670
FXUS64 KEPZ 171220
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
620 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 528 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL
REBOUND NICELY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
BY TUESDAY.
- BREEZY EAST FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH MIDDAY GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
- DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND, THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. LONG TERM FORECAST FAVORS RENEWED
RAIN CHANCES AREA WIDE, ESPECIALLY INTO THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
FLOODING FOR SOME AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN AT THE MOMENT DEPICTS A STAGNANT, ORPHANED
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND RIDGING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIXED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
EXTENDING WEST INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
EAST FLOW AND COOL OCTOBER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY BEHIND LAST THURSDAY NIGHT'S STRONG COLD FRONT. WE MAY BE
IN FOR THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TONIGHT, DIPPING TO
THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH LOWLAND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 60S. THIS IS 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA, GENERALLY 10 TO 15
MPH WITH SOME LINGERING GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE AZ/NM STATE
LINE.
THE TEMPERATURE REBOUND BEGINS ON SUNDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
FROM THE EAST LESSENS. LOWLAND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S, AN 8 TO 10-DEGREE WARMUP FROM SATURDAY. MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH MAY LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVERAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, AND MAYBE EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINS ARE EXPECTED HERE.
ORPHANED LOW FINALLY OPENS UP INTO A WAVE ON MONDAY, PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.8-1.0" AND
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER 50-KNOT JET ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES SEEM QUITE
SPOTTY WITH THIS EVENT, AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL LOOKS TO BE IN
THE T-0.10" RANGE. NO FLOOD RISK HERE.
LATE WEEK WEATHER PATTERN FAVORS A STRONG WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES,
RETURNING THE SEASONAL AVERAGES (MAYBE EVEN A BIT WARMER THAN
NORMAL) TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM CONFIDENCE IN STRONG,
MERIDIONAL JET FLOW DIVING DOWN THE PACIFIC SEABOARD MIDWEEK,
SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP PACIFIC LOW AND THUS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR RAIN CHANCES. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO PLAY
OUT AROUND THE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT IT HONESTLY LOOKS
LIKE WE'RE FACING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN CHANCES WITH A TRAIN OF
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. WHILE QPF IN LATE OCTOBER WILL BE GENERALLY LOWER
THAN SEPTEMBER DUE TO THE END OF MONSOONAL FLOW, LESS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL, AND SPEED OF THESE SYSTEMS, THERE IS STILL A RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. ANY HEAVY RAINS THAT FALL WILL OCCUR
OVER SATURATED SOILS FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THERE ARE SOME MID CLOUDS
SNEAKING UP FROM MEXICO AND THAT COULD GIVE US SOME OFF AND ON
MID AND HIGH CEILINGS TODAY OF SCT-BKN120-150. BY THIS AFTERNOON
WE WILL HAVE UNLIMITED CEILINGS AND THOSE CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE WE WILL SEE LESS WINDS TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY, BUT MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE OCCASIONAL LOW END
WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BEFORE WE SEE GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO
THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WE WILL SEE LESS WINDS TODAY AFTER YESTERDAY'S STRONG WINDS. OUR
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TODAY AND WILL BE OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY, BUT THE WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. THE MIN RH'S
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE
20'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS. ON SUNDAY WE WILL SEE THE START OF A
WARMING TREND ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MIN RH'S VALUES
ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH MOST OF THE COMING WEEK, WILL RUN AT OR
ABOVE 30%. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO FORECAST, FIRST WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE ON SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EACH DAY THIS
COMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 46 72 55 79 / 0 0 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 37 68 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 43 68 50 74 / 0 0 10 20
ALAMOGORDO 41 68 50 75 / 0 0 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 32 53 39 56 / 0 0 0 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 68 51 73 / 0 0 10 20
SILVER CITY 41 64 47 68 / 0 10 20 60
DEMING 45 69 51 75 / 0 0 20 20
LORDSBURG 48 69 53 74 / 10 20 20 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 49 71 57 78 / 0 0 10 10
DELL CITY 39 70 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 46 77 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 39 65 50 72 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 46 75 55 82 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 46 70 54 76 / 0 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 45 70 54 77 / 0 0 10 30
JORNADA RANGE 43 69 51 75 / 0 0 10 20
HATCH 45 72 51 78 / 0 0 20 20
COLUMBUS 48 71 55 77 / 0 0 20 20
OROGRANDE 41 69 49 75 / 0 0 0 20
MAYHILL 35 66 45 69 / 0 0 0 30
MESCALERO 35 64 42 68 / 0 0 0 30
TIMBERON 33 58 41 64 / 0 0 0 20
WINSTON 37 63 42 67 / 0 10 10 50
HILLSBORO 44 67 49 72 / 0 0 20 30
SPACEPORT 43 68 49 73 / 0 0 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 37 67 42 67 / 0 0 20 70
HURLEY 41 66 46 70 / 0 10 20 50
CLIFF 49 73 52 75 / 10 10 20 60
MULE CREEK 46 68 49 71 / 10 20 30 50
FAYWOOD 43 65 49 70 / 0 0 20 40
ANIMAS 48 70 52 76 / 10 20 20 40
HACHITA 46 69 51 75 / 0 10 10 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 71 53 77 / 0 10 10 40
CLOVERDALE 45 70 52 73 / 10 20 20 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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