 3700 3700
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 20 SW 28 SW 29 SW 28 SW 25
VRATE KT-FT/1K..41 72 91 93 83
VENTRATE CAT....FAIR GOOD GOOD GOOD GOOD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MAX HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTS TO
29 MPH EARLY EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 23 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (58100 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........9 9 9 11 11 9
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............64 57 55 53 51 50
RH..............48 59 64 69 71 74
20 FT WIND......SW 11 SW 11 SW 7 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.29 19 12 10 10 10
MIX HGT (FT)....2900 1200 800 600 600 600
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 23 SW 17 SW 17 SW 14 SW 15 SW 14
VRATE KT-FT/1K..58 28 10 7 7 5
VENTRATE CAT....FAIR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO
15 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 36 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 21
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (113700 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........8 3 4 8
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............48 56 65 69
RH..............77 66 41 33
20 FT WIND......SW 8G23 SW 14G32 SW 18G36 SW 15G35
MIX HGT (FT)....600 2300 4100 4000
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 16 SW 23 SW 31 SW 26
VRATE KT-FT/1K..17 47 114 106
VENTRATE CAT....POOR FAIR VYGD VYGD
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
FRIDAY
COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
FORECASTER...HEFNER
REQUESTED BY...JON CRANE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2623656.0/EPZ
.DELDT 10/13/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JONATHAN.CRANE@USDA.GOV
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