216
FXUS64 KEWX 151947
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
147 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST HAS THE FLOW OVER
TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST IS
PRODUCING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE AIRMASS IS
STARTING TO MOISTEN, BUT DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 30S OVER MOST OF
THE CWA EXCEPT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE THEY ARE BACK UP INTO THE
50S. THIS MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT TO
MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LOWS AROUND 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO THE EAST SATURDAY. WARMER, MOISTER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
RETURN FROM THE GULF. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK IN THE 50S AND 60S BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MIDDLE 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S. MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
REDEVELOP AS WARMER, MOISTER AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT NO MEASURABLE RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE CWA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
A MORE PRONOUNCED SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GULF SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. STREAMER SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OR FORM SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY SHIFT NORTH OR EAST OF
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE EAST. ADDITIONALLY, SOME PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO BEGIN LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR VAL VERDE COUNTY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO
THE AREA.
THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE THE PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS
TIME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE AS A LINE, EVENTUALLY EXITING OUR
CWA MIDDAY TO LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MODEST, HIGH BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD. WHILE THERE COULD
BE SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR ANY FLOODING VERY LOW.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVE IN MONDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
BEFORE ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH TO THE NORTH BRINGS IN MUCH COOLER AIR
MID-WEEK. HIGHS LOOK TO BE COLDEST ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT DAY
TO DAY WARM UP IS SEEN THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH A FEW LOW LYING OR RURAL AREAS BRIEFLY
REACHING FREEZING NEAR SUNRISE. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
ALL AREA AIRPORTS. RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL BRING DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS
SHOULD BE MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO
AIRPORTS COULD DROP TO IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS SATURDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY AROUND NOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 53 80 63 83 / 0 0 10 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 51 80 62 84 / 0 0 10 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 53 83 63 87 / 0 0 0 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 52 77 61 81 / 0 0 0 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 81 65 82 / 0 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 50 79 62 82 / 0 0 10 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 53 80 62 86 / 0 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 51 80 62 84 / 0 0 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 52 80 64 84 / 0 0 10 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 55 80 65 85 / 0 0 0 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 55 82 65 87 / 0 0 0 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...05
LONG-TERM...27
AVIATION...05
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