003
FXUS64 KEWX 151202
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
602 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
CHILLY TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING MAKES NOVEMBER FEELING MORE LIKE
WELL, NOVEMBER. A WEAKER ONSHORE WIND HANGS AROUND EAST COUNTIES
TODAY WITH A FEW HOURS OF ENE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE. THE WESTERN
COUNTIES ARE ALREADY SEEING A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DRT. THE ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO BECOME MORE UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TODAY, AND A RAPID SURGE IN 925 MB DEW POINTS ARE NOTED TO
OCCUR INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. THUS LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED ROLL IN OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN SOLID OVER THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. TONIGHT'S MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAT THOSE OF THIS MORNING, BUT
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL NOT ACHIEVE MUCH MORE THAN
THOSE OF TODAY DUE TO THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
SUGGESTED WITH THIS MOISTURE INFLUX, BUT MODELS DO SHOW A FEW
STREAMER SHOWERS APPROACHING THE UPPER TX COAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
A SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL JET CONTINUES THE WARMING AND MOISTENING
TREND INTO SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO STREAMER SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG THE US 77 CORRIDOR WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO MODEST CAPE AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS PLAINS STATES BY
MONDAY. THIS DRAGS A PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
TO AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. FORCING BY THE FRONT WILL GENERATE A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEST MLCAPE (500-1,000
J/KG) AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6-7.5 C/KM) REMAIN, LOW LEVEL (SFC-
6 KM) SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TO 50-60 KTS LEADING TO A
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS THE
MAIN THREAT. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU,
HILL COUNTRY, AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SURGES
INTO OUR AREA. A COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY/GUSTY
WINDS MAY BRING ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN, A SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MOVES INTO OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW LOW LYING SPOTS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT BRIEFLY REACHING FREEZING AROUND SUNRISE LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT, THE BEGINNINGS OF A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LEVEL COULD BRING
IN SOME MVFR CIGS TO APPROACH SAT/SSF AND THEN AUS WITHIN A COUPLE
HOURS LATER. THE CURRENT TIMING FOR THE ONSET OF CIGS IS SET TO A
TYPICAL TIME OF 09Z TO 11Z SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE EXTRA DRY AND
WELL MIXED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT THERE SHOULD BE BETTER DETAIL TO PROVIDE IN LATER
UPDATES AS MORE SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT DRT LATER TODAY, BUT THE I-35
SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY A SUSTAINED WIND OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AS THE
MIXING INCREASES.
CLIMATE
AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE DATES
ATT 11/29
SAT 11/30
DRT 12/02
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 53 81 64 82 / 0 0 10 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 51 81 63 83 / 0 0 10 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 53 84 64 86 / 0 0 10 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 51 77 62 79 / 0 0 0 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 82 65 83 / 0 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 49 78 62 79 / 0 0 10 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 53 80 62 85 / 0 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 51 81 62 83 / 0 0 10 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 51 80 65 82 / 0 0 10 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 56 81 65 84 / 0 0 10 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 56 83 65 86 / 0 0 10 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...18
LONG-TERM...04
AVIATION...18
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