917
FXUS64 KEPZ 181131
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
531 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 516 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FAVORING WESTERN AREAS.
- BETTER AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SOME
STRONG STORMS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WV IMAGERY SHOWING MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST. SOME SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA, PARTIALLY
FROM TRUDY. THE BAJA LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAW IN
MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. PWS WILL APPROACH
ONE INCH BY MONDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME SHOWERS ON SUNDAY
BUT PROBABLY MOSTLY WEST OF THE RG VALLEY. BETTER CHANCES AREA
WIDE ON MONDAY. INSTABILITY INCREASES ON MONDAY SO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE (PWS AND DEWPOINTS) REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH, BUT NOT MUCH HELP ALOFT. HENCE JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NEXT PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO SOCAL THURSDAY AND
OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. THIS LOW IS ABLE TO SCOOP MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE UP AS PWS APPROACH 1.2 INCHES. THAT IS WELL OVER
200% OF NORMAL. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON THE
SPEED OF THE LOW EXITING. SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE CONCENTRATED MORE
FROM THE RG VALLEY EAST FRIDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ECMWF SHOWS TROUGH EXITING QUICKLY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS BREAKS OFF A CLOSED LOW FROM THE EXITING
TROUGH AND KEEPS IT OVER ARIZONA BOTH DAYS, SUGGESTING MORE RAIN
FOR THE AREA. NBM GRIDS LEANING TO THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS PROGRESS NE-WARD TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
THROUGH KLRU. NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED TS DEVELOP IN SE ARIZONA DURING THE AFTERNOON, DRIFTING
TOWARDS KDMN BY THE EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTION
REACHING TERMINALS AFTER 0Z, BUT KDMN IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
IMPACTS. KELP SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH 12Z MON. WINDS AOB 8KTS
WITH SOME VARIABILITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH AND A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT WEST THIS EVENING. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE WEST OF RIO GRANDE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT. LOW RAIN CHANCES FAVOR
WESTERN AREAS INTO MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS STAY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID-OCTOBER. CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES AREA-WIDE THURSDAY WITH
A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS WINDS FAVOR A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 30-45% TODAY, THEN 35-60% INTO MIDWEEK.
VENTILATION WILL BE MOSTLY POOR THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR THE
GILA WHERE FAIR TO GOOD RATES ARE EXPECTED. VENT RATES IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY TO MOSTLY FAIR-GOOD BY TUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 79 59 84 / 10 20 40 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 77 54 82 / 0 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 52 77 54 80 / 0 20 50 0
ALAMOGORDO 50 75 55 81 / 0 20 40 10
CLOUDCROFT 40 59 42 61 / 0 20 30 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 51 74 54 78 / 10 50 60 20
SILVER CITY 49 69 51 72 / 40 50 70 40
DEMING 51 76 52 81 / 10 40 50 10
LORDSBURG 52 74 55 79 / 30 50 60 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 78 62 83 / 10 20 40 0
DELL CITY 51 79 55 84 / 0 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 56 84 61 89 / 0 10 20 0
LOMA LINDA 52 75 55 79 / 0 10 30 0
FABENS 55 82 60 87 / 10 10 30 0
SANTA TERESA 54 77 57 83 / 10 20 40 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 56 77 58 83 / 0 20 50 0
JORNADA RANGE 49 75 54 80 / 0 20 50 10
HATCH 53 78 56 83 / 10 40 50 10
COLUMBUS 55 78 58 84 / 10 30 40 0
OROGRANDE 48 75 54 81 / 0 10 40 0
MAYHILL 46 71 47 74 / 0 30 20 30
MESCALERO 44 69 46 72 / 0 30 30 20
TIMBERON 42 66 44 69 / 0 20 30 10
WINSTON 42 67 46 70 / 20 60 50 50
HILLSBORO 52 74 54 77 / 20 50 60 30
SPACEPORT 48 74 54 78 / 10 40 60 10
LAKE ROBERTS 42 69 43 71 / 40 60 70 60
HURLEY 46 72 48 75 / 30 60 60 30
CLIFF 45 76 47 80 / 40 60 70 50
MULE CREEK 41 72 43 75 / 20 60 70 40
FAYWOOD 50 72 53 75 / 20 50 60 30
ANIMAS 53 76 55 81 / 30 70 50 10
HACHITA 52 75 54 81 / 30 40 50 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 78 55 82 / 20 30 30 10
CLOVERDALE 53 74 54 78 / 30 60 40 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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