634
FXUS64 KEPZ 141211
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
611 AM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 539 AM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
- DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS.
- A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG MOUNTAIN WEST SLOPES.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER AREA MOUNTAINS MAY LEAD TO A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX SATURDAY MORNING.
- MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FAVORING WEST TEXAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT-TERM AS AN
UPPER LOW SCOOTS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. A TRAILING FRONT WILL KEEP
MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES JUST EAST OF OUR AREA FOR WED. DRIER AIR
UNDERNEATH THE LOW WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR WITH WSW WINDS OF 10-
20 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH WED AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT N AND E DURING
THE DAY ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS THAN WED. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVES THU EVENING FROM THE NE, BRINGING STRONG
E WINDS TO THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC
HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT IS MORE IN-LINE WITH WHAT WE TEND TO SEE IN
THE MIDDLE OF WINTER (1045MB-ISH). THIS WILL RESULT IN AN IMPRESSIVE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. WEST
MTN SLOPES WILL SEE THE GUSTIEST WINDS, REACHING 60 MPH OR HIGHER
FOR PEAK GUSTS. GENERALLY 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE MODELED
WITH A POCKET OF LIGHTER WINDS FROM LAS CRUCES UP TO HOLLOMAN AFB.
NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE HIGH WIND WATCH THAT'S IN EFFECT
THU NIGHT-FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO AT
LEAST AN ADVISORY AT SOME POINT WED WITH MORE ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT THU
INTO FRI MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS LASTING THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD LIMIT BLOWING DUST CONCERNS COMING OUT OF E
NM AND W TX, BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE HIGH WINDS.
A LOBE OF ENERGY IS MODELED TO BREAK OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW ON THU,
PULLING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK. LOW-
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES MOVE IN THU NIGHT FOR FAR WEST TX, LASTING
THROUGH FRI. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DRIFT NW INTO SAT.
HUDSPETH COUNTY IS FORECAST TO SEE THE MOST RAIN WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS (0.25-0.5" FOR NBM 50TH %-ILE
THROUGH FRI, 1.5-2.5" FOR 90TH %-ILE). ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CAN
BE SEEN, MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN HUDSPETH. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH
AS YOU HEAD N AND W. THE MUCH COOLER TEMPS MAY RESULT IN AN EARLY-
SEASON RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN SAT AM IF THE MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED FAR ENOUGH NORTH AROUND THE UPPER LOW. LITTLE TO NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED DUE TO THE WARM GROUND TEMPS.
THE CUT-OFF LOW OFF BAJA SHOULD BE PICKED UP BY A PASSING UPPER
TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH ON SUN, SHOVING MOST OF THE MOISTURE
EASTWARD, BUT LEAVING SOME OVER THE BIG BEND REGION. THIS REMNANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SCOOPED UP BY THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW INTO
MIDWEEK, BRINGING MORE RAIN/STORM CHANCES TO END THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS FOR THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH TO UNSEASONABLY COOL LEVELS (HIGHS 15-25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) BEHIND THU NIGHT'S FRONT. HIGHS STRUGGLE TO
REACH 60F FOR THE LOWLANDS FRI AND SAT WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ONGOING. IT'LL FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY FALL WITH
SOME SPOTS EXPECTED TO SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON SAT OR
SUN AM AS WINDS CALM DOWN. TEMPERATURES REBOUND TOWARDS NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY OUR
CEILINGS ARE UNLIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND THOSE CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. LIKE YESTERDAY, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END
GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET.
THURSDAY EVENING A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND
THAT WILL SWING OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND GIVE US A LENGTHY
PERIOD OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. THE MAIN IMPACTED TAF SITES FOR
THE WINDS WILL BE KELP, KLRU AND KDMN. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WE WILL HAVE WINDS OF AT LEAST 08020G30KT WITH GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 611 AM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED TODAY AND MOST OF THURSDAY.
MIN RH'S TODAY WILL BE ABOVE 20% AND MIN RH'S ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS TO NEAR 30% IN
AREA MOUNTAINS. WE WILL HAVE LOW END GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ON THRUSDAY EVENING, A STRONG BACK DOOR (EAST TO WEST) COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL SWING OUR WINDS
AROUND TO THE EAST AND BE STRONG. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR
AND WEST OF AREA MOUNTAINS WHERE WE COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH. THOSE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY
WE WILL SEE LESS WINDS, BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MIN RH'S FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ABOVE 30% ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS, WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LOWLAND RAIN OR HIGH MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS LOOK LIGHT BOTH DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 81 53 60 / 0 0 20 30
SIERRA BLANCA 56 79 42 53 / 0 10 60 60
LAS CRUCES 51 76 52 61 / 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 52 78 49 63 / 0 0 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 38 58 27 37 / 0 0 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 72 50 63 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 41 71 46 59 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 49 76 51 63 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 46 77 52 63 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 80 55 59 / 0 0 10 30
DELL CITY 57 81 49 58 / 0 0 30 30
FORT HANCOCK 62 87 52 61 / 0 10 60 60
LOMA LINDA 54 75 44 51 / 0 0 30 30
FABENS 59 85 52 60 / 0 0 40 40
SANTA TERESA 54 79 53 59 / 0 0 10 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 55 79 53 64 / 0 0 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 49 77 50 63 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 49 78 51 66 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 53 79 54 62 / 0 0 10 20
OROGRANDE 52 77 50 61 / 0 0 10 20
MAYHILL 43 69 34 46 / 0 0 20 20
MESCALERO 42 70 35 49 / 0 0 10 20
TIMBERON 43 67 33 46 / 0 0 10 20
WINSTON 38 67 39 55 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 47 72 46 61 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 48 74 49 64 / 0 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 35 72 39 58 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 42 73 46 60 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 43 78 52 69 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 40 73 47 65 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 45 72 47 59 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 48 78 52 61 / 0 0 10 10
HACHITA 48 77 49 60 / 0 0 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 51 78 49 58 / 0 0 20 30
CLOVERDALE 47 74 48 55 / 0 0 10 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-WEST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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