731
FXUS64 KEWX 170455
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1055 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WE EXPECT TO SEE A FURTHER RESURGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WHICH WILL PROMOTE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
SPOTTY FOG. ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD MAINLY BE CONTAINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
ALL EYES TURN TOWARDS THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE START THIS TIME PERIOD OVER
THE BAJA PENINSULA BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST TO BE NEAR THE MIDLAND
AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES WE WILL SEE IT
GO FROM A NEGATIVE TILT TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT.
FOCUSING ON SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE EFFECTS OF
THE APPROACHING LOW WILL BE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME STREAMER
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. I WILL MENTION THAT
SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HI-RES MODELS DO SHOW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND PEAK HEATING, BUT THE MAJORITY
OF MODELS HOLD CONVECTION TO MORE OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.
SHIFTING TO THE SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE WARM SECTION
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE FRONT. THIS IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. FURTHER
EAST OVER THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY, A FEW DISCRETE STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS LINE. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THIS LINE SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY
AND APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH TO LIMIT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOCALIZED SPOTS MAY SEE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE AND EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME UNDER STREAMER SHOWERS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. SPC HAS KEPT THE SLIGHT
RISK OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
BE A LIMITING FACTOR AS MLCAPE LOOKS TO BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE. HOWEVER, BULK SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE 40-60KT
RANGE. AS SUCH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH
STORMS PARTICULARLY AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH. HAIL MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE
AHEAD OF THE LINE. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AS 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES RANGE IN THE 200-400 M^2/S^2.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY, ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AND THE COASTAL PLAINS. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD IS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CAN'T RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH AWAY
OF THE LOCAL AREA AND INTO EAST TEXAS MID TO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY.
HIGHEST STORM RAINFALL TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES OVER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS. AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO
ARE LIKELY TO GET ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE
FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH NORTHWEST BREEZY
WINDS BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE RIO GRANDE.
A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS.
SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH MID 80S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE COOLER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO BRINGS OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AREAS WITH THE
REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE 50S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BUT A DRY ONE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND SURGE OF DRY AND
COOLER AIRMASS IS BRINGING THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE FALL
SEASON SO FAR. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S TO 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.
AND HERE COMES THE COLD MORNING PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S AND LOWER 40S FOR THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AWAITS FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A MOIST
AIRMASS TO DRIVE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH
LOWER 80S TO THE SOUTHWEST/RIO GRANDE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP, WITH THE MAIN CHANGES IN THE
LATEST FORECAST CONSISTING OF AN EARLIER ONSET OF MVFR FOR THE I-35
CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, THE MODELS HINT AT SOME IFR AS WELL, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF GIVEN DECENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IFR IN THE
FORECAST OUT WEST FOR DRT BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR I-35. WE WILL ALSO
KEEP A MENTION OF -SHRA AT AUS BETWEEN 19-24Z. CIGS MAY TAKE A
LITTLE LONGER TO LIFT AT DRT AND WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS INTACT THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A PROB30 GROUP FOR DRT AFTER
18/00Z WITH CONVECTION INCREASING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 83 67 80 / 0 30 80 80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 62 84 67 80 / 0 40 70 80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 86 69 82 / 0 20 80 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 81 64 76 / 0 30 90 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 66 82 62 80 / 0 10 60 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 81 65 78 / 0 40 80 80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 62 85 66 78 / 0 10 80 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 85 67 80 / 0 30 70 80
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 65 84 70 81 / 20 70 50 90
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 64 84 68 79 / 0 20 80 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 63 86 70 81 / 0 10 70 60
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...18
AVIATION...PLATT
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