387
FXUS64 KEPZ 161753
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1153 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1152 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT,
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG MOUNTAIN WEST SLOPES.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
A POTENT COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE BORDERLAND THIS EVENING,
BRINGING STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND IT. GUSTS OVER 50 MPH HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SEEN E OF THE US 54 CORRIDOR. THE STRENGTH OF THE
SFC HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT IS MORE IN-LINE WITH WHAT WE TEND TO SEE
IN THE MIDDLE OF WINTER (1045MB-ISH OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
FRI). THIS WILL RESULT IN AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH IN THE NEAR-TERM. WEST MTN
SLOPES WILL SEE THE GUSTIEST WINDS, REACHING 60 MPH OR HIGHER. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY FRI
AM WITH WINDS EASING A BIT DURING THE DAY ON FRI AND SHIFTING
MORE EASTERLY. GENERALLY 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE MODELED
WITH A POCKET OF LIGHTER WINDS FROM LAS CRUCES UP TOWARDS HOLLOMAN
AFB. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WIND HEADLINES. FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
DUST MODELS, INCLUDING THE RRFS AND NOAA AQ MODEL, SHOW A SIGNAL FOR
BLOWING DUST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, FAVORING S OTERO COUNTY AND FAR
WEST TX. LOW CHANCE OF 1 MILE VIS IN ISOLATED AREAS, MOST LIKELY IN
EL PASO COUNTY. ANY DUST LIFTED OFF WHITE SANDS SHOULD GET BLOCKED
BY THE SAN ANDRES AND STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER RGV. THE DUST
THREAT LOWERS FRI AM AND SHIFTS OUT W TOWARDS THE LORDSBURG PLAYA
WHERE WINDS REMAIN STRONG. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SEEING DUST
IMPACTS IN HIDALGO CO COMPARED TO EASTERN AREAS, WHERE BLDU
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM FRI.
AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF FROM THE FLOW OFF THE BAJA COAST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK, PULLING MOISTURE INTO IT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM THE NW AT THE SAME TIME, KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE
TO OUR SOUTH. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WINDS SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT. THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE
ON SUN, BRINGING SOME OF ITS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES FOR WESTERN AREAS. THEN, A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM DIVES
DOWN THE WEST COAST, PULLING MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH MIDWEEK FROM THE PACIFIC. PWS CLIMB TOWARDS 1" WITH LOW-
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES AREA-WIDE LATE IN THE PERIOD. A LOW FLOOD
THREAT IS PRESENT AS NBM 90TH %-ILE SHOWS 24-HR RAIN AMOUNTS OF
1-2" WED AND THU. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN IMPACTS FOR THIS MIDWEEK
RAIN EVENT.
TEMPERATURES CRASH TO UNSEASONABLY COOL LEVELS (HIGHS 10-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL) BEHIND TONIGHT'S FRONT. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
60S ARE FORECAST THROUGH SAT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. IT'LL
FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY FALL, ESPECIALLY IN THE SACS FRI AM
AS WIND CHILLS REACH THE TEENS. LOWLAND AREAS TO THE N AND E ARE
LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE 30S SAT AM WITH PATCHY FROST. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND TOWARDS NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL START TO SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT.
WINDS OUT IN WESTERN NM (LIKE KDMN) AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN STAYS
QUITE BREEZY TONIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BECOME BREEZY AS WELL BUT NOT TO
THE LEVEL THAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT OR TODAY. BREEZIER WINDS OUT IN
KDMN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 548 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A COLD FRONT USHERED IN STRONG WINDS AND SOME BLOWING DUST THIS
MORNING. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY, BEFORE SLOWING THIS EVENING. MIN RH'S TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20'S IN
AREA MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL START BOTH A WARMING TREND AND
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BACK IN
THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MIN RH'S ABOVE 30% ACROSS
THE AREA. VENTILATION RATES TODAY WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
AND THEN A LITTLE LOWER ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 43 64 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 35 60 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 39 62 43 65 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 37 62 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 22 47 32 51 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 39 62 46 65 / 0 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 37 59 43 61 / 0 0 30 40
DEMING 41 64 45 66 / 0 0 0 20
LORDSBURG 43 62 48 65 / 0 0 40 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 46 64 49 68 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 37 62 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 44 69 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 35 56 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 43 67 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 42 63 45 67 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 42 65 45 68 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 38 63 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 39 65 45 69 / 0 0 0 20
COLUMBUS 45 64 48 68 / 0 0 0 20
OROGRANDE 37 63 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 26 57 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 26 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 25 54 33 56 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 31 56 38 60 / 0 0 10 20
HILLSBORO 38 61 44 63 / 0 0 0 20
SPACEPORT 35 63 43 65 / 0 0 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 32 62 38 64 / 0 0 30 30
HURLEY 37 60 42 63 / 0 0 10 30
CLIFF 43 69 49 69 / 0 0 40 40
MULE CREEK 40 64 46 64 / 0 0 30 40
FAYWOOD 37 59 43 62 / 0 0 0 30
ANIMAS 45 63 48 67 / 0 0 30 30
HACHITA 42 62 46 65 / 0 0 20 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 64 46 67 / 0 0 10 20
CLOVERDALE 41 60 45 66 / 0 0 30 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWLANDS
OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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