673
FXUS64 KEPZ 151145
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
545 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
- A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG MOUNTAIN WEST SLOPES.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
VERY STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE COMING TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION IN COLORADO WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES TO
THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COOLER AIR FROM
CANADA WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND MOVE FURTHER SOUTH. A
VERY STRONG 1041 MB SURFACE HIGH IS DRIVING THIS AIR MASS
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO NEW MEXICO.
THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, REACHING THE EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES METRO
AREAS THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PACKING
AND A LOW LEVEL JET WITH THIS FRONT THAT WILL RESULT IN STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED
BEGIN THURSDAY EVENING AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY FOR OTERO, EL PASO,
AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COUNTIES ALONG WITH HIDALGO AND SOUTHERN
GRANT COUNTIES WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA ON
FRIDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG
WINDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY LEVELS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH, BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND WARNING LEVELS. BLOWING DUST IS
LIKELY WITH THE STRONG WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN EL PASO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES ALONG WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF DONA ANA, LUNA COUNTIES
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY EVENING. BLOWING DUST IS ALSO EXPECTED
ALONG THE PLAYAS IN HIDALGO COUNTY ON FRIDAY.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH DAY TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 60S
IN THE LOWLANDS. MANY AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 12 TO
16 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY REMAIN NEAR ZERO. A
POTENTIAL MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE AREA, HINTED AT BY PREVIOUS
MODEL FORECASTS, HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
FACTOR IN OUR LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
WETTER AND WARMER. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, PULLING SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE BOOTHEEL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE PRECIP
WILL BE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO THE NORTH AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THIS
MORNING. OUR CEILINGS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE UNLIMITED, BUT
THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE WINDS. TONIGHT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
(EAST TO WEST) WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SWITCH
OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND INCREASE THEM SIGNIFICANTLY. BY
LATE THIS EVENING WE WILL HAVE STRONG EAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50+ KNOTS. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT
KELP AND KDMN, WITH A LITTLE LOWER WINDS AT KLRU AND KTCS. THE
WINDS WILL BLOW ALL NIGHT LONG.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
WE WILL START THE DAY OFF NICELY WITH SOME LOW END BREEZY WINDS
AND MIN RH'S IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE
30'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS. THEN THIS EVENING A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
SWING OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND THEY WILL BECOME VERY
STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. MIN RH'S
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN
THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS. FOR SUNDAY INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WE WILL BE WARMER BUT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 54 63 46 63 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 47 56 37 58 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 49 64 43 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 48 67 40 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 27 40 24 45 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 65 43 61 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 45 60 39 57 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 50 65 44 62 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 51 64 46 60 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 63 48 62 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 52 62 41 61 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 54 65 46 67 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 45 54 39 55 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 65 46 65 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 62 46 61 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 67 45 63 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 48 66 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 49 69 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 53 64 48 62 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 49 64 42 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 34 49 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 32 51 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 33 49 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 36 56 33 55 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 46 63 40 60 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 46 66 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 59 34 59 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 45 62 39 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 50 70 44 66 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 45 66 42 62 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 46 61 41 58 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 53 63 46 61 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 50 62 44 60 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 50 61 44 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 48 57 42 57 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EASTERN
BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES
VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES
BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR
EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-OTERO MESA-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA
BASIN-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-NORTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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