369
FXUS64 KEPZ 131737
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1137 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
- A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH WIND
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
MOUNTAIN WEST SLOPES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOWLAND ZONES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS MAY LEAD TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ON SATURDAY.
- MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, FAVORING WEST TEXAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW, WE REMAIN EMBEDDED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND RIDGE OVER THE GULF. THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE PATTERNS REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST KEEPING US IN A DRIER REGION. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IMPACTING OUR AREA WOULD JUST SCRAPE HUDSPETH COUNTY. OTHERWISE,
WIDESPREAD DRY, SEASONABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE RUN ABOVE NORMAL WHILE
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE RIVER RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BECAUSE
OF THE TWO DISTINCT AIR MASSES WE ARE CURRENTLY EMBEDDED BETWEEN.
MAIN HEADLINE FOR THIS FORECAST IS A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST
SIGNIFICANT COOL AIR INTRUSION OF THE COOL SEASON. STRONG EAST
WINDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY IT, LEADING TO A
STRETCH OF GLOOMY, BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS WHEN WE NOTICE A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRODUCES A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL INVOKE A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY PRIMARILY
IMPACTING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF OUR AREA MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURE
ADVECTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEAST WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE COLDER
RESULTING IN A TEMPERATURE DECREASE OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES. THESE
WIND GUSTS OVER THE SACS AND BOOTHEEL WILL LIKELY EXCEED 50 MPH
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 35 MPH HOLDING OUT OVER HUDSPETH AND EL
PASO COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE
WESTERN REGIONS OF OUR CWA REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD BY WEEK'S END THOUGH
CURRENT LONG RANGE RUNS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED AND SEEM TO SCRAPE
THE GILA, EASTERN HUDSPETH, AND THE SACS ONCE AGAIN. SINCE THIS
MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO A NOTICEABLY COOLER AREA, THE POSSIBILITY
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WIDESPREAD LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS DOMINATE THE GFS ON SATURDAY, BUT
THE EC KEEPS THIS MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF OUR WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH BREEZY SW WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY. SURFACE WINDS INCREASING NEXT FEW HOURS TO 220-250
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. PEAK GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS SW NM. SKIES
FEW-SCT080. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS 230-280 AOB
8 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
LOW FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ERCS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO GOOD
VENT RATES. MIN RH 25-35% FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT,
LEADING TO A WIND SHIFT AND STRONG OVERNIGHT WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY FOR MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND WEST SLOPES. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF LNF, WHICH MAY LEAD TO DOWNED
TREES. FRIDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COLD, WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. UPPER ELEVATIONS OF LNF MAY ALSO SEE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
ON SATURDAY. MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS 0.01-0.10" OVER NM
MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 61 82 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 60 81 56 78 / 10 0 0 20
LAS CRUCES 55 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 58 78 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 55 39 58 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 77 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 66 41 71 / 10 10 0 0
DEMING 54 76 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 72 46 76 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 81 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 61 84 57 80 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 65 89 62 86 / 10 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 58 74 54 74 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 62 85 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 59 79 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 60 80 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 56 77 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 56 79 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 81 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 78 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 50 70 44 68 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 48 67 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 47 65 44 66 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 45 69 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 53 75 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 53 76 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 66 35 71 / 10 10 0 0
HURLEY 49 70 42 73 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 53 73 43 78 / 20 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 49 67 40 73 / 30 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 52 70 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 76 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 54 76 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 79 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 51 72 47 74 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-WEST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT/42-FARLOW
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