128
FXUS64 KEWX 150446 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1046 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WIND AND MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS DRIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.
NEVERTHELESS, A CLOUDLESS AND COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. FRIDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE
OF TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE
WARMER RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND INCREASES OVER THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU LATE MORNING TOMORROW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US WITH LIGHTER WIND ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 50S. THESE VALUES ARE RIGHT AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MID NOVEMBER.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
EXTEND FROM THE GULF TO THE GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
THE GREAT BASIN TO SOUTHERN CA. THE FLOW OVER TEXAS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY SATURDAY. WINDS
FROM THE GULF WILL MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEST TEXAS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
LIFT AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM WEST TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA
MONDAY AND PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL
BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. SPC THINKS THERE MAY BE INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, BUT THAT LOOKS MORE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH THAN OUR CWA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER
AIR WILL BE MORE EVIDENT IN THE MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
10 DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF MONDAY'S HIGHS. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
EXPECTED. WE SEE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IN THE HILL COUNTRY
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
LITTLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST AVIATION FORECASTS, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ALONG I-35 BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 17-18Z. FOR
DRT, EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
BEGINNING AROUND 16Z.
CLIMATE
AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE DATES (PERIODS OF RECORD)
ATT 11/29
SAT 11/30
DRT 12/02
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 45 76 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 39 76 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 45 78 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 45 74 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 52 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 43 74 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 45 79 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 43 77 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 42 77 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 48 77 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 48 80 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...04
AVIATION...PLATT
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