816
FXUS64 KEPZ 161208
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
608 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 548 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT,
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG MOUNTAIN WEST SLOPES.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
A POTENT COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE BORDERLAND THIS EVENING,
BRINGING STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND IT. GUSTS OVER 50 MPH HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SEEN E OF THE US 54 CORRIDOR. THE STRENGTH OF THE
SFC HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT IS MORE IN-LINE WITH WHAT WE TEND TO SEE
IN THE MIDDLE OF WINTER (1045MB-ISH OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
FRI). THIS WILL RESULT IN AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH IN THE NEAR-TERM. WEST MTN
SLOPES WILL SEE THE GUSTIEST WINDS, REACHING 60 MPH OR HIGHER. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY FRI
AM WITH WINDS EASING A BIT DURING THE DAY ON FRI AND SHIFTING
MORE EASTERLY. GENERALLY 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE MODELED
WITH A POCKET OF LIGHTER WINDS FROM LAS CRUCES UP TOWARDS HOLLOMAN
AFB. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WIND HEADLINES. FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
DUST MODELS, INCLUDING THE RRFS AND NOAA AQ MODEL, SHOW A SIGNAL FOR
BLOWING DUST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, FAVORING S OTERO COUNTY AND FAR
WEST TX. LOW CHANCE OF 1 MILE VIS IN ISOLATED AREAS, MOST LIKELY IN
EL PASO COUNTY. ANY DUST LIFTED OFF WHITE SANDS SHOULD GET BLOCKED
BY THE SAN ANDRES AND STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER RGV. THE DUST
THREAT LOWERS FRI AM AND SHIFTS OUT W TOWARDS THE LORDSBURG PLAYA
WHERE WINDS REMAIN STRONG. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SEEING DUST
IMPACTS IN HIDALGO CO COMPARED TO EASTERN AREAS, WHERE BLDU
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM FRI.
AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF FROM THE FLOW OFF THE BAJA COAST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK, PULLING MOISTURE INTO IT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM THE NW AT THE SAME TIME, KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE
TO OUR SOUTH. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WINDS SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT. THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE
ON SUN, BRINGING SOME OF ITS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES FOR WESTERN AREAS. THEN, A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM DIVES
DOWN THE WEST COAST, PULLING MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH MIDWEEK FROM THE PACIFIC. PWS CLIMB TOWARDS 1" WITH LOW-
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES AREA-WIDE LATE IN THE PERIOD. A LOW FLOOD
THREAT IS PRESENT AS NBM 90TH %-ILE SHOWS 24-HR RAIN AMOUNTS OF
1-2" WED AND THU. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN IMPACTS FOR THIS MIDWEEK
RAIN EVENT.
TEMPERATURES CRASH TO UNSEASONABLY COOL LEVELS (HIGHS 10-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL) BEHIND TONIGHT'S FRONT. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
60S ARE FORECAST THROUGH SAT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. IT'LL
FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY FALL, ESPECIALLY IN THE SACS FRI AM
AS WIND CHILLS REACH THE TEENS. LOWLAND AREAS TO THE N AND E ARE
LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE 30S SAT AM WITH PATCHY FROST. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND TOWARDS NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT THINGS
WILL FINALLY SLOWDOWN LATER THIS EVENING. WE WILL SEE OCCASIONAL
LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST. BUT VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY AT VFR CONDITIONS. KELP HAS SOME HIGH CLOUDS, BUT
THOSE WILL MOVE OFF LATER THIS MORNING AND WE WILL HAVE UNLIMITED
CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 548 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A COLD FRONT USHERED IN STRONG WINDS AND SOME BLOWING DUST THIS
MORNING. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY, BEFORE SLOWING THIS EVENING. MIN RH'S TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20'S IN
AREA MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL START BOTH A WARMING TREND AND
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BACK IN
THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MIN RH'S ABOVE 30% ACROSS
THE AREA. VENTILATION RATES TODAY WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
AND THEN A LITTLE LOWER ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 44 64 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 37 59 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 41 61 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 38 61 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 23 46 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 41 61 45 68 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 38 58 41 64 / 0 0 10 10
DEMING 42 63 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 44 61 48 69 / 0 0 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 47 63 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 39 61 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 45 68 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 37 55 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 45 66 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 44 62 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 44 64 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 39 62 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 40 64 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 46 63 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 39 62 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 27 56 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 28 58 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 27 53 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 32 56 37 63 / 0 0 10 10
HILLSBORO 40 60 43 67 / 0 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 37 61 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 33 60 37 66 / 0 0 10 20
HURLEY 38 59 40 66 / 0 0 10 10
CLIFF 44 67 47 72 / 0 0 20 20
MULE CREEK 40 63 44 67 / 0 0 20 20
FAYWOOD 39 58 42 65 / 0 0 10 10
ANIMAS 46 62 47 70 / 0 0 10 10
HACHITA 43 60 45 69 / 0 0 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 63 45 70 / 0 0 10 10
CLOVERDALE 42 58 44 69 / 0 0 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500
FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SIERRA
COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR OTERO MESA-
SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA
VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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